Posts for 'Clearwire'

Importantly, the YTL deal also provides a possible glimpse of Sezmi's value as a partner to domestic U.S. carriers rolling out 4G service who might seek to offer a competitive over the top TV service. 4G is gaining momentum in the U.S. Just last week Verizon announced that it would introduce its 4G "LTE" service in 38 markets around the U.S. by the end of the year, with data speeds of 5-12 megabits per second. Both Clearwire and Sprint have already rolled out 4G services to over 50 market each and T-Mobile is in over 60 (albeit none of these always have 100% market coverage just yet). AT&T is planning to launch an extensive 4G network by mid-2011.

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The promise of high-quality video delivery to mobile devices continues to crystallize as Clearwire is officially launching its 4G service with Motorola in the Atlanta metro area today. It's the third official market launch (after Baltimore and Portland, OR), though Las Vegas was quietly kicked off a couple weeks ago. The company is calling Atlanta, with almost 3 million people spread over 1,200 square miles, "the largest Internet hot spot in the U.S." Clearwire still plans to roll out 80 U.S. markets reaching 120 million people by end of 2010.

The company's CLEAR WiMax service aims to deliver download speeds in the 4-6 Mbps range, bursting up to 15 Mbps. That range would put CLEAR on a par with broadband speeds most Americans receive now from their cable companies. Recall that Clearwire, started by the wireless entrepreneur Craig McCaw, is now backed by 3 of the largest cable operators, Comcast, Time Warner Cable and Bright House Networks, along with other investors Intel, Google and Sprint.

Of course there are lots of applications that benefit from high-speed mobile delivery, but video is right at the top of the list. This was the context for last month's alliance announcement between Cisco and Clearwire, whereby Cisco would become the primary IP network infrastructure provider and also build 4G devices. Cisco has made no secret of the fact that IP-delivered video is the key growth driver for the company in the coming years. Its recent research projects that almost 64% of the world's mobile data traffic will be video by 2013, based on an annual growth rate of 150% for the next 5 years.

The proliferation of inexpensive smartphones, led by the iPhone, is creating a massive need for robust mobile broadband infrastructure that Clearwire and others are rushing to provide. Mobile video consumption will lag fixed broadband usage for some time to come, but all the elements are falling into place for it to grow rapidly.

What do you think? Post a comment now.

As promised, each day this week I'm sharing one prediction for 2009, with each one getting progressively bolder as the week progresses (and yes, I'll concede - as a number of you privately pointed out to me - yesterday's forecast that the Syndicated Video Economy would grow in '09 was a pretty wimpy start). So moving out a little further on the limb, today's prediction #2 is that video delivered directly to mobile/wireless devices will take off in '09, finally.

For those of you who have been following mobile/wireless video delivery, this has been a market that's perpetually been "just around the corner." In fact, a little over a year ago when I was planning VideoNuze, several people suggested that I shouldn't just focus on broadband delivery (as I define it to mean high-speed wired delivery of video to a home or business), but also mobile/wireless video. But after doing some due diligence I concluded that the market wasn't there yet, and that the vast majority of new video activity would be focused on wired broadband. Indeed, I think that's how '07 and much of '08 have shaped up.

However, having tracked recent activity in the mobile video space, I think '09 is going to be a big year of growth and recognition for this new medium (in fact, an old friend gently chastised me over lunch last week for even drawing a distinction between wired and wireless delivery, saying, "come on, it's ALL broadband!" I think he makes a very fair point.)

What has traditionally held back mobile delivery are a lack of video-capable devices, voice and text-focused wireless networks and a closed "on-deck" paradigm, which is the wireless carrier's version of the cable and satellite industry's proverbial walled-garden.

These limitations have now been mostly addressed, or are in the process of being addressed. On the device side, the most notable video-capable device is of course the iPhone, which by my calculations has already sold over 13 million units and is on its way to almost 20 million by the end of the year. Everyone I know who has an iPhone - especially kids - are infatuated with the video feature (if you've never seen it, especially now using AT&T's 3G network, get thee to an Apple store immediately!). In '09, the iPhone is poised for even greater popularity as Wal-Mart begins stocking it, possibly for just $99. Recession or not, the iPhone is going to remain white hot.

Of course, all the cool devices in the world don't matter unless you have a robust underlying network and the freedom to view what you want. On this front, the wireless carriers' push to build out their next generation 3G networks finally allows sufficient bandwidth to view high-quality video (though not HD yet). Next up is 4G, first from Clearwire, the SprintNextel-Intel-Google-cable industry consortium that's deploying its WiMax network with speeds of up to 6 Mbps downstream being promised. There's also MediaFLO, Qualcomm's mobile broadcasting platform that has steadily built out an ecosystem of technology, carrier and content partners.

Last but not least are the consumer-focused services and applications. Until recently, this market has mainly consisted of packaged subscription services like Verizon's VCast and MobiTV, which itself recently announced more than 5 million subscribers. The combination of new devices and networks promises to bring an increase in on-demand, web-based, ad-supported video consumption (plus paid downloads to be sure, courtesy of the iPhone mainly). Another interesting twist is the advent of live broadcasting from mobile devices, powered by providers like Qik, Kyte and Mogulus. These all supercharge the Twitter micro-blogging phenomenon.

All of this underscores why the distinction between wired and wireless broadband really becomes meaningless over time. The mobile experience is going to seem more and more like the one you have sitting at your computer, with the added benefit of portability. To throw a blue-sky variable into the mix, one wonders if at some point you'll simply plug your phone into your TV and watch streamed or downloaded video that way, rather than through a set-top box or a wired broadband connection. There's a convergence concept for you!

What do you think? Post a comment now.

Previous, Prediction #1: Syndicated Video Economy Grows

Tomorrow, 2009 Prediction #3