Getting a branded video to go hugely viral is like catching lightning in a bottle - it's hard to predict and very rare. But a viral video's huge branding benefits through free, or so-called "earned media" impressions, makes it extremely appealing.

Now Visible Measures, which has been tracking video viewership across devices for years, and Publicis Groupe's VivaKi and Starcom MediaVest have developed a planning tool called CONTAGION that uses data to help brands and agencies actually plan for how viral a branded video campaign could be. CONTAGION is launching today for use by Publicis Groupe agencies for a year before becoming available to the broader market.

CONTAGION taps into Visible Measures' massive dataset that has tracked 10,000 video campaigns, 500 million videos and 3 trillion video views. By looking at previous comparative campaigns, brands and agencies are better able to gauge what the earned media reach may be and exactly how they should drive it. This in turn allows the brand or agency to determine what level and type of paid media will achieve campaign objectives. Visible Measures tracks earned media using its "True Reach" metric, an MRC-accredited method for understanding viral exposure.

The partners envision CONTAGION being useful in at least 4 different circumstances: to amplify the reach of a big event sponsorship (e.g. Super Bowl, March Madness), drive greater awareness of a product launch, engender more engagement for brand positioning/repositioning efforts and increase product usage via how-to and longer-form videos.

CONTAGION's launch comes as the Digital Content NewFronts kick off - presentations by established and online-only video content providers seeking ad dollars from media buyers. However, one of the key differences in digital vs. traditional TV advertising is users' ability to magnify a campaign's impact by sharing which complements the level of paid media required to achieve objectives. CONTAGION is the first tool aimed at institutionalizing this practice so it's baked right into the planning process. If successful, it could have a profound impact on the digital video ad buying process.