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Inside the Stream: Disney’s DIRECTV Dispute Highlights Its Reduced Customer Focus
Last weekend Disney blacked out all of its networks on DIRECTV as the carriage agreement between the two companies expired without a new one being reached. These types of disputes are common in the pay-TV industry, and there’s always a lot of jawboning and finger-pointing, making it difficult to understand the exact proposals and counter-proposals.
What seems indisputable is that Disney is pushing for a continuation of its longstanding approach to bundling all of its networks together, perhaps with some additional flexibility for DIRECTV. With ESPN’s high cost, that means the bundle price to DIRECTV is elevated, even as cord-cutting accelerates. It also means DIRECTV would keep paying for a bunch of smaller channels most of its subscribers don’t watch. None of this is especially friendly to viewers.
The irony of course is that even as Disney is pushing for bundling with traditional distributors like DIRECTV, Disney is separately part of the Venu Sports JV which unbundles its (and Fox’s and Warner Bros. Discovery’s) sports networks and packages them into a new streaming offering. Venu’s launch is now up in the air due to Fubo TV winning a preliminary injunction against it.
Stepping back, as we observe, Disney is also pursuing a variety of other moves that also suggest reduced customer focus. The primary example of this is the latest round of Disney+ price increases that this time are coupled with a crackdown on password sharing - an approach completely counter to how Netflix wisely executed its password limit. Even though Disney eked out a profit in its DTC segment in the latest quarter, Colin and I believe these moves will put a lot of pressure on Disney+ subscriber numbers in the coming quarters.
(Outside of the streaming space, Disney also recently and embarrassingly insisted, and then reversed, its position in the case of a woman who died from an allergic reaction to food at Disney World, with Disney initially insisting her husband lost his rights to sue the company because he signed up for Disney+.)
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Topics: DirecTV, Disney, Disney+, Podcast, Venu Sports
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Disney and Google Gain Importance in Pay-TV
The U.S. pay-TV business performed better than expected in Q3 ’20, with top providers “only” losing around 120K subscribers, according to data compiled by Leichtman Research Group. The results would have been even stronger if a portion of YouTube TV’s one million subscriber additions in 2020 are attributed to Q3 specifically.
Google didn’t break out how many of YouTube TV’s additions came in Q3, but given the return of major sports during the quarter, it’s probably fair to assume at least 500K-600K. Add those to Hulu + Live TV’s 700K additions in Q3 and just these two virtual pay-TV providers may have accounted for 1.2 to 1.3 million additions. That would be enough to more than offset the approximately 1.15 million subscriber losses that the largest cable, satellite and telco pay-TV providers incurred.Categories: Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Skinny Bundles, Telcos
Topics: Disney+, Google, YouTube TV
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VideoNuze Podcast #539: Strong Third Quarter for Pay-TV
I’m pleased to present the 539th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
Despite gloomy predictions, the pay-TV industry in the U.S. turned in a relatively healthy third quarter in 2020, likely gaining subscribers. This was due to robust additions by virtual pay-TV providers (led by Hulu + Live TV and YouTube TV) and moderating losses by traditional providers (especially AT&T which had a huge loss in Q3 ’19).
Colin and I discuss how a big reason for Q3’s gains was the return of all major sports. Except for the NFL, major sports aren’t available in Q4. That means churn is likely to be up in Q4, though it could be offset by the pandemic keeping people indoors more.
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Topics: Podcast
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Pay-TV Loses Over 2 Million Video Subscribers in Q1 As Negative Forces Accelerate
Large pay-TV providers lost a total of nearly 2.1 million video subscribers in Q1, according to data compiled by Leichtman Research Group. The 2.1 million is more than double the approximately 1 million video subscriber loss sustained in Q1 ’19 and a record for the industry.
No doubt Q1 reflected ongoing challenges the industry has faced for years: high pricing relative to SVOD services, subpar linear viewing experiences interrupted by too many ads, a proliferation of connected TV devices enabling myriad competitive OTT services to be viewed on the big screen, etc. But the tail end of Q1 also saw the first impacts of Covid-19: the loss of live sports which has been a pay-TV’s firewall for years and the economic crisis that’s leading to consumer belt-tightening.Categories: Cable TV Operators, Cord-Cutting, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: Leichtman Research Group
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Pay-TV Providers Lost Approximately 5 Million Subscribers in 2019
It’s too soon to know whether 2019 will be remembered as the turning point year for the pay-TV industry - when all of the negative trends coalesced into a perfect storm that permanently diminished the industry’s place in American homes. But I’d say the odds are likely that 10-20 years from now, 2019 will likely be the top candidate for “turning point year.”
For evidence, consider new data from Leichtman Research Group, finding that major pay-TV providers which account for 95% of the market, lost 4.9 million subscribers in 2019. If 100% of providers had been counted, the losses would have been 5 million or more.Categories: Cable TV Operators, Cord-Cutting, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: AT&T, Leichtman Research Group
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Cord-Cutting Tops 1.5 Million in Q2 ’19
Cord-cutting surged to a record in Q2 ’19, with pay-TV providers that account for 93% of the industry losing just over 1.5 million subscribers, according to Leichtman Research Group. The loss is up from 420K in Q2 ’18. As usual, satellite providers were responsible for the majority of the losses, with DirecTV losing 778K subscribers in the quarter and Dish losing 79K. The combined drop was nearly double the 480K lost in Q2 ’18.
The biggest seven cable TV operators lost a combined 455K subscribers in Q2 ’19 compared to a loss of 275K a year ago.Categories: Cable TV Operators, Cord-Cutting, Satellite
Topics: Leichtman Research Group
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VideoNuze Podcast #445: Exploring Pay-TV’s Record High Subscriber Losses
I’m pleased to present the 445th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
On this week’s podcast Colin and I explore the pay-TV industry’s record high video subscriber losses sustained in Q3 ’18 (more here and here). The two big satellite services, DirecTV and Dish Network were major contributors. But perhaps more important was a dramatic slowdown in subscriber additions for the two biggest virtual pay-TV operators, Sling TV and DirecTV Now.
As we discuss, with these virtual services in flux and not stanching the bleeding of traditional multichannel TV, the critical underlying trends of cord-cutting and cord-nevering burst onto full display in Q3. Meanwhile, the strategies and success of virtual services like YouTube TV, Hulu Live and others is murky at best. All of this shows how unstable the pay-TV industry as a whole currently is.
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Topics: DirecTV Now, Dish Network, Podcast, Sling TV
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Why Google, AT&T and Disney Are Now the Most Important Players in Pay-TV
For all the talk about cord-cutting over the years, the most important trend in pay-TV these days isn’t consumers dropping out entirely, but rather shifting from traditional multichannel services to lower-priced virtual MVPDs or “skinny bundles.”
The trend of skinny bundle gains offsetting multichannel losses continued again in Q2 ’18 where, according to Leichtman Research Group, the top traditional services lost approximately 800K subscribers. But just the 2 publicly-reporting skinny bundles, Sling TV and DirecTV Now, gained 383K (with the latter accounting for 342K).Categories: Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Skinny Bundles, Telcos
Topics: AT&T, DirecTV Now, Disney, Google, Hulu, Sling TV, YouTube TV
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VideoNuze Podcast #423: Apple and Amazon Help Pay-TV Operators. Wait, What?
I’m pleased to present the 423rd edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
Apple and Amazon aren’t two companies that come to mind for helping traditional pay-TV operators, but this week brought news of both doing exactly that. Apple announced at its WWDC the integration of Charter’s Spectrum app in Apple TV that will allow users to gain “zero sign-on” access to the app’s content. Other operators have made their apps available on connected TV devices, but this was a first for Apple TV.
Then Amazon announced its Fire TV Cube, a mashup of Echo and Fire TV that also aspires to control your entertainment center. The device includes IR blasters to provide limited control over existing set-top boxes, a rare instance where Amazon is looking to help a prior technology rather than disrupt it.
Colin and I discuss both moves, as well as the broader context that we see for the “appification of TV.” This is already happening with vMVPDs and we expect over the next couple years all major pay-TV operators will have apps for their services available on all major CTVs. For consumers this will be a huge win as they can avoid renting often outdated and expensive set-tops.
(Note, Colin will be moderating the “Connected TV’s Ad-Supported Future” panel at the VideoNuze Online Video Ad Summit on Tuesday. Register now!)
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Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices, Podcasts, Satellite
Topics: Amazon, Apple, Charter Communications, Podcast
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Amazon’s New Fire TV Cube Plays Nice With Pay-TV Set-Top Boxes
Amazon launched its new Fire TV Cube this morning - logically combining an Echo device with a Fire TV. But the Fire TV Cube has higher ambitions: to be an entertainment hub, controlling compatible TVs, sounds bars, A/V receivers and even cable or satellite set-top boxes, to deliver 4K TV. The set-top box integrations mean that Amazon is positioning the Fire TV Cube as a surprising friend to pay-TV, rather than a disruptor, the company’s typical role.
Amazon said that the Fire TV Cube is compatible with set-top boxes from Comcast, Dish and DirecTV, Spectrum, Verizon, Cox, Alice and Frontier, covering more than 90% of households with a cable or satellite subscription. The feat is accomplished through the use of IR blasters in the Fire TV Cube that can switch the input to the set-top box and then turn it on/off and change channels. I haven’t tried the Fire TV Cube yet so I don’t know how well any of this works, but my prior experiences with IR have shown it can be finicky.Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices, Satellite
Topics: Amazon
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Traditional Pay-TV Subscriber Loss in Q1 Slows to 305K
Traditional pay-TV operators accounting for around 95% of the market lost 305K subscribers in Q1 ’18, compared to 515K in Q1 ’17 according to Leichtman Research Group. The loss is net of 405K Sling TV and DirecTV Now skinny bundle subscribers gained in the quarter by Dish and DirecTV, compared to 265K added in Q1 ’17. Backing out the skinny bundle gains, traditional pay-TV lost 710K subscribers in Q1 ’18 vs. a loss of 710K in Q1 ’17.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Cord-Cutting, Satellite, Skinny Bundles, Telcos
Topics: AT&T, DirecTV Now, Dish Network, Leichtman Research Group, Sling TV, YouTube TV
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VideoNuze Podcast #411: TiVo Data Explains Traditional Pay-TV’s Downward Spiral
I’m pleased to present the 411th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
This week Colin and I share details from TiVo’s new Q4 ’17 Online Video & Pay-TV Trends report (download here), which shows how the high cost of multichannel TV subscriptions is leading to a record level of cord-cutting. The TiVo report also shows how SVOD has gained loyalty and that broadcast TV remains critical for many viewers.
All of this adds up to a dynamic which Colin and I only see firming up further: consumers becoming more proactive through more cord-cutting and cobbling together SVOD subscriptions with low cost, “good enough” skinny bundles and/or antennas. Skinny bundles like YouTube TV, which includes broadcast will become market leaders, while those that don’t (or don’t offer a solution like Sling TV does) will be challenged. Absent a new catalyst, we see this as the state of play in the TV industry for the foreseeable future.
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Categories: Cable TV Operators, Cord-Cutting, Podcasts, Satellite, Telcos
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Research: Pay-TV’s High Prices Continue Alienating Subscribers
Cord-cutting is accelerating, and there’s a simple, unsurprising reason why: pay-TV service is just too expensive. For the fifth quarter in a row, that’s the finding of TiVo’s Online Video & Pay-TV Trends Report. In Q4 ’17, in response to the question “What factors influenced you to cancel your cable/satellite service?” the price/too expensive answer grew by 6.6 percentage points vs. Q4 ’16 to 86.7%, its highest level ever.
Price/too expensive is by far the most important reason, with the second reason, “I use an Internet streaming service” at 39.7%, actually down 8.6 percentage points vs. Q4 ’16. Next was “I use an antenna to get the basic channels on my TV, at 23%, down 4.2 percentage points vs. Q4 ’16.Categories: Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: TiVo, YouTube TV
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Cord-Cutting Accelerates, Top Pay-TV Operators Lost Nearly 1.5 Million Subscribers in 2017
The top 13 pay-TV operators in the U.S., which represent around 95% of the total market, lost nearly 1.5 million subscribers in 2017, double 2016’s loss of 760K subscribers, according to Leichtman Research Group. However, the loss would balloon to nearly 3.1 million subscribers after deducting the 1.6 million skinny bundle or “vMVPD” subscribers that were added in 2017. The 3.1 million multichannel subscriber loss is about 62% higher than the 1.9 million lost in 2016. The top 13 pay-TV operators ended 2017 with approximately 92.2 million subscribers.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Cord-Cutting, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: Leichtman Research Group
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Research: Pay-TV Satisfaction is Up, But Price Remains Achilles Heel
TiVo has released its Q2 ’17 Video Trends Report, finding among other things that satisfaction with the value of pay-TV among subscribers noticeably increased over the prior quarter even as price remains a major concern, and a driver of cord-cutting.
TiVo found that 31.2% of subscribers said they’re “very satisfied” with the value of their pay-TV service, up 7.5 percentage points vs. Q1 ’17 and 11.6 percentage points over the past 2 years. Another 52.9% of subscribers said they’re “satisfied,” roughly flat with Q1 ’17. Respondents saying they’re “unsatisfied” dropped 6.9 percentage points vs. the prior quarter to 15.9%.Categories: Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: TiVo
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VideoNuze Podcast #384: Rounding Up the Week’s Top News
I’m pleased to present the 384th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
On today’s podcast, Colin and I first discuss Q2 ’17 pay-TV video subscriber results. Skinny bundles played a big part in offsetting accelerating losses in traditional multichannel services. Will this continue and if so what are the implications?
We then dig into the DVD market’s decline which was further accelerated this week when Amazon decided to close down its LOVEFiLM DVD-by-mail business in several European countries. Colin notes that Netflix’s DVD business has had a huge drop-off also and he speculates whether it too might get cut loose. On the bright side, Redbox re-upped its deal with Lionsgate, showing that DVDs still have a bit of life left.
Finally, Apple was back in the news this week, reportedly allocating $1 billion for original TV shows. We speculate on whether this will be successful and what challenges Apple will face.
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Topics: Amazon, Apple, Leichtman Research Group, Podcast
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VideoNuze Podcast #371: Pay-TV Losses Are Being Driven By More Than Just Cord-Cutting
I’m pleased to present the 371st edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
The persistent media narrative around pay-TV cord-cutting has gained a lot of traction in the past few weeks as it became clear that the industry lost 700,000-800,000 traditional multichannel video subscribers in Q1 ’17, the first time a first quarter loss has ever occurred.
But pay-TV’s losses are attributable to key factors beyond cord-cutting as our guest this week, Bruce Leichtman, president of Leichtman Research Group, and a premier industry analyst, explains. Bruce reveals why the Q1 loss in fact has more to do with specific pay-TV providers (primarily Dish Network) cutting back on new subscriber promotions. This reduction in “top of the funnel” additions ultimately flows into the net subscriber numbers.
While cord-cutting is indeed ticking up, Bruce walks us through his analysis of why the industry’s dynamics are more nuanced than most media reports suggest. We also dig into the role of connected TVs, the prospects for skinny bundles, SVOD’s impact and how Comcast in particular is bucking industry trends using X1. Bruce also discusses the significance of there now being more broadband subscribers than video subscribers in the U.S.
(Apologies in advance, the recording is a bit scratchy as we were in 3 locations and had some WiFi challenges.)
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Topics: Leichtman Research Group, Podcast
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VideoNuze Podcast #361: Pay-TV’s Woes Illustrated in TiVo’s Research
I’m pleased to present the 361st edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
This week Colin and I discuss TiVo’s 16th quarterly Video Trends Report, which we both covered this week (here and here). We agree that the pay-TV industry has painted itself into a high-cost corner. The consequences of this are increases in cord-cutting, cord-shaving and adoption/use of SVOD, reduction in perception of per channel values and budding interest in new skinny bundles.
All of this is bad news for the industry and the report illustrates the specifics of each of these trends.
The report is available as a complimentary download here.
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Cord-Cutting Remained Modest in Q3, But Potentially Turbulent 2017 Looms
According to industry data compiled by Leichtman Research Group, cord-cutting remained relatively modest in Q3 ’16, with the top 11 pay-TV operators, which account for approximately 95% of the market, losing 255K subscribers vs. 210K lost in Q3 ’15. As has been the trend in recent quarters, cable operators performed better than satellite and telco operators, which are disprorportionately bearing the brunt of the overall market’s slow, but ongoing, contraction.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Skinny Bundles, Telcos
Topics: Leichtman Research Group
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VideoNuze Podcast #345: At $35 Per Month, Is DirecTV Now Going to Disrupt the Pay-TV Industry?
I'm pleased to present the 345th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
What a week it’s been. Google Fiber’s expansion being put on hold. Vessel sold off just for its technology to Verizon. Twitter planning to close Vine. And yet, none of those are the big story of the week for today’s podcast.
Rather, we dig into the news that DirecTV Now will be priced at just $35/month, a level which virtually guarantees it will be a money-loser from day 1 for AT&T. Worse, it runs the risk of cannibalizing high-margin existing pay-TV subscribers from both DirecTV and other pay-TV operators. We don’t know yet which “100+ premium” channels will be in DirecTV Now, but if they include most of what people are currently paying 2-3 times as much for per month, it could be very disruptive.
More broadly we discuss AT&T’s pay-TV strategy, the DirecTV acquisition last year and now the pending Time Warner deal. All of it is a real head-scratcher for me.
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Topics: AT&T, DirecTV Now, Podcast