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Research: Shift in Ad Spending From TV to OTT Expected Over Next 2 Years
New research from SpotX reveals an expected shift in advertising spending from TV to OTT over the next 2 years. The research was conducted by Kagan among 41 U.S. pay-TV operators, OTT providers, content owner and advertisers. Just 11% of advertisers reported spending 21%-40% of their budgets on OTT today, but that’s expected to rise to 67% doing so in 2 years. Meanwhile, 33% said they currently spend 21%-40% on TV, but that’s expected to drop to 22% in the same time frame.
Categories: Advertising
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VideoNuze Podcast #350: Lots of Reasons Why Sports TV Will Be Under Pressure in 2017
I'm pleased to present the 350th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
This week we return to the cost of sports and specifically why sports TV will be under pressure in 2017. Colin noted new SNL Kagan data this week that sports programming now costs pay-TV operators $18.37/month, which is 40% of their total programming budget. Colin also noticed that DirecTV is planning to increase its rates by $2-$6/month next month, which it blamed on the rising costs of programming.
These types of increases will no doubt contribute to a rising level of cord-cutting and cord-nevering, especially for entertainment-centric viewers who now have more choices of great TV shows to watch than ever and therefore have less reason to pay for expensive multichannel bundles. We’ve seen some of this effect already in the soft NFL ratings this season. Then there’s the question of where skinny bundles will fit in with sports; they’ll almost certainly have to keep sports to a minimum to maintain low rates.
As we discuss, all of this threatens the unique value of sports as a firewall for pay-TV, live viewing and advertising - the reasons why sports rights have ballooned in the first place. 2017 is going to be a very important in redefining sports’ actual value in the video ecosystem.
Listen in to learn more!
Click here to listen to the podcast (22 minutes, 45 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
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The VideoNuze podcast is also available in iTunes...subscribe today!Topics: DirecTV, Podcast, SNL Kagan
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VideoNuze Podcast #281: Pay-TV’s Programming Costs Spiral While Kids’ Interest in TV Wanes
I'm pleased to present the 281st edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
Earlier this week SNL Kagan released an updated forecast of fee increases for pay-TV operators to carry broadcast and TV networks. Using that data Colin modeled what DirecTV’s programming costs would be and how they would translate into higher subscriber rates and lower margins.
No surprise, Colin’s analysis further highlights how expensive pay-TV is becoming. Colin and I discuss how this directly translates into more cord-cutting and cord-nevering given the range of inexpensive, high-quality OTT options.
All of this is happening against a backdrop of kids abandoning TV altogether. That trend was illustrated by new research from Miner and Co. Studio, which revealed that 57% of parents of kids age 2-12 say their kid prefers a device OTHER than the TV to watch video. Worse, almost half of these parents said sometimes as a punishment they take their kid’s device away and instead make their kid watch TV. We discuss the implications. (make sure to watch Miner’s video interviews too)
Listen in to learn more!
Click here for previous podcasts
Click here to add the podcast feed to your RSS reader.
The VideoNuze podcast is also available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Broadcasters, Cable Networks, Devices, Podcasts
Topics: ESPN, Miner , Podcast, SNL Kagan
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SNL Kagan Forecasting 10% of U.S. Homes Will Cut the Cord by 2015
Researcher SNL Kagan is forecasting that 10% U.S. homes (12.1 million) will cut the cord on their pay-TV subscriptions by the end of 2015, substituting in over-the-top alternatives. At the end of 2011, 4% or 4.5 million homes will have done so. Still, Kagan sees pay-TV subscriptions actually increasing, though not at a rate fast enough to maintain current penetration levels (see yearly forecast after the break).
Kagan isn't providing any additional profile information on these cord-cutters, but as I've said before, I think the most vulnerable buckets are the "cord-nevers" (i.e. college grads and others who simply don't sign up for pay-TV service in the first place) and entertainment-only viewers who don't care about live sports that are only available on cable TV channels.
Categories: Cable TV Operators
Topics: SNL Kagan
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ESPN Continues Dampening Cord-Cutting Fears
ESPN released the its latest round of research on cord-cutting this week, finding that a tiny .18% of American homes with both pay-TV service and a
broadband connection dropped their video service between the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011. ESPN said the .18% is actually lower than the .28% it found in its prior period research and is fully offset by a comparable number of people who upgraded from a "broadcast-only" service level to a full pay-TV package. Not surprisingly, ESPN said that among medium-to-heavy sports viewers there was zero cord-cutting.
Categories: Sports
Topics: ESPN, Nielsen, SNL Kagan
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ESPN Wades Into Cord-Cutting Research Fray With New Data
Not content to sit by and watch the headlines claiming significant cord-cutting is underway, ESPN is wading into the cord-cutting research fray, releasing a new analysis of its own, which it asserts that the activity has been totally overblown.
By analyzing Nielsen data, ESPN says that in the past 3 months, .28 percent of U.S. households have cut the cord, though mitigating this decrease is that .17 percent of households that had been subscribing to the lowest tier of pay-TV service (dubbed "broadcast-only") upgraded to pay-TV and broadband Internet services. With approximately 110 million households in the U.S., ESPN is saying around 308,000 homes cut the cord, with 187,000 upgrading from broadcast-only, for a net loss due to cord-cutting of 121,000 households. Interestingly, that 121,000 households is quite close to the 119,000 subscribers that SNL Kagan said that U.S. pay-TV operators lost in Q3 '10.
Categories: Sports
Topics: ESPN, Nielsen, SNL Kagan
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How About Some Actual Data in the Cord-Cutting Debate?
No sooner did SNL Kagan's press release, announcing that the U.S. pay-TV industry had lost 119K subscribers in Q3 '10, following a loss of 216K subscribers in Q2, hit the wire today, than the blogosphere was alight with a fresh round of posts that cord-cutting was to blame. This chorus was surely egged on by Kagan senior analyst Ian Olgeirson's remark in the press release that "it is becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss the impact of over-the-top substitution on video subscriber performance." That remark was a notable change of tone from Kagan's Q2 release which ascribed subscriber losses solely to the country's ongoing economic woes.
Note however that Olgeirson only offered his opinion, rather than any actual, hard data from Kagan about cord-cutting's impact. That is characteristic of both sides of the current cord-cutting debate - lots of opining, but little-to-no reliable data. In my own Q3 analysis - in which I suggested that the pay-TV as a whole likely lost around 97K subscribers in Q3 (though the group of 8 of the top 9 pay-TV operators actually gained subscribers) - I noted that nobody truly knows the impact of cord-cutting, yet anyway.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: SNL Kagan
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Pay-TV Industry Loses Subscribers in Q2 '10 For First Time Ever; Cable Bears Brunt
Research firm SNL Kagan is reporting today that the U.S. pay-TV industry (cable/satellite/telco) lost 216,000 multichannel TV subscribers in Q2 '10, the first time the industry as a whole has lost subscribers. Cable operators bore the brunt of the losses, dropping 711,000 subscribers, with Kagan saying 6 of the 8 operators reporting suffered record quarterly losses. By contrast, telcos added 414,000 subs in the quarter and satellite providers gained 81,000. The losses leave cable's industry share at 61%, down from 63.6% a year ago.
Kagan analyst Mariam Rondeli ascribed the quarterly losses to low housing formation and high unemployment due to the ongoing recession, coupled with churn due to promotions from last year's broadcast digital transitions expiring. Rondeli pointed out that over-the-top video alternatives were not the cause. By comparison, the pay-TV gained 378,000 subscribers in Q2 '09, meaning there was a swing of 594,000 subscribers year-over-year. U.S. Pay-TV providers as a whole ended Q2 '10 with 100.1 million subscribers.
Looking ahead, I've heard some murmurs that Q3 '10 could be softer than in prior years, again partially due to the recession, but also because seasonal college students' subscriptions may be reduced due to over-the-top alternatives. While we've yet to see any tangible evidence of cord-cutting, the first impact may simply be slower multichannel sign-ups from younger users more accustomed to watching online. We'll see.
What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).Categories: Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: SNL Kagan
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