Posts for 'Advertising'

Walmart has closed its $2.3 billion acquisition of VIZIO. As Colin and I discuss on this week’s podcast, there are many opportunities that the deal creates. We focus on a few, including Walmart extending WatchFree+, driving new CTV ad revenue and also broadening the availability of one-click buying and attribution.

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Disney’s fiscal Q4 results confirmed a broader industry trend that ad-supported subscribers are driving growth for streaming services. Disney’s CEO Bob Iger said 60% of new DTC subscribers are on the ad tier, with 37% and 30% of US and international subscribers, respectively, now on the ad tier.

Related, Netflix said earlier this week that 70 million monthly users are reached via its ad-supported plan, up from 22 million in January. It also said over 50% of new subscribers in countries where an ad tier is available sign up for it. Colin and I discuss the reasons viewers are choosing ad-supported plans.

Related, we also explore new Gracenote data showing the disproportionate amount of SVOD titles on Amazon Prime Video.

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Four topics for this week’s podcast:

First, Disney+ and Hulu are no longer available for sign up in Apple’s App Store. As we discuss, this feels like a move by Disney to preserve margins, though at the expense of some of its subscribers losing the advantages of unified billing and integrated search/discovery. It also means less competition for Amazon, which is already the dominant distributor of third-party streaming services.

Next, IAB Tech Lab this week announced an initiative to help standardize emerging CTV ad formats. We’re confident it will help more advertisers move spending into the channel.

Third, Fubo is boldly offering premium services on a standalone basis, not requiring a base subscription plan. Fubo aims to be a “super aggregator” and is breaking from pay-TV operators’ traditional approach of enabling access to premium services only for subscribers. It’s a sign of the times, with viewers requiring flexibility and it seems like a savvy play by Fubo to keep viewers engaged with its app.

Last, a variety of streaming services are partnering with grocery chains and delivery apps, which both of us think makes a lot of sense to reduce churn and cost per acquisition. We expect to see more partnerships going forward.

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Four topics for this week’s podcast:

Last week IAB released its new 2024 advertising outlook report based on a survey of media professionals. CTV advertising was at the top of expected gains, revised upward from a 14.5% lift vs. 2023 in IAB’s prior report to 18.4% now. It’s another positive sign for CTV ads and we discuss how big a role political ad spending is playing.

Next up, Comcast’s president shared insights about NBCU’s position in movies and PVOD which were relatively upbeat. While NBCU has had a strong year, as we review, movies still face stiff headwinds.

Third, Charter and AMC signed a new distribution deal that gives many Charter TV subscribers access to the ad-supported version of AMC+. While the deal averts a blackout like the one happening with DIRECTV and Disney currently, Colin and I question whether the deal is sufficiently forward-looking for AMC.

Finally, Colin explains the significance of Amazon introducing TVs that support the NextGen TV standard.

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Disney reported a $47 million operating profit in its direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment in its fiscal third quarter 2024. The profit comes one quarter earlier than Disney had forecast. The $47 million profit reverses a $517 million loss in the year ago quarter.

While the optics of the profit are indeed positive, in this week’s podcast Colin and I do a deep dive into the profit’s true quality and sustainability. Doing so reveals a fragile picture. First, there are issues about how much of Disney+’s recent subscriber gains are in fact due to the Charter deal, which by some accounts hasn’t been terribly successful in driving active subscribers. Meanwhile, Hulu’s been moving sideways for a while, and there’s no longer transparency about ESPN+’s subscriber count.

Another issue is Disney+’s falling average monthly revenue per paid subscriber which declined further in Q3. It’s noteworthy because Disney’s CFO ascribed it partially to Disney+’s lower-priced ad tier. Yet Hulu actually reported higher average monthly revenue per paid subscriber due to higher ad revenue. So there are some contradictory signals.

Meanwhile, Disney’s aggressive bundling, at deep discounts, may bode well as a longer-term churn-buster, but will almost certainly pressure near-term DTC profitability. Then there’s Disney+’s price increase, which will kick in soon, concurrent with a broad rollout on limiting password sharing. This double whammy is likely to lead to some subscriber losses.

From analyzing the the Q3 financial statement, it’s clear Disney+ and Hulu were still unprofitable in the quarter. It was actually ESPN+ that turned the DTC segment green. But as I detail, further analysis reveals an unusual jump in ESPN+’s quarterly profit level and profit margin vs. a year ago, suggesting Disney may have done a one-time reallocation of expenses from ESPN+ to ESPN that cannot be replicated in future quarters. Speaking of one-time events, Disney may still owe Comcast another $5 billion for the Hulu buyout (it’s not clear if that would hit the DTC line or another).

Finally, and at the risk of piling on, just over the horizon in fiscal ’25 loom big payments for Disney to the NBA for its new rights deal and an earnings drag as the new Venu Sports JV (potentially) ramps up. Note, an early Venu write-off is equally likely.

Add it all up and it’s clear to us that the quality and sustainability of Disney’s first quarterly DTC profit are quite fragile.

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Comcast reported Q2 ’24 results this week, including an update on Peacock, which cut its loss to $348 million in the quarter from $639 million a year ago. Peacock’s subscriber count increased from 24 million in Q2 ’23 to 33 million at the end of Q2 ’24, but that was actually down a million from the end of Q1 ’24. 

In this week’s podcast we discuss whether and when Peacock will turn the corner and become a scaled, profitable streaming service. Peacock is betting big on expensive sports to deliver, with the Olympics kicking off tonight, and a new multi-billion dollar NBA deal to be announced soon, validating our call for Peacock to "Go Big or Go Home" back in November, 2021.

Peacock was a very late entry to the streaming game, and according to MoffettNathanson, has lost at least $8 billion over the past 14 quarters. Colin and I explain why we aren’t convinced sports can carry the weight of Peacock’s turnaround, and agree that only time will tell. 

We then switch gears to discuss Netflix’s Q2 earnings and the company’s lagging ad-tier performance, which surprises both of us a bit. Veteran podcast listeners will recall that back in October, 2022 Colin and I expressed our optimism about the pending impact of paid sharing and the ad-tier. The former has been a monster success for Netflix, based at least partly on the expert execution of its rollout. The ad tier remains a work in progress but we remain confident Netflix will figure it out. 

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Antenna’s research has become a go-to source for streaming industry executives trying to understand the fast-evolving landscape. In this exclusive interview, Antenna’s Co-Founder and CEO Jonathan Carson discusses details behind the firm’s recently-released “State of the Subscriptions” report. Jonathan is an ad industry veteran with particular expertise in research and monetization, as well as a longtime friend.

Three weeks ago Colin and I did a podcast on the publicly available report, and Antenna itself did a short webinar about it two weeks ago. But this interview explores data that hasn’t been publicly released, so listeners gain access to brand new insights and data that Antenna hasn’t previously shared.

The interview provides a fascinating window into four drivers in streaming today: the shift to adoption of ad-supported SVOD tiers, the role of bundling, the anemic penetration of annual SVOD subscriptions and consumers’ acceptance to date of SVOD price increases. We finish up with Jonathan sharing his views of the industry going forward.

The interview with Jonathan is a must-listen for all industry participants. Together with our interview with leading Wall Street analyst Michael Nathanson two weeks ago, they are a blockbuster doubleheader of insights, helping all of us truly understand what’s happening in the streaming industry today.

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We’re excited to have top Wall Street media analyst Michael Nathanson join us this week. Michael and his partner Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson are the “one-two punch” of the TV, streaming and broadband industries. Their analyses and insights are widely considered best in class. Michael is an old friend, and we’re so pleased to have him join us in this exclusive, must-listen interview.

Among the many topics we cover: the recent decline in CTV CPMs due to Amazon’s market entry and why the new inventory will be digested, the competitive dynamics in the broader CTV/AVOD market, YouTube’s massive scale and Michael’s prediction that YouTube TV will be the pay-TV market leader in two years with 10 million subscribers, FAST’s potential, legacy media’s abysmal $30B cumulative loss on DTC services in the past 5 years, why streaming’s future will be driven by advertising and why the “unit value” of advertising is poised to soar due to AI and finally, the biggest potential surprise in the next year.

Anyone who wants to understand what’s really happening in the TV/streaming industries will find this exclusive interview invaluable.

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Antenna has released its new “State of Subscriptions” report, which is full of data and insights addressing some of the most pressing topics in the streaming industry.

On this week’s podcast, we dig into some of the report’s key takeaways about how annual subscriptions aren’t gaining much traction with viewers, why streaming bundles are already succeeding, the surprising degree to which subscribers are accepting price increases, the ascendancy of ad-supported tiers and more.

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This week we interview Roku’s Head of Ad Marketing Jordan Rost and MAGNA’s EVP, Intelligence Solutions Kara Manatt, about their companies’ new research - "From Power On to Power Off" - about viewers’ content discovery journeys and the role of CTV Home Screen advertising. A key takeaway of the research is that almost half (44%) of streaming sessions begin with the viewer browsing, rather than knowing what they want to watch.

That opens up a huge content discovery opportunity on the home page, which dovetails with advertisers (especially streaming services) desire to gain awareness and action. We discuss this dynamic and other findings from the research about viewers’ mindsets and receptivity to ads along with how home page ads are already being executed.

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New research from Inscape analyzing the viewing behavior of 23 million opted-in VIZIO smart TV owners reveals streaming’s ascendance. In Q1 ’24, fully 58% of these viewers only streamed content, up 3 percentage points since Q4 ’23. 38% watched both streaming and pay-TV (cable, satellite and OTA), and just 3% only watched pay-TV. The streaming-only group has increased from 45% in Q4 ’21. We discuss these and other key findings.

Then we turn our attention to Max’s immediate rate increase, announced this week. Of note, only the two ad-free tiers are getting $1 per month increases, while the “Max With Ads” tier will remain $10 per month. As we discuss, this is the latest evidence of how traditionally ad-free streaming services (e.g. Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video) are incenting subscribers to take ad-supported plans - and why CTV advertising is poised to become more valuable than ever.

Last up we review new research from the American Customer Satisfaction Index showing record-high satisfaction levels for streaming services. Neither of us are surprised, given the strength of streaming’s value proposition. This year Amazon Prime Video topped the satisfaction list, but all streamers perfumed well and were tightly clustered.

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Memorial Day weekend was a disaster for Hollywood, with approximately $128 million in box office, down 36% from 2023’s total, and the worst in decades. There are some specific reasons, such as the steep underperformance of “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga.” But as we discuss, any poor box office performance these days must always be viewed in the context of streaming’s myriad choices for viewers. Compounding matters for the box office are streaming’s inexpensive new bundles; on last week’s podcast we noted that Xfinity subscribers in particular can now access 6 top streaming services for just $30 per month.  

Next we return to bundling topic, in light of new research from Antenna showing subscriber loyalty to top streaming services. No surprise, Netflix has the highest loyalty, which in turn begs the question: how does Netflix benefit from participating in discounted bundles? We offer our thoughts.

Also on our radar this week is FreeWheel’s latest research from its Viewer Experience Lab, focusing on factors that diminish the viewer’s ad-supported experience. The testing found that viewers were most bothered by slow or buffering ads (78%), ads that unnaturally interrupt the programming (71%) and “we’ll be right back” slates (33%). The research is important because as CTV advertising becomes an ever more critical revenue stream, delivering top-notch ad experiences will be essential for optimizing monetization.

Last up, we review new research from Horowitz Research which found that of sports viewers, 58% of 18-34 year-olds and 57% of 35-49 year-olds say they’re likely or very likely to subscribe to the new Venu Sports streaming service for $35-$40 per month. While the research validates basic interest in Venu, it still feels early to accurately estimate true demand for Venu. A big looming question for Venu’s value proposition is whether TNT is able to renew its NBA package.

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[UPDATED]

Netflix revealed at its Upfront this week that it now has 40 million monthly active users on its lower-priced ad-supported tier. It’s not clear how monthly active users and subscribers relate to each other. But I think it’s probably fair to assume that closer to around 10% of Netflix’s 270 million global subscribers are now ad-tier subscribers (Colin and I will clarify this further on next week's podcast). Not too shabby since the ad tier only officially launched in November, 2022. No surprise, Netflix is also creating its own ad-tech stack with partners.

In addition Hub Research released survey data showing that 15% of respondents cited Netflix as the brand that would most likely make them sign up for a bundle (Amazon followed with 12%, followed by AT&T with 10%).

As Colin and I discuss, all of this nicely positions Netflix to play a lead role in the “streaming bundles” age that has already begun (note that Comcast announced a Netflix-Peacock-Apple TV+ bundle this week, pricing TBD). And with the Netflix app ubiquitously available, it could be a key “on ramp” to targeted streaming bundles, based on viewers’ demonstrated interests. Given Netflix’s newfound scale in CTV ads, a bundling play could also find Netflix with a lead role in selling/managing ads across bundled services.

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This week’s NewFronts highlighted three key and interlocking themes: TV OEMs’ emphasis on FASTs, AI’s role in driving video ads’ value, and CTV evolving to full funnel. We discuss each of these and how specific NewFront presentations addressed these points.

All of these feed a broader belief I’ve had for while: the value of a CTV ad - as measured by the financial return derived from gaining a unit of the viewer’s time - is only going to increase in the years ahead. Ads will continue to be more targeted and personalized, and also drive KPIs across the full funnel as viewers’ opportunities to engage soar.

Separate from video ads, I share highlights from IAB’s three-part session on Monday afternoon called “Spotlight On: News” which focused on the value of news media for brands and society. Huge credit to IAB for convening numerous C-level news executives to discuss the important role of trusted news in democracy and why it is good business for advertisers to be involved.

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This week we’re delighted to interview Wurl’s CEO Ron Gutman who discusses the company’s new AI-powered BrandDiscovery product that allows ads to be aligned with content in real time.

Ron explains the eight key emotional reactions to specific scenes in entertainment programming, and how ads that are consistent with these emotions deliver far higher conversion. He also details the critical role AI plays in enabling improved personalization and targeting. The discussion further demonstrates how units of advertising are going to become ever more valuable as technology enriches them.

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On the podcast this week Colin and I dig into Tivo’s Q4 2023 Video Trends Report, released earlier this week and available here. Among other things, TiVo’s research found that in the past 2 years the number of paid video services used per respondent has leveled off while non-paid services has increased, indicating higher levels of ad tolerance.

Meanwhile, TiVo found that the gap between people signing up for a new streaming service and dropping one is at an all-time low, highlighting how churn remains an issue.

In addition, nearly half of respondents typically go to 2 or 3 streaming apps before deciding on something to watch. Just 19% of respondents said they know what they want to watch, once again revealing how important discovery remains.

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Last Wednesday was VideoNuze’s Connected TV Advertising PREVIEW: 2024 virtual which featured 19 senior executives on 5 sessions in 1 high-impact afternoon.



Below are links to each of the session recordings along with descriptions of each session and its speakers.



Many thanks to our 3 generous partners PadSquad, Roku and Wurl!

Colin and I distilled some of our key takeaways on last Friday's Inside the Stream podcast.

Enjoy!

[VIDEO] CTV Advertising in 2024: $30 Billion and Robust Growth Ahead

[VIDEO] Exploring CTV's Key Trends and Opportunities in 2024

[VIDEO] How to Make CTV Ads More Engaging

[VIDEO] Why Premium Streaming Video is Increasingly Ad-Supported

[VIDEO] Achieving Viewership At Scale: Netflix’s Focus on the Mid-Tail