Posts for 'Cable Networks'

There was plenty of news in the TV/streaming industries this earnings week. First up we discuss Comcast raising the idea of spinning off its cable TV networks to shareholders. A move like this has been speculated about for years, as the networks are buffeted by cord-cutting. Comcast also said Peacock gained 3 million subscribers in Q3, benefiting from the Paris Olympics. 

Meanwhile Alphabet said that YouTube’s revenue for the past 12 months hit $50 billion, a first for the company. As we discuss, it’s likely that subscription services, which include YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, Primetime Channels and Sunday Ticket, exceeded $15 billion. That would make YouTube one of the top 3 streaming subscription providers by size. 

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Four topics for this week’s podcast:

Last week IAB released its new 2024 advertising outlook report based on a survey of media professionals. CTV advertising was at the top of expected gains, revised upward from a 14.5% lift vs. 2023 in IAB’s prior report to 18.4% now. It’s another positive sign for CTV ads and we discuss how big a role political ad spending is playing.

Next up, Comcast’s president shared insights about NBCU’s position in movies and PVOD which were relatively upbeat. While NBCU has had a strong year, as we review, movies still face stiff headwinds.

Third, Charter and AMC signed a new distribution deal that gives many Charter TV subscribers access to the ad-supported version of AMC+. While the deal averts a blackout like the one happening with DIRECTV and Disney currently, Colin and I question whether the deal is sufficiently forward-looking for AMC.

Finally, Colin explains the significance of Amazon introducing TVs that support the NextGen TV standard.

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Last weekend Disney blacked out all of its networks on DIRECTV as the carriage agreement between the two companies expired without a new one being reached. These types of disputes are common in the pay-TV industry, and there’s always a lot of jawboning and finger-pointing, making it difficult to understand the exact proposals and counter-proposals.

What seems indisputable is that Disney is pushing for a continuation of its longstanding approach to bundling all of its networks together, perhaps with some additional flexibility for DIRECTV. With ESPN’s high cost, that means the bundle price to DIRECTV is elevated, even as cord-cutting accelerates. It also means DIRECTV would keep paying for a bunch of smaller channels most of its subscribers don’t watch. None of this is especially friendly to viewers.

The irony of course is that even as Disney is pushing for bundling with traditional distributors like DIRECTV, Disney is separately part of the Venu Sports JV which unbundles its (and Fox’s and Warner Bros. Discovery’s) sports networks and packages them into a new streaming offering. Venu’s launch is now up in the air due to Fubo TV winning a preliminary injunction against it.

Stepping back, as we observe, Disney is also pursuing a variety of other moves that also suggest reduced customer focus. The primary example of this is the latest round of Disney+ price increases that this time are coupled with a crackdown on password sharing - an approach completely counter to how Netflix wisely executed its password limit. Even though Disney eked out a profit in its DTC segment in the latest quarter, Colin and I believe these moves will put a lot of pressure on Disney+ subscriber numbers in the coming quarters.

(Outside of the streaming space, Disney also recently and embarrassingly insisted, and then reversed, its position in the case of a woman who died from an allergic reaction to food at Disney World, with Disney initially insisting her husband lost his rights to sue the company because he signed up for Disney+.)

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On today’s podcast, Colin and I discuss last Friday’s decision by U.S. District Court Judge Margaret Garnett, ruling in favor of Fubo by issuing a preliminary injunction preventing the launch of Venu Sports. Venu is a joint venture of Disney, Fox and Warner Bros. Discovery that includes 14 of the companies’ linear TV sports networks, plus on-demand content, for $43 per month. The companies filed an appeal on Monday.

As is evident from the ruling (thanks to the LightShed team for posting), Disney, Fox and Warner Bros. Discovery have created a “gilded cage” for themselves by - up until Venu - only including their sports networks in pay-TV’s multichannel bundle. Disaggregating these networks exclusively for Venu would create a torrent of cord-cutting, as live sports have become a mainstay for those still committed to pay-TV subscriptions. Judge Garnett agreed Venu would cause an immediate negative impact on Fubo (it would for other pay-TV operators too).

It’s not clear to either of us how specifically the JV partners will address the detailed points Judge Garnett articulated in her ruling, nor how persuasive they’ll be in lifting the injunction, especially given that the criteria for a judge to issue an injunction like this is in the first place is the presumption that an eventual trial would arrive at the same conclusion. All of this leaves Venu’s future highly uncertain.

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Viewers’ shifting consumption from linear TV to streaming is well-documented, but multibillion-dollar write downs in Q2 ’24 at Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount helped quantify just how costly the shift has been to big media companies.

In today’s podcast we discuss the write downs and the broader industry context. When Discovery acquired WarnerMedia, it made a bet-the-company wager on the resiliency of linear TV that has gone completely wrong. Wall Street has ruthlessly punished WBD, knocking its stock down from a high of $77 in March, 2021 to just $7 recently, valuing the company at approximately $17 billion. To put that in context, Netflix’s market cap is now over $290 billion, over 42x WBD’s.

It’s hard to see any near-term positive catalysts for WBD, and if anything, TNT’s loss of NBA rights following this season will create even more pressure. As we detail, Internet economics have come to the TV industry, wiping out the artificial economics of the pay-TV world, and exposing the true current value of legacy cable TV networks. It’s a very unsettling picture.

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Blackouts have been commonplace in the pay-TV industry when operators and TV network owners are unable to come to terms on renewal terms. While the current dispute between Charter and Disney includes typical challenges like pricing and bundling, it also includes Charter’s desire to see its subscribers receive complimentary access to Disney’s DTC apps.

Disney is of course reluctant to do so because it is trying to build a parallel revenue stream as pay-TV declines. Yet, the “pay once, access anywhere” approach was at the heart of the TV Everywhere initiative from years ago, which was meant to provide an elegant solution for subscribers. But that industry effort faltered and TV networks have since invested billions in DTC.

Colin and I discuss what this dispute means for the future on the big TV bundle.

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First up on Inside the Stream this week Colin and I discuss the latest data from Nielsen’s The Gauge report. While it said that “linear TV” viewing fell below 50% for the first time, we explain how a more accurate headline would probably be that broadcast and cable TV viewing fell below 50%. Viewership is following along with pay-TV adoption, which we also discuss fell further in Q2 ’23.

Also in this week’s podcast, new data shows that watching TV with subtitles has become quite popular, especially among younger audiences. Finally, The Roku Channel is going to stream local news from 30 CBS and FOX channels, further converging broadcast TV and streaming.

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In Q2 2023 WB Discovery lost 1.8 million subscribers globally, including 1.3 million domestically and 500K internationally. On the other hand, ARPU increased to $11.09 domestically and $3.65 internationally, for a blended increase to $7.71. On this week’s podcast we discuss the results and what’s ahead, as the company moves forward with its HBO Max streaming service that now includes Discovery+ content.

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Not that long ago, before Netflix became a household name, “premium TV” referred to HBO, Showtime and Starz. They, and their brand extensions, were all subscription-based, advertising-free networks with edgier programming that couldn’t be found elsewhere on the dial. Showtime had plenty of hits over the years, with shows like “Dexter,” “Billions,” “Shameless,” “Weeds” and “Ray Donovan” earning loyal audiences.

Flash forward to this week, as Paramount+ With Showtime officially launched, and decades-old Showtime became an appendage to the Paramount+ primary brand. For a mere $2 increase per month (to $11.99), all the Showtime programming instantly became available to Paramount+ ad-free subscribers.

Showtime’s evolution speaks volumes about how streaming has upended the broader TV industry. In this week’s podcast Colin and I try to put it in perspective.  

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In this week’s podcast we discuss the overlapping “doom loops” that are crushing the TV industry. These were first articulated by MoffettNathanson, and built upon by Colin. The doom loops include 1) TV networks shifting investment/focus from linear TV to streaming, in turn driving more cord-cutting, 2) Fewer remaining pay-TV subscribers available to shoulder the cost of sports TV networks, in turn leading to more cord-cutting, 3) Audience shifts away from traditional TV driving ad dollars to follow, further pressuring traditional TV’s revenue.

Yet another more doom loop could be added with news this week that Disney is finally pushing forward with a direct-to-consumer model for ESPN. Given how expensive that DTC service is likely to be, it’s ultimate adoption probably won’t extend much beyond hard-core sports fans.

But it will cause the unintended consequence of raising the visibility of the multibillion dollar per year “sports tax” non-sports fans have long been paying, which Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred explicated at a Paley Center event last month when he said, “It’s a great business model when a whole bunch of people pay for something they don’t really care if they have or not, which is what the cable bundle did for us. It’s hard to replicate that.”

So it’s safe to say that ESPN’s DTC service will also drive up cord-cutting.

The “doom loops” are now on display for all to see, prompting Colin and I to wonder truly, what the remaining life span of pay-TV is?

Before we get started, we give a quick overview of Wurl’s new ContentDiscovery offering, for which Colin and I wrote an accompanying white paper.

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Back in our Oct. 21, 2022 podcast, “Netflix is Poised for 2023 Revenue Growth,” Colin and I articulated all the reasons we were optimistic about Netflix’s upside in the new year. Primarily we were focused on its newly launched $7/month “Basic with ads” tier and its plans to eliminate password sharing throughout the world.

Flash forward 7 months, and Netflix provided its first tangible results and commentary from the initiatives, as well as optimistic signs of where things go from here. In today’s podcast, Colin and I dig into these signs, including most prominently Netflix’s disclosure that $7/month "Basic with ads" subscribers already produce a higher average monthly revenue than do its $15.50/month "Standard" plan (ad-free) subscribers. Some basic math reveals that "Basic with ads" subscribers drive at least $8.50/month in ad revenue for Netflix, which in turn means that aproximately 55% ($8.50 / $15.50) of "Basic with ads" subscribers’ total revenue is already derived from ads, not subscriber payments.

That Netflix accomplished all of this despite 1) it still being very early days for the ad offering, 2) a massive headwind in the ad business due to recession/etc. worries, 3) all of its ad revenue being “linear TV replacement” or upper-funnel reach and frequency inventory, with nothing yet from more valuable full/lower funnel offerings, suggests the ad business is already a big win for Netflix and has huge potential.

(At this point I can’t resist noting that I have been badgering Netflix for years to launch a lower-priced ad-supported tier because of the upside…see “Why Netflix Will Launch an Ad-Supported Tier in 2020” from Dec. ’19, “6 Reasons Why Netflix Should Launch an Ad-Supported Tier Now” from Mar. ’20, and “Revisiting Why Netflix Should Launch an Ad-Supported Tier” from Mar. ’21 for a sample of my haranguing. So, in the category of “better late than never,” hallelujah, Netflix finally, finally put aside its religious objections to advertising and saw the light.)

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Cord-cutting is accelerating. Deep-pocketed Big Tech (Amazon, Apple, Google) are scooping up marquee sports rights in an effort to add value to their services businesses. Linear TV viewing is collapsing. Consumers' attention is fragmenting as myriad social media and other activities beckon for eyeballs.

As Colin and I discuss on this week’s episode, ESPN finds itself at the center of this storm, as the venerable TV network gets squeezed from all sides. Adding urgency to the problem, and as we also explore this week, Sinclair's Diamond Sports Group, which owns Bally Sports, a big collection of Regional Sports Networks (RSNs) acquired from Disney as part of its Fox deal, is edging toward declaring bankruptcy.

While Diamond’s demise is closely tied to the debt it incurred by overpaying for the Fox RSNs in 2019, it raises more consequential questions about the health of the sports TV ecosystem - and therefore the value of sports broadcasting rights themselves. These rights have been funded primarily through the “sports tax” on pay-TV subscribers who are not sports fans (see “Not a Sports Fan, Then You’re Getting Sacked for At Least $2 Billion Per Year,” which I wrote back in February, 2011). Non-sports fans are getting soaked for far more than this in 2023, with huge - and mostly unknown - sums embedded in their monthly pay-TV bills (partly contributing to escalating cord-cutting).

Net, net, the delicate equilibrium in the sports TV ecosystem is under major pressure. With respect to ESPN, newly reinstated Disney CEO Bob Iger has a pressing - yet until recently unimaginable - question to address: long-term, is ESPN still a good business? And if it’s not, should Disney keep the network anyway, or seek to sell it off?

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HBO Max is coming back to Amazon Prime Video Channels, reversing a move by prior owner WarnerMedia just over a year ago. Removing HBO Max led to an immediate loss of 5 million subscribers who had signed up through Amazon Channels (it’s unclear how many rejoined directly).

On today’s podcast, Colin and I try puzzle through why WBD, which is now HBO’s owner, would want HBO Max to rejoin Amazon Channels. Although Amazon will surely generate some incremental HBO Max subscribers, their lifetime value is likely to be far lower than HBO Max subscribers who sign up directly with the service. That’s because Amazon has “customer ownership” of these subscribers and shares little to no data with SVOD providers that would be critical to retention (starting with an email address to directly communicate with them). I wrote about my personal experience with this in August, 2021.

The move seems to suggest a push for incremental subscribers, despite the likelihood of a higher churn rate. That’s at odds with streaming services executives recent emphasis on profitability over pure subscriber growth. It’s possible Colin and I are missing something here. If you think you know what it is please let us know.

To wrap up the discussion we also discuss WBD's reported new strategy to collect its streaming services under the "Max" brand in 2023.

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Earlier this week AMC Networks disclosed a large-scale layoff (reportedly 20%) and that their CEO was departing. AMC Networks’ chairman James Dolan said in an internal memo that “It was our belief that cord cutting losses would be offset by gains in streaming. This has not been the case. We are primarily a content company and the mechanisms for the monetization of content are in disarray.”

AMC Networks’ predicament typifies what’s happening across the industry. In today’s podcast Colin and I share estimates of what AMC might be earning from its streaming services vs. what it earns from its linear channels distributed by pay-TV operators. Other data we share highlights the conundrum broadcast and cable TV networks face: their assumptions for target pricing for their streaming services and subscriber forecasts are too high.

The monetization disarray AMC and others are experiencing is the messy transition from the pay-TV world that masked what consumers were paying for individual channels and how they were valued vs. the DTC world where consumers are in full control.

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Welcome to this week’s edition of Inside the Stream, the podcast where nScreenMedia’s Chief Analyst Colin Dixon and I take listeners inside the world of streaming video.

Rather than focus on just one story this week as we usually do, today we do segments on 5 different stories that caught our attention. First we pick up on last week’s podcast about the dustup between YouTube TV and NBCUniversal. The companies avoided going over the cliff together and managed to extend their relationship. But it is a harbinger of more fights between networks and virtual (and traditional) pay-TV operators as the size of the pie continues to shrink due to cord-cutting.

Then Colin and I have a spirited debate about Google’s Fiber TV, which is being retired, and the broader question of whether Google Fiber’s 1 gigabit per second broadband service is a worthwhile product offering (Colin thinks it is and I think it isn’t, and I haven’t since it launched way back in February, 2010, see “Google’s Fiber-to-the-Home Experiment Could Cost $750 Million or More.” Also see "Google Fiber is Out of Synch With Realities of Typical Consumer Technology Adoption" from July, 2012 and "No Surprise, Google Fiber is Falling Short of Expectations" from August, 2016.)

From there we discuss the steep drop in L7 TV ratings that has continued in the first week of this Fall season. But even at these depressed levels, I assert that the most popular broadcast TV shows like “NCIS” still draw audiences that may likely be bigger than the first 7 days following the drop of a popular show on a big SVOD service like Netflix. Related, we discuss new Kantar data on SVOD churn in Q2. For more insight, have a look at my post from November, 2019, “Will Spinning Video Subscriptions Become a Thing?”

Finally, there’s a game of musical chairs happening in our industry and this week’s move by Kelly Campbell from president of Hulu to president of Peacock is just the latest example. We discuss why these executives’ shuffling matters to all of us as consumers.

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Welcome to this week’s edition of Inside the Stream, the podcast where nScreenMedia’s Chief Analyst Colin Dixon and I take listeners inside the world of streaming video.

YouTube TV and NBCUniversal have become embroiled in a highly public dispute about the details of their distribution agreement. On today’s episode, Colin and Will discuss what’s really behind the dispute and the larger industry shifts that impacting the negotiation.

It is a very complicated situation as each company is trying to hold on to certain industry conventions (such as most favored nation pricing), while also broadening into new areas (such as including Peacock Premium, a streaming service, with underlying YouTube TV subscriptions). Each company also comes to the table with a host of business imperatives, with many driven by Wall Street’s expectations and the overall streaming market’s evolution.

Colin and I try to break things down. As I mention, one significant factor weighing on my assessment of things is Comcast’s gigantic missed opportunity when it decided not to acquire the 70% of Hulu it didn’t already own, back in 2018 when Comcast and Disney were battling over control of Fox (see "Why Comcast Should Take Control of Hulu" from May, 2018). Comcast had a one-time opportunity to vastly expand its footprint in streaming and CTV advertising and likely to position a combined Hulu-Peacock entity for eventual spin-off (see "Quick Math Shows Comcast Missed Out on Almost $6 Billion in Annual Revenue by Not Buying the Rest of Hulu" from January, 2020).

Instead Comcast passed and became a passive owner in Hulu. Comcast will eventually realize a nice return on this stake, but Comcast needs strategic assets for the streaming era far more than it needs additional cash.

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AT&T is spinning off WarnerMedia to Discovery, just 4 1/2 years since it announced it was acquiring Time Warner (as WarnerMedia was then known) and just three years since the deal actually closed, following exhaustive regulatory challenges and litigation. For AT&T, the U-turn in strategy is a tacit admission that it didn’t realize the benefits it touted as the rationale for the deal.

That’s no surprise because, as I said at the time, the benefits were illusory and were completely out of synch with realities that broadband, streaming and connected TV were driving. The press release announcing the Time Warner acquisition was filled with corporate gobbledygook such as “The future of video is mobile and the future of mobile is video” and “Combined company positioned to create new customer choices - from content creation and distribution to a mobile-first experience that’s personal and social.”

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Yesterday, CNBC reported that HBO Max’s upcoming ad-supported tier will be priced at $9.99 per month, a $5 per month discount vs. $14.99 per month for its existing ad-free service. The $5 differential is mostly in line with the approach other subscription services with an ad-supported tier, such as Hulu, Peacock and Paramount+ have taken and is therefore unsurprising.

But there are still many interesting questions about the HBO Max ad-supported tier and how it will be positioned relative to the ad-free tier. One big one is which content will actually carry ads, and which won’t. At AT&T’s recent investor day, WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar said “We will not be having advertising inside the HBO original series.” Does “inside” mean that only mid-roll ads are off the table, but pre-rolls and post-rolls will be ok? Or does it mean no ads for HBO original series, period? If the latter, does it imply that Max originals are going to be the main content that will have ads?

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At its ONE21 developer conference this morning, NBCUniversal announced plans to launch its NBCU Audience insights Hub, which will contain all of its first-party audience data. The “proprietary data clean room” will give authorized partners permission to run restricted queries across their and NBCU’s audience data without exposing users’ personally identifiable information.

Using the NBCU data, partners will be able to discover overlaps in their audiences to drive better targeting and cross-platform campaign planning. Partners will gain access to NBCU’s linear TV APIs and certified reach measurement models to improve efficiency and effectiveness. NBCU plans to add to its measurement capabilities so that partners can do their own self-service multi-platform attribution. The clean room framework is being powered by Snowflake and VideoAmp is the first measurement partner to be integrated.

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The number of scripted original TV shows released on broadcast, cable and streaming dropped slightly from 532 in 2019 to 493 in 2020 according to FX Networks, which has been tracking the number for the past 10 years. FX chairman John Landgraf previously dubbed the spiraling number of scripted originals “Peak TV.” Back in 2009 there were 210 scripted originals, according to FX.

The reduction in 2020 is likely a temporary pause due to the effects of Covid shutting down productions and shifting network strategies. That’s because the streaming industry, where the majority of Peak TV originals has come from, is continuing to expand aggressively, in both subscription and ad-supported.

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