Podcasts

I’m pleased to present the 424th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

At this past Tuesday’s VideoNuze Online Video Advertising Summit, Colin moderated a session, “Connected TVs’ Ad-Supported Future,” with Rich Calacci (Pluto TV), Jim Keller (Hulu), Frank Sinton (Beachfront Media) and Seth Walters (Roku) participating. In the first segment of this week’s podcast, we discuss the reasons panelists cited for why ads on connected TVs are so appealing to advertisers, among other topics.

We then transition to some of the highlights of the keynote interview with David Lawenda (EVP, Digital Sales and Strategy, CBS), with particular focus on his comments about advertisers’ reluctance to pay more just because ad loads are lighter. A range of TV networks are lightening their ad loads to provide a better experience compared to ad-free SVOD, but the benefits are uncertain according to David.

Finally, we touch on interesting data that Group Nine Media’s SVP of Ad Solutions and Innovation Hayden Lynch made in my interview with him around the difficulties of monetizing video distributed on platforms. Group Nine’s properties generate around 6 billion views/month, but only 10-20% of them are being monetized, which is pretty eye-opening.

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I’m pleased to present the 423rd edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Apple and Amazon aren’t two companies that come to mind for helping traditional pay-TV operators, but this week brought news of both doing exactly that. Apple announced at its WWDC the integration of Charter’s Spectrum app in Apple TV that will allow users to gain “zero sign-on” access to the app’s content. Other operators have made their apps available on connected TV devices, but this was a first for Apple TV.

Then Amazon announced its Fire TV Cube, a mashup of Echo and Fire TV that also aspires to control your entertainment center. The device includes IR blasters to provide limited control over existing set-top boxes, a rare instance where Amazon is looking to help a prior technology rather than disrupt it.

Colin and I discuss both moves, as well as the broader context that we see for the “appification of TV.” This is already happening with vMVPDs and we expect over the next couple years all major pay-TV operators will have apps for their services available on all major CTVs. For consumers this will be a huge win as they can avoid renting often outdated and expensive set-tops.

(Note, Colin will be moderating the “Connected TV’s Ad-Supported Future” panel at the VideoNuze Online Video Ad Summit on Tuesday. Register now!)

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I’m pleased to present the 422nd edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

This week Hulu’s CEO Randy Freer said in a CNBC interview that the company had “surpassed 800,000 subscribers” for its Hulu with Live TV service. It was the first time Hulu has revealed subscribers for its skinny bundle service which was launched just over a year ago.

Colin and I are both impressed with the number, which represents 4% of its overall 20 million subscribers and probably puts it in fourth place in the category behind YouTube TV, Sling TV and DirecTV Now. Based on rough calculations, the Live TV service is likely generating almost $300 million in run-rate revenue now (whether its profitable is another question). That’s a strong start and more evidence Hulu has found a winning formula.

Back on the SVOD service, we also discuss James Murdoch’s comment that about half of Hulu’s subscribers are taking the ad-supported option, (which Hulu said is actually more than 60%), but that would still be down from “the vast majority” which Hulu has consistently said in the past. Finally, we discuss the pros and cons of either Comcast or Disney taking control of Hulu due to the battle over 21st Century Fox assets. I wrote last week Comcast would benefit more.

(Note, Hulu’s VP of Ad Sales Jim Keller will be on Colin’s panel “Connected TVs' Ad-Supported Future” at the VideoNuze Online Video Ad Summit on June 12th)

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I’m pleased to present the 421st edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

On this week’s podcast we cover 3 different topics. First up is Comcast’s announcement this week this it plans an all-cash offer for the Fox assets Disney has agreed to buy. We don’t have time to fully analyze the move, but both of us see it as a bold doubling-down by Comcast on the traditional multichannel TV model. We speculate about whether Comcast should diversify with a skinny bundle offering, as I described yesterday in taking control of Hulu.

Next up we discuss new research from ACSI focused on the lagging role of movies in SVOD and Netflix specifically (which is being addressed with 86 releases in 2018). Lastly, we turn to data from Advertiser Perceptions showing ad buyers are only willing to pay a small premium to be in lighter ad load environments. I’ve previously speculated about whether the math would work for TV networks by reducing their ad loads.

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I’m pleased to present the 420th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

AT&T is planning to deliver its DirecTV satellite services over broadband at a reduced cost, further demonstrating the company’s commitment to OTT video delivery. With the DirecTV broadband service and its upcoming skinnier bundle “AT&T Watch” for $15/mo, AT&T is pursuing every price point for its different video services. Colin and I discuss why all this helps AT&T with its wireless bundling strategy.

We then transition to new TDG research showing Amazon Channels is driving 55% of all direct-to-consumer streaming subscriptions including 70% and 72% for Starz and Showtime respectively. We’ve both been big fans of Channels since it launched as the Streaming Partners Program in late 2015, and it appears to be paying off really well.

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I’m pleased to present the 419th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia. We’re grateful to this week’s podcast sponsor, Ad-ID, which is the standard for identifying advertising assets. This week, Ad-ID, Extreme Reach, Adstream, and the IAB Tech Lab, released a paper about ad clouds and a universal asset identifier.

(Apologies that our audio quality is a little choppy this week)

First up, Colin discusses highlights from his new report, The Secret Life of Streamers, Part II, which details the rise of connected TV usage, especially in primetime. Colin shares some of the key data points, including how PC viewing has been eclipsed in the past year and how viewership patterns vary by country.

Speaking of CTV usage, Roku reported a very strong Q1 ’18 earlier this week, with Platform revenues (which includes advertising and licensing), edging ahead of device sales for the first time. With Platform’s higher margins, Roku’s overall financial performance improved as well. We dig into the details.

Finally, we touch on this week’s Bloomberg report that Apple may enable video subscriptions in its TV app. It seems like a smart move to both of us, though very late, given Amazon has been in market with its Channels program since 2015.

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I’m pleased to present the 418th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Earlier this week, I wrote how I’ve been rethinking the opportunity for skinny bundles. I’ve been skeptical, but I’m becoming more optimistic because of expanded local broadcast TV carriage (YouTube TV in particular has invested very heavily), parent companies’ larger strategic priorities that are motivating them to subsidize skinny bundles’ lack of profitability and the ongoing value of linear TV if priced appropriately.

On this week’s podcast, Colin and I explore all of these reasons in further depth. Skinny bundles are also benefiting from the quality of SVOD’s programming, which makes second-tier cable networks not included in skinny bundles less missed - a dynamic that could have broad consequences for pay-TV in general. We also discuss how Hulu with Live TV could be one to watch among skinny bundles as it benefits from the 20 million plus SVOD subscriber base.

It’s still extremely early days for skinny bundles but the likelihood of their success is definitely improving.

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I’m pleased to present the 417th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia. We’re grateful to this week’s podcast sponsor, Ad-ID, which is the standard for identifying advertising assets. Ad-ID has recently released a new paper with examples of the value and importance of using a standard identifier. Learn more here.

On this week’s podcast, Colin and I analyze AT&T’s and Comcast’s video subscriber results for Q1 ’18, which were announced this week. AT&T has aggressively promoted its skinny bundle DirecTV Now, which gained 312K subscribers in Q1, more than offsetting the 188K loss for traditional DirecTV.

By contrast, because Comcast doesn’t have a meaningful skinny bundle (Xfinity Instant TV is mainly a broadcast TV package that also hasn’t been heavily promoted), it felt the full impact of losing 93K residential video subscribers.

While the underlying economics of skinny bundles remain questionable, AT&T has settled on a strategy of using their low-cost package to support their core wireless business. Multichannel pay-TV is a business that has contracting margins and accelerating subscriber defections. Colin and I speculate on whether Comcast should similarly embrace skinny bundles to support their core broadband business and have a meaningful alternative to provide to prospective cord-cutters.

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I’m pleased to present the 416th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Netflix reported its Q1 ’18 results earlier this week and once again the performance was very strong, with revenue up 43% and average paid streaming subscribers up 25% to 125 million globally. Colin and I discuss what’s driving the company. With 55.1 million paid U.S. subscribers at the end of Q1, it’s possible that Netflix will hit 60 million by the end of 2018, which is the low end of the range of 60-90 million the company has long said it believed it could achieve.

We then turn to discussing Amazon’s new deal with Best Buy for its “Fire TV Edition” smart TVs, which were announced earlier this week. We agree that the move is yet another aggressive step in Amazon’s goal to dominate both the living room and whole home. Amazon’s CEO Jeff Bezos also announced this week that Prime has hit 100 million subscribers with video continuing to drive acquisition and retention. Colin and I both see Amazon expanding further by launching a skinny bundle pay-TV service sometime in 2018.

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I’m pleased to present the 415th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Colin and I were both at the NABShow in Las Vegas this week. I was producing the Online Video Program once again, which featured 30+ speakers on 8 different sessions. On today’s podcast, I share some of the highlights of the keynote session with Christy Tanner, EVP/GM of CBS News Digital, who oversees CBSN, the 24x7 OTT news service. CBSN has an average viewer age of 38, which is 20 years younger than the average CBS News viewer.

Christy explained how the CBSN team collaborates internally with its focus on news/facts vs. punditry. She also noted that 50% of consumption is on connected TVs, with 30% on desktop and 20% on mobile. CBSN is an example of how OTT is giving traditional media a whole new way to connect with viewers.

We then turn our attention to some of Colin’s takeaways from the show, including Android TV deployments and the value of open platforms, how operators are broadening their focus to broadband/OTT as viewers are increasingly assembling their own preferred services and the growth of live-streaming.

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I’m pleased to present the 414th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

DVDs have been fading for years now, as viewers shift to streaming alternatives. This week marked another milestone in that evolution as Oppo, which made high-end DVD players, announced it was shutting down its manufacturing. Colin shares the statistics on DVDs’ decline and how inexpensive smart TVs and connected TV devices that support both UHD/4K and HDR have gained share.

However, the downside of streaming UHD/4K content is that it uses up a ton of bandwidth. Colin shares his personal story of almost exceeding his 1 TB/month data cap and the math behind how easy it is to do that when consuming UHD/4K content. He also explains the challenge of controlling the quality of what stream is delivered and how to overcome it.

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I’m pleased to present the 413th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

This week Colin and I wade into the debate over Netflix’s films being banned from consideration at the Cannes Film Festival. We were both struck by Steven Spielberg’s support of the ban, as it seems to us backward-looking and dependent on an outdated definition of what constitutes a “film.” That said, we both understand the deep cultural and economic motivations behind banning Netflix. This week’s BBC report that younger viewers are now consuming more Netflix than BBC content reinforces the global vs. local battle that’s unfolding.

We contrast to this backward-looking approach, by highlighting how Hulu has embraced a viewer-first model, which appears to really be paying off for the service. There are lessons local broadcasters around the world could gain from observing Hulu’s model, starting with giving viewers as much choice as possible.

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I’m pleased to present the 412th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

New data from Deloitte shows a convergence of streaming video behaviors among 3 age groups, Gen Z (14-20 year-olds), millennials (21-34 year-olds) and Gen X (35-51 year-olds) in terms of viewing frequency, subscription levels and binge-watching. Colin and I discuss the data and what’s  likely driving the convergence.

We then dig into the math behind Amazon’s originals and how they contribute to Prime memberships and the company’s profitability. Jeff Bezos has spoken publicly about how video drives commerce. My analysis of Amazon’s “The Man in the High Castle” supports this, proving that Amazon is a totally new breed of competitor in the video and TV industries.

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I’m pleased to present the 411th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

This week Colin and I share details from TiVo’s new Q4 ’17 Online Video & Pay-TV Trends report (download here), which shows how the high cost of multichannel TV subscriptions is leading to a record level of cord-cutting. The TiVo report also shows how SVOD has gained loyalty and that broadcast TV remains critical for many viewers.

All of this adds up to a dynamic which Colin and I only see firming up further: consumers becoming more proactive through more cord-cutting and cobbling together SVOD subscriptions with low cost, “good enough” skinny bundles and/or antennas. Skinny bundles like YouTube TV, which includes broadcast will become market leaders, while those that don’t (or don’t offer a solution like Sling TV does) will be challenged. Absent a new catalyst, we see this as the state of play in the TV industry for the foreseeable future.

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I’m pleased to present the 410th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Our first topic this week is data from a new Vimeo report showing that 60% of people who sign up for a free trial with an OTT service convert to become a paying subscriber (with an app, the rate jumps to 72%). As Colin and I discuss, these rates seem incredibly high, especially in the context of “freemium” service conversion rates which are often less than 10%. Granted, it’s not a pure apples-to-apples comparison, but still, the Vimeo data makes a compelling case for OTT services to offer free trials.

We then switch gears to discuss the Oscars which notched its lowest-ever broadcast audience this past Sunday night, with 26.5 million viewers. We explore the range of issues affecting the Oscars, some of which relate to the divergence between box office hits and award winners while some are more about changing viewers’ behaviors and fragmentation. The Oscars ratings reflect an industry in the midst of a huge change.

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I’m pleased to present the 409th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

On this week’s podcast we dig into NBCUniversal’s decision to reduce the number of ads in commercial pods by 20% and ad time by 10% across all its networks in prime time. Colin and I agree that it’s a clear recognition that the traditional TV ad experience isn’t sustainable for viewers or advertisers.

But how the move will ultimately work out for NBCUniversal isn’t clear. Colin is skeptical that the math is going to add up, citing larger industry headwinds, such as Netflix’s massive content investments, that will keep depleting TV audiences. While the challenges are steep, TV does have certain inherent advantages and the move is a start in the right direction. It will be fascinating to see how things unfold.

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I’m pleased to present the 408th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Roku reported a strong Q4 ’17 holiday quarter this week as it continues to transition to an ad-based business model driven off its 19 million+ active users. Roku is in the middle of all of the industry key trends and Colin and I discuss the company’s results and how we see the business going forward.

We then turn to how HBO and Showtime have been revitalized by OTT delivery. 2017 results show how both traditional networks are using direct-to-consumer and new online distribution models to make their programming more easily accessible to viewers and achieve record subscribership. Their success is a textbook example of how OTT is shaking up longstanding industry norms.

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I’m pleased to present the 407th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

First up this week, Colin explains a very interesting analysis he has done indicating that Netflix viewership may be erasing up to $6 billion in TV ad inventory annually, which could be up to 8% of the market. Colin explains how all the binge-viewing that’s going on is taking time away from ad-supported TV, a trend that is only accelerating.

Part of the TV industry’s solution to this problem is to make ad-supported TV available more inexpensively through so-called “skinny bundles” or “vMVPDs.” One of these, YouTube TV, this week announced it added the Turner networks and plans to raise its rate by $5 per month. We discuss how YouTube TV appears to be gaining momentum and what Google’s long game likely is.

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I’m pleased to present the 406th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

First up this week, Colin and I share our experiences live-streaming the Super Bowl. Both of us were on the road and were extremely impressed.  Except for latency of up to a minute or so, neither of us experienced any buffering or pixelation. In short, it was nearly a TV-like experience and really demonstrates how far live-streaming at scale has come.

We then shift gears to discuss strong growth at HBO Now, which just reported hitting the 5 million subscriber mark at end of 2017. HBO Now is benefiting from not being a “buy-through” on top of expensive pay-TV services. By going direct-to-subscriber, HBO Now has made its product much more accessible. We suspect that Amazon Channels and AT&T (which strongly promoted HBO Now in 2017), were pivotal to growth.

(Apologies, our audio quality isn’t that good this week).

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I’m pleased to present the 405th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

This week we dig into Fox’s newly announced deal to broadcast NFL Thursday Night Football games for the next 5 years. The price was reportedly $3 billion, which translates to an average of $60 million per game, a 30% increase vs. what CBS and NBC paid last season.

Sports have long been thought of as TV’s firewall, but given the NFL’s own ratings declines, combined with accelerating changes in viewers’ behaviors, cord-cutting and adoption of ad-free SVOD, this deal carries risks for Fox. Can Fox turn a profit on the games as pay-TV operators push back on rate increases and advertisers balk at smaller audiences? Will we see a direct-to-consumer streaming service emerge? Time will tell.

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Also note, Colin has a new white paper out on content portability in the EU. Download it here.