Posts for 'Aereo'

I'm pleased to present the 162nd edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon, who is back from spending several days at CES. Though Colin concedes he didn't see anything that really "blew his socks off," he does share specific reactions to what he saw in second screen apps, UltraViolet, home gateways, Ultra High-Definition TVs, Google TV and incremental improvements in Smart TVs.

One thing that did get Colin jazzed was Near Field Communications (NFC), which allows devices to talk to each other, simply by touching. Colin describes it as "magic" and was quite impressed.

We then shift topics to discuss Aereo, which earlier this week announced a new $38 million financing and plans to expand to 22 metro areas in 2013. As I wrote, I think that as Aereo's awareness increases this year, it's going to challenge pay-TV because it effectively eliminates the broadcast TV reception element of pay-TV's value proposition. By "hollowing-out" this important feature, Aereo will cause many pay-TV subscribers to question whether they really need/value the myriad cable networks they don't really watch. Given pay-TV's escalating cost and Aereo as an alternative, many people could begin to scale back.


Click here to listen to the podcast (22 minutes, 31 seconds)

Click here for previous podcasts

The VideoNuze podcast is available in iTunes...subscribe today!

Yesterday, Aereo announced a new $38 million financing (bringing its total to $63 million to date) and its intention to roll out to 22 additional U.S. cities in 2013 (full list here). Listening to a replay of CEO and founder Chet Kanojia's interview yesterday at the Citi Media Conference in Las Vegas, I'm further convinced that one of the byproducts of Aereo's expansion - if it gains market acceptance - will be to put pay-TV's value proposition in the cross hairs.

For many consumers, Aereo's core offering of inexpensive, high-quality access to broadcast TV networks via IP devices will directly crystallize the question "how much is a monthly pay-TV subscription really worth to me?" That's because, for many pay-TV subscribers, one of the key benefits of their subscription (which they may not even fully realize) is the inclusion of a de facto broadcast antenna.

continue reading

At the recent VideoSchmooze, Colin Dixon from The Diffusion Group interviewed Chet Kanojia, founder and CEO of Aereo in a case study focused on innovation. While much of this year's media coverage of Aereo has focused on broadcasters' copyright litigation against it, far less attention has been paid to the perfect storm of technology and consumer trends that have enabled Aereo.

In fact Chet says that even 2 years ago Aereo would not have been possible. In the interview Chet details how the striking reduction in costs / increase in performance for key enablers like bandwidth, storage, cloud computing and transcoding are driving the business. Chet explains how the entire computational industry is subsidizing these trends, which Aereo and others are capitalizing on. In addition, Chet discusses how shifting consumer perceptions are creating an opening for innovative new business models like Aereo.

The interview provides fascinating insights on today's technology trends from a world-class technologist that all media and technology companies - startups and incumbents - need to be paying attention to.

Watch the video

Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group and I are back for the 152nd edition of the VideoNuze-TDG podcast. This week Colin and I first share our reactions to the launch of Boxee TV earlier this week. Colin is struck by Boxee TV's unlimited video recording feature, the first that either of us have seen. Colin also points out potential challenges with upstream bandwidth that could be a challenge for Boxee TV recording programs at HD quality. Overall though, Colin likes Boxee TV's direction and believes it's a better strategy for the company than the original Boxee Box.

As I wrote earlier this week, I see Boxee TV in the context of innovation happening with broadcast TV and DVR. Along with Simple.TV and Aereo, consumers are gaining more control of their broadcast TV experience. In addition, they're all overlapping to an extent with Hulu and Hulu Plus which already offer unprecedented access to broadcast TV programs. It's still too early to tell which of these approaches will succeed, but Colin and I share our predictions.

Click here to listen to the podcast (21 minutes, 39 seconds)

Click here for previous podcasts

The VideoNuze-TDG podcast is available in iTunes...subscribe today!

Odd as it may seem on the surface, the intersection of broadcast TV and the DVR has become a hotbed of innovation. Yesterday brought the latest player in this space, Boxee TV, which followed news earlier this week that Simple.TV has begun shipping, which itself followed the launch earlier this year of Aereo.

While each has its own unique approach, they all fundamentally provide viewers more flexibility to record and play back broadcast TV programs by leveraging over-the-top, broadband delivery, while seeking to undercut the price of a monthly subscription to pay-TV. They are all segmenting the consumer market, pursuing a cohort of "cord-cutters" and "cord-nevers" open to alternatives to pricey multichannel TV bundles.

continue reading

I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 145th edition of the VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast. In this week's podcast Colin and I talk about what resonates most for us about Aereo, based on my interview with its founder and CEO Chet Kanojia, earlier this week (Part 1 here and Part 2 here).

Foremost for both of us is Aereo's simplicity and ease of access. Aereo aligns with the expectations of digital natives, people who expect self-service offerings that have low entry barriers and commitment levels. Aereo capitalizes on key vulnerabilities of today's pay-TV services - not just that they are expensive, but that they are complicated, with various tiers, channels, fees, clunky set-top boxes and special offers tied to extended contracts, all of which are confusing and burdensome to many people, especially digital natives.

Embedded in Aereo's simplicity/convenience value proposition is its focus. Aereo is not trying to be all things to all people; rather it is starting by offering flexible broadcast TV reception, mainly for use on iPads, for a low daily cost. We were both struck by Chet's comparison of Aereo to the early days of cable TV. While their architectures are fundamentally different, their core initial offer of improving reception and access to broadcast TV programming, is similar.  In this respect, you gotta love the durability of broadcast TV as a value driver.

However, cable's early model of cleaning up broadcast signal delivery eventually gave way to retransmission consent fees. For both Colin and me, this is the area that remains murkiest for Aereo. While it won the first round in court, it faces a long journey of legal challenges ahead. In particular, Colin is not convinced of Chet's belief that should Aereo adversely impact retrans fees, cross ownership of broadcast assets would enable media conglomerates to remain whole by shifting around fees to cable assets.

Finally, we are both impressed with how Aereo is capitalizing on so many of today's key technology and consumer behavioral trends. These include the declining cost of IP video delivery, storage costs and processing power, along with the rise of cloud computing, mobile devices (namely the iPad) and the shift to on-demand viewing. Chet views Aereo as a "platform" that unites all of these into a compelling consumer offering. We agree. In particular, its low, "success-based" capex model means Aereo should be able to rollout quickly and inexpensively. I draw a contrast with Google's costly fiber buildout in Kansas City.

Chet downplays Aereo's disruptive impact, but Colin and I agree it's potentially significant. Time will tell.

Listen in to learn more!

Click here to listen to the podcast (20 minutes, 50 seconds)


Click here for previous podcasts

The VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast is available in iTunes...subscribe today!

In the second part of my interview with Aereo's founder and CEO Chet Kanojia, we begin by discussing how the company relates to the pay-TV industry, and whether it is incenting cord-cutting and cord-nevering, or is simply benefiting from this activity. In fact, Chet believes Aereo is a retardant for cord-nevering, because it helps people inclined in this direction to get accustomed to paying for video. Down the road he envisions how that helps them to become pay-TV subscribers.

Chet sees cable as an inspiration for Aereo, in the sense that it too started off providing a simple convenience service, namely improved broadcast reception. Cable's model of layering on subsequent services is one that Aereo could follow as well.

Of course much has been made about how Aereo potentially relieves pay-TV operators from the burden of expensive retransmission consent fees. No surprise, it was hard to pin Chet down on this issue, but generally he believes that given the cross ownership between broadcast TV networks, cable TV networks and cable TV operators, any pressure on one revenue stream would simply get resolved by adjusting the others.

Other topics we talk about include Hulu, Netflix, net neutrality, bandwidth caps, Barry Diller's role, the composition of Aereo's team, expansion plans and its success-based capex model.

Watch Part 2 of the interview below. Part 1 is here.

Watch the interview

There's likely no online video startup that has created quite the stir this year that Aereo has. But what's been lost in the coverage of its legal wrangling with broadcasters and high-profile backing from Barry Diller is a clear understanding of Aereo's business strategy: Who are its target customers? What is its real value proposition? How will it compete in a crowded video landscape? What new business opportunities is it trying to create for the TV ecosystem? And how are things going so far?

These are among the questions that Aereo founder and CEO Chet Kanojia addresses in a 47-minute interview I did with him at the company's offices earlier this week. Chet looks at today's TV ecosystem and sees a world filled with inconvenience, irrational pricing/bundling and misalignments with emerging consumer expectations/behaviors. Like all can-do entrepreneurs, Chet's reaction is to see opportunity; in Aereo's case, that means delivering a "simple, rationally-priced, convenient" service to people who have become accustomed to these types of benefits in other areas of their lives.

As Chet explains, some of Aereo's prospects are "cord-nevers" - younger, Internet-centric users who place a huge value on convenience and are cost sensitive. And others are cord-cutters, who are ready to move on from taking myriad pay-TV channels they don't watch or value. Importantly, Chet doesn't see Aereo incenting these emerging behaviors, but rather benefiting from them.

In part 1 of our wide-ranging interview below, we also discuss Aereo's marketing approach and why sampling is so critical, the breakthrough antenna technology that enables Aereo's service and of course the dynamics with the broadcasters who are so determined to shut Aereo down.

Tomorrow I'll post Part 2.

Watch the interview

I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 142nd edition of the VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast. In this week's podcast Colin and I first discuss NBC's Olympics video streaming. Despite some high profile criticism, we agree that NBC has actually done a pretty good job and has laid a foundation for live streaming to be an expected part of all Olympics coverage in the future.

Next we review Q2 '12 results from some of the largest pay-TV operators. Video subscriber losses continue, although Q2 is historically a soft quarter. Colin notes that recent TDG research shows the pay-TV value proposition is increasingly challenged and he believes that means higher churn is ahead, with bigger opportunities for OTT options.

Speaking of those options, Aereo announced new low-cost plans and both Colin and I agree that they're a clever way to reduce entry barriers and increase viewing flexibility. It's still early, but we like Aereo's odds of success.

Last up, we note the early demise of the Nexus Q media streaming device, a product that both us called a dud a couple of weeks ago.  

Listen in to learn more.

Click here to listen to the podcast (21 minutes, 43 seconds)

Click here for previous podcasts

The VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast is available in iTunes...subscribe today!

I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 139th edition of the VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast.

Breaking with tradition, we're posting this week's podcast a day early to share our thoughts on Aereo's big legal victory - the decision by U.S. District Judge Judith Nathan to deny the broadcast networks' request for a preliminary injunction to block Aereo's service. As Colin and I agree, though the broadcasters have promised to pursue an appeal, for now it's a very significant milestone for Aereo, as it validates the company's assertion that the Cablevision precedent should hold.  

Our discussion focuses on the ruling's implications. Certainly it opens up a whole new option for pay-TV operators to avoid paying hundreds of millions in retransmission consent fees by either partnering with Aereo or developing comparable technology (patent issues notwithstanding) to deliver broadcast programs. It also opens up opportunities for OTT providers to potentially beef up their services in partnership with Aereo. While Colin sees Aereo as offering some benefits for the broadcasters, I view the ruling as key setback to their strategy to develop a secondary revenue stream.

The ruling also comes in the context of two other significant developments - the decision by DirecTV to drop Viacom's networks and the news that Netflix's usage surpassed 1 billion hours in June. Both underscore the impact that evolving consumer behaviors are having on the relationship between pay-TV and online video delivery. The Aereo decision scrambles that dynamic even further. No question, we are living in very interesting times.

Listen in to hear all of the details.

Click here to listen to the podcast (23 minutes, 17 seconds)

Click here for previous podcasts

The VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast is available in iTunes...subscribe today!

At the recent Cable Show, I had the great pleasure of doing a video interview with Craig Moffett, who is SVP and senior telecom, cable and satellite TV analyst at the investment firm Sanford Bernstein. Craig is likely the most widely-followed Wall Street analyst of the pay-TV industry - both video and broadband - and someone whose work I have long respected.

Craig generously spent almost 45 minutes sharing his views on practically every pressing industry issue. A key recurring theme: that the pay-TV industry is so "ossified" and inflexible that true innovation with TV can only come from outside the industry. I have split the interview into 2 video segments below. For anyone who wants to better understand where the pay-TV and online video industries are heading, and what the key drivers are, I highly recommend these.

In Part 1, we discuss:
- Pay-TV industry's overall health
- Why cable isn't really a video business, but rather an infrastructure business
- The truth about cord-cutting and cord-shaving
- What role online original programs will have with younger "cord-never" viewers
- Why young people already think of pay-TV as a luxury service and settle for "good enough" alternatives
- How expensive sports programming is driving pay-TV's affordability challenge
- What will happen with Aereo
- And more

In Part 2, we discuss:
- The role of usage-based pricing by broadband ISPs
- Why the threat of Netflix is far lower today than a year ago
- Nickelodeon's ratings problem and the role of Netflix in creating it
- Whether cable networks will cut back licensing to OTT operators
- What will happen with Dish Network's Auto Hop feature
- Why TV Everywhere will remain on a slow rollout
- What disruptive roles Google and Apple might play
- And more

Watch the video interview

Here's a measure of just how all-important big-time sports have become in driving the entire TV ecosystem: in NBCU's latest court filing against Aereo (embedded here), it cites as one of the harmful consequences of Aereo's potential success that NBCU would be unable to fund its programming. But what single example of expensive programming does NBCU call out? Not its news or entertainment - staples of the traditional broadcast network program agenda - but rather its 9-year, $10 billion Sunday Night NFL rights deal.

Sports are considered so critical to broadcasters because they're primarily viewed live and therefore immune to DVR-based ad-skipping (see yesterday's DISH Network "Auto-Hop" news for more on why DVRs are so threatening). As a result, the networks have aggressively bid for sports rights, led of course by the pursuit of NFL and Olympics deals. But those deals have been partly funded by burgeoning retransmission consent fee payments negotiated from pay-TV operators. These payments give broadcasters another revenue stream beyond just advertising (and just like cable networks, as pay-TV operators pay more in retrans fees, rate increases are passed along to ALL their subscribers, whether sports fans or not).

I Want to Keep Reading!

I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 125th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 16, 2012. This week finds Colin on business in Brazil, and he's been doing some sleuthing on how Netflix's rollout is going there. Back on the domestic front, we also discuss Intel's rumored TV plans and the latest on Aereo's rollout.

Colin reports that anecdotal feedback on Netflix's content selection in Brazil is underwhelming as it is perceived as mostly older titles. He raises the critical question of whether Netflix was wise in choosing not to partner with any established players which might have brought content as well as an understanding of local conditions. Colin points out that the landscape is very different in Brazil vs. the U.S., with pay-TV penetration of just 20% and over-the-air broadcast viewing dominant. All that said, Colin has heard that Netflix is advertising heavily to build its brand. And Brazil is of course an enormous market, representing big long-term opportunities.

continue reading

I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 123rd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 2, 2012. This week's podcast has a different format; instead of discussing one topic in depth, we touch on three areas - the new lawsuit against Aereo, Netflix's deal with Starz ending (and whether the "flix" is coming out of Netflix) and UltraViolet's strategy of using discs to drive adoption.

continue reading

I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 121st edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Feb. 17, 2012. In this week's podcast we puzzle through Aereo - a new broadcast TV over IP / DVR-in-the-cloud provider, which this week announced a $20.5 million financing led by IAC's Barry Diller, plus a March 14th launch date in New York City.

I happened to be in NYC this week, and aside from "Linsanity," Aereo seemed to be the hottest topic around. But talk about a lack of consensus on its prospects! Some believe Aereo is going to be a major disruptor to the existing broadcast and pay-TV ecosystem, while others see it as a total non-starter, whether because broadcasters will succeed in shutting it down or because consumers won't be compelled by its proposition.

continue reading