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HBO GO Is Terrific; The Question is How Aggressively Will It Be Deployed Longer-Term?
I've been testing HBO GO for the last couple of weeks and my reaction is overwhelmingly positive. The service is easy to navigate and incredibly responsive. Importantly, the video quality (particularly in the iPad app) is top-notch - you'll quickly forget the video is actually being delivered over the Internet and a WiFi network). And with over 1,600 pieces of content, there's no shortage of what to watch. Though I'm not an HBO subscriber, I've watched a number of HBO programs on DVD over the years (e.g. Entourage, The Wire, The Sopranos) and so the ability to get both past seasons, as well as current season episodes, in one space is highly convenient.
Obviously I'm not alone in my reactions as there have been over 3 million downloads of HBO GO just since its May 2 official release. Considering HBO has 28 million US subscribers, that's an impressive penetration level (even more so because HBO doesn't yet have agreements for HBO GO with all pay-TV providers, so some HBO subscribers can't yet access the service).
For now HBO has positioned HBO GO as a value add for existing subscribers. That's a fine place to start, but as the video landscape becomes ever more competitive, it's hard to see how HBO will be content to deploy such as strong asset mainly in a defensive manner, and not be tempted to start using it more aggressively. If and when that happens, that would be a major change in the pay-TV model. Though I questioned HBO's future in "Could HBO Be the Next BLOCKBUSTER?" HBO GO creates scenarios for how the company thrive in the online video era.
Categories: Cable Networks, Devices
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #100 - Cable Show Review - June 17, 2011
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Podcasts
Topics: Cable Show, Netflix
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New Research Shows Netflix Is A Catalyst for Cord-Cutting and Cord-Shaving
The Diffusion Group released interesting research yesterday which supports a view that I've had for a while: heavy Netflix streaming usage correlates with a propensity to cut back on pay-TV services. Although Netflix has strenuously
tried to position itself as a low-priced compliment to pay-TV services, the reality is that for some pay-TV subscribers who have begun shifting their viewing hours to Netflix streaming, the two are more substitutes than compliments. As I've argued, these are primarily people who are entertainment-oriented, don't care about live sports, are comfortable with on-demand, not live-viewing, are budget-constrained, or some combination of all of these.
The headline of the research is that the number of Netflix streamers considering downgrading their pay-TV service doubled year-over-year from 16% to 32%. But to me the key nugget is that among those who said they are likely to downgrade or eliminate their pay-TV service, 61% of moderate to heavy Netflix streamers cite online video usage as the top reason for doing so (with two-thirds of these citing Netflix specifically), while just 24% point to economic issues as their top reason. Conversely, for all Netflix streamers, almost half point to economic issues as their main reason (e.g. "cost of service" and "need to save money"), with just 34% pointing to online video usage as their top reason.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Netflix, The Diffusion Group
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Why Cord-Cutting May Actually Be Good News for Cable Operators After All
Yesterday's big headlines - that Netflix now accounts for almost 30% of all downstream Internet traffic - is further evidence of the popularity of the company's streaming service, and also a preview of the significant structural changes that lie ahead in the over-the-top (OTT), broadband ISP, and pay-TV industries. Specifically, as Netflix and other OTT providers' surging traffic compels broadband ISPs to administer strict bandwidth usage caps and adopt usage based pricing ("UBP"), the stage will be set for a new era in how tens of millions of consumers decide which in-home entertainment services they subscribe to. If you thought that would be very bad news for cable operators specifically, it might be time to think again.
Cable operators and programming networks are the focal point of upcoming change. Operators in particular, because they are both the largest providers of both subscription video services and broadband Internet services, are really at center stage. Much of the hype around "cord-cutting" over the last year has implied they are on the losing end of this potential activity. Often overlooked however, is the fact that as consumption shifts to OTT sources, consumers' bandwidth needs escalate. As such, the door opens for them to institute UBP, as AT&T has recently done.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Netflix
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Netflix Inks Miramax Deal; Streaming Movies Still Plenty Important
Netflix is announcing a new multi-year deal with independent film studio Miramax, giving it streaming access to hundreds of films in the U.S., including Best Picture winners "The English Patient" and "Shakespeare in Love" plus others
like "Good Will Hunting," "Pulp Fiction," "Kill Bill," "The Piano," etc. In all, the films coming to Netflix have gained 284 Oscar nominations and won 68 times. Miramax was recently spun-off from Disney, and this is the first time the films have become available in any digital subscription service.
The deal is another significant win for Netflix and underscores the point that movies are still plenty important to the company's streaming content strategy, despite the fact that most of its recent content acquisitions have been catalog TV programs. The challenge with acquiring streaming film rights is that "windowing" (i.e. the process by which a film passes through predetermined distribution outlets - theatrical, VOD, DVD, online sell-through, etc.) is still quite strictly enforced by studios, making it challenging for Netflix to accelerate its acquisition efforts.
Categories: Aggregators, FIlms, Studios
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Pay-TV Industry Ekes Out Q1 Gain. Netflix Softens Its Tone. What's It All Mean?
Trying to get one's head around the true competitive dynamic between pay-TV operators and new "over-the-top" entrants is surely one of the most vexing exercises video industry executives face these days. The media's coverage only exacerbates things: when the pay-TV industry contracts for a quarter, the headlines imply cord-cutting is sweeping the nation, then when the pay-TV industry reverses and makes a small gain, the headlines suggest all is fine again in pay-TV land, and that Netflix is just a nice little complimentary service.
So it was again this week, as industry analysts released their Q1 pay-TV subscriber estimates showing that pay-TV operators as a whole eked out an increase of around 450K-500K subscribers. While that was a better showing than the past 2-3 quarters when the industry shed subscribers, it was also slightly worse than Q1 '10. Regardless, the first quarter is a seasonally-strong quarter for pay-TV, and so the gains must be tempered by what follows in subsequent quarters. The good news is that the economy is improving which can only help budget-minded households better afford expensive pay-TV services.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: Netflix
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HBO GO Launches on iOS and Android Devices: A Necessary But Insufficient Step
Today marks the "official" launch of HBO GO - the premium cable network's authenticated TV Everywhere service - on mobile devices running iOS (iPad, iPhone, iPod) and the Android OS, although it has been technically available since late last week in the iTunes App Store and Android Market. HBO signaled May 2nd as the date of availability in a teaser video posted last month on YouTube, and I'm guessing a press release will be forthcoming.
With the iOS/Android rollout, HBO has taken a necessary, but insufficient step toward improving its standing in a world that has grown dramatically more competitive in a very short time. HBO GO, which is only available to HBO subscribers, and even then, only to those whose pay-TV operator has a deal to authenticate HBO GO, is narrowly focused on delivering more value to those who have already chosen to subscribe to HBO. As HBO co-president Eric Kessler told the NY Times in February, "It's about enhancing the satisfaction and continuing the life cycle of the subscriber."
Categories: Cable Networks, Devices
Topics: Android, HBO, iOS, Netflix
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1. Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes Flip-Flops, Now Admires Netflix
Certainly top on this week's unexpected list was Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes' newfound affection for Netflix, expressed in an interview with Charlie Rose at the Tribeca Film Festival (see below video, starting at the 4:40 point). Until now Bewkes has been withering in his derision for Netflix, famously comparing them to the Albanian army, and all but saying HBO would only offer its programs for streaming on Netflix when hell froze over.
But this week Bewkes totally flip-flopped, saying things like he looks at Netflix with a certain sense of "fondness," "Welcome brother" to the subscription business, "You've gotta admire them," "They've done a bold thing, a good thing in many ways," "They're offering a subscription service that is very valid and effective" and "They've got a lot of interesting stuff on there mostly that's available in other places but that's no criticism."
Categories: Aggregators, Cable Networks
Topics: HBO, Netflix, Time Warner
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2. Netflix Tamps Down Cord-Cutting Fears
Another unexpected item this week was Netflix dedicating a section of their Q1 '11 report to tamping down fears of cord-cutting that have been aroused due to Netflix's own staggering growth. To my knowledge, Netflix has never suggested in the past that it would prompt cord-cutting, but it has periodically positioned itself as a competitor to pay-TV services. Now however, Netflix is firmly embracing a "we're supplemental to pay-TV" positioning.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #97 - Apr. 29, 2011
I'm pleased to present the 97th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for April 29, 2011.
In this week's podcast, Daisy Whitney and I discuss Netflix's robust Q1 '11 results announced earlier this week. Netflix added 3.6 million subscribers in Q1, which is almost double the 1.7 million subscribers it added a year earlier in Q1 '10. Of the total, 3.3 million were in the U.S. bringing Netflix to a virtual tie with Comcast at 22.8 million subscribers (though as I always note, Comcast generates at least 5-6 times as much revenue per video subscriber as does Netflix). Still, with the Q1 growth, Netflix has grown by over 12 million subscribers in the past 6 quarters, an amazing stretch by any measure.
In the podcast we also discuss the more conciliatory tone Netflix struck toward the pay-TV industry, with CEO Reed Hastings going out of his way to tamp down concerns about imminent cord-cutting. We also comment on how Netflix appears to be adopting Apple's approach to under-promising and over-delivering quarterly results.
Click here to listen to the podcast (12 minutes, 53 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Aggregators, Podcasts
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Netflix Now In Virtual Tie With Comcast as Largest U.S. Video Subscription Service
Netflix just reported its Q1 '11 results, gaining 3.3 million subscribers in the U.S. to end the quarter with 22.8 million U.S. subscribers, in a virtual tie with Comcast as the largest U.S. video subscription service as measured by total subscribers. The 22.8 million total met the top end of its guidance range.
As I previously noted, Netflix ended 2010 with just over 20 million subscribers, but that amount included just over 500K internationalsubscribers (in Canada) which Netflix has now broken out for the first time. In the quarter Netflix also added 290K international subscribers to end the quarter at 800K subscribers. In total, Netflix now has 23.6 million subscribers. On another encouraging note, trial subscribers in Q1 '11 fell to 1.392 million, vs. 1.566 million at the end of 2010, accounting for 6.1% of ending subscribers, down from 8%.
Categories: Aggregators
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Netflix is Likely to Become the Largest U.S. Video Subscription Service When It Reports Q1 '11 Today
Netflix is likely to become the largest U.S. video subscription service - as measured by total subscribers - when it reports its Q1 '11 results at 4:05pm ET today. The milestone would be the latest evidence of Netflix's rapid accent as a major force in online distribution of Hollywood films and TV programs, as well as a central player in the unfolding battle for the digital living room.
Netflix ended 2010 with just over 20 million subscribers, and provided Q1 domestic ending subscriber guidance of between 21.9 million and 22.8 million subscribers. If Netflix slightly beats the high end of its guidance range it will eclipse Comcast, currently the largest video service provider, which ended 2010 with 22.802 million video subscribers.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Amazon, Comcast, Netflix
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New Netflix Deals Show How Little "Dexter" and "Californication" Really Matter
A couple of weeks ago, in "Showtime Circles Its Wagons, But to What End?" I questioned Showtime's decision to withdraw from Netflix streaming rights toearly seasons of 2 of its hit shows, "Dexter" and "Californication." One of the points I made was that Netflix would survive this loss just fine because they have enough streaming content already, and more coming all the time.
Sure enough, Netflix has more than proved my point, announcing a deal last Friday with 20th Century Fox that gives it streaming rights to the first season of the Fox hit "Glee," the first 2 seasons of the FX favorite, "Sons of Anarchy" and the library of "Ally McBeal" and "The Wonder Years." Then this past Wednesday, Netflix announced a deal with Lionsgate for streaming rights to the first 4 seasons of AMC's signature series "Mad Men," with 3 more seasons to follow after their on-air run (Netflix already had the Canadian streaming rights to the show).
Categories: Aggregators, Cable Networks, Studios
Topics: 20th Century Fox, Lionsgate, Netflix
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YouTube Pursuing "Strategic Catalyst" Role for Industry
An article in the WSJ yesterday reported that YouTube may be planning to spend up to $100 million to commission low-cost web-only content as part of
a reorganization of the site into 20 "channels." While the article was short on details and YouTube wouldn't confirm anything, the initiative feels consistent with the "strategic catalyst" role I characterized YouTube as playing in the online video industry last month, following its acquisition of Next New Networks.
Categories: Aggregators, Indie Video
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And Now, Back to Our Regularly Scheduled Programming
Thanks for all the comments, emails, tweets, calls and other feedback on my little April Fool's Day "exclusive," that Netflix planned to acquire HBO, dissolve its channels and add HBO's programs to its iPad app. As with my prior April Fool's Day posts, it was a lot of fun to write, and even more fun to receive the range of reactions (yes, if you still thought it was true by the end, you were not alone!)
As with all April Fool's Day attempts that seem to work, the key is making the joke just believable enough to elicit the tension of "Wow!" vs. "No Way!" Of course April Fool's Day has become open season on the Internet, meaning that for many, the new standing policy on April 1st is to not believe ANYTHING they read.
While that raises the bar for me, the good news is that in the online video and pay-TV worlds, things have gotten so tumultuous that what was unthinkable yesterday somehow becomes reality today. Thus quite a few people's reaction to today's "exclusive" was that it was not only plausible, but actually expected. The idea that Netflix could acquire HBO still feels like an awfully big stretch to me, but who knows - someday it could happen.
Regardless, on Monday, VideoNuze will be back to its serious-minded coverage of the industry. Enjoy the weekend!
Categories: Miscellaneous
Topics: Apple, HBO, iPad, Netflix
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EXCLUSIVE: Netflix to Acquire HBO, Dissolve Channels Into Streaming Library for iPad Use Only
VideoNuze has learned that Netflix has struck a deal to acquire HBO from Time Warner and intends to dissolve HBO's linear cable channels, with its programs to be incorporated into Netflix's streaming library, available solely on the iPad. Terms of the deal are not yet known, but it is expected to be for stock only, with Time Warner becoming the biggest shareholder in Netflix. VideoNuze interviewed all the key participants late last night.
The deal is a stunning move for all parties, and reflects the fast-changing nature of the online video and pay-TV industries. First and foremost, the deal appears to be a stark reversal of opinion by Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkeswho has consistently diminished Netflix's prospects. Bewkes commented, "My informal recent remarks, comparing Netflix's rise to the Albanian army's chances of taking over the world got me thinking afterwards, geez, is it possible that I've underestimated Albania's might, and therefore Netflix's potential? So I decided to study up on my history, and it turns out that back in 1378, Albania actually conquered almost three-quarters of the world's population. That was an eye-opener and really made me second-guess myself."
Categories: Cable Networks, Deals & Financings
Topics: Apple, HBO, iPad, Netflix
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Former Blockbuster CEO and Investor Square Off Over Company's Failure
Coincidentally, as I was writing "Could HBO be the Next Blockbuster?" an essay appeared in Harvard Business Review this week by former Blockbuster CEO John Antioco describing his experience at the company and interactions with activist investor Carl Icahn. After the essay Icahn responds, to which Antioco then responds. It's a fascinating exchange.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Blockbuster, Netflix
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Ohio University Clamps Down on Students' Netflix Use
How popular is Netflix among college students? Apparently so much that Ohio University, a 32,000 student campus, this week imposed a bandwidth cap on its students of a puny 5 MB when it found that 60% of its bandwidth was beingused for entertainment purposes, 28% of which was for Netflix (I think that means that 17% of bandwidth was being used for Netflx). The situation had gotten so bad that students and faculty weren't able to access the web-based curriculum management system. Much as I'm a fan of Netflix streaming, it's good to see OU trying to get its students back to hitting the books. Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs
Topics: Netflix, Ohio University
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #93 - Mar. 25, 2011
I'm pleased to present the 93rd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for March 25, 2011.
In this week's podcast, Daisy Whitney and I discuss my post from earlier this week, "Could HBO be the Next BLOCKBUSTER." In it I provide a perspective on the challenges that HBO faces adapting to the new competitive landscape. The post has received wide distribution this week including being featured on the home page of the WSJ's AllThingsD technology web site and elsewhere.
For those further interested in the topic, I fleshed out some of the issues in a follow-on post, "Showtime Circles the Wagons, But to What End?" in which I discussed Showtime's decision to pull streaming rights to certain shows from Netflix. This week Starz also delayed the release windows of some of its shows as well. Quite a busy week for premium cable networks.
Click here to listen to the podcast (15 minutes, 42 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Cable Networks, Podcasts
Topics: HBO, Netflix, Showtime
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Showtime Circles Its Wagons, But to What End?
Showtime's new decision to re-negotiate its deal with Netflix, excluding streaming rights to early seasons of current hit shows "Dexter" and "Californication," is a clear attempt by the company to circle its wagons against Netflix's newfound strength. The move effectively short-circuits Showtime's existing efforts to work with Netflix as a key promotional partner. By giving Netflix streaming rights to older episodes, the goal has been to expose a portion of its subscribers to Showtime programs, which would in turn help drive new Showtime subscriptions. (Note: Coincidentally, I happened to have just watched the entire first season of Dexter on Netflix, though I haven't chosen to subscribe to Showtime. More on that in a subsequent post).
With its decision, Showtime has doubled down on its relationship with its pay-TV partners. Maybe I'm missing something important, but from my perspective, the new decision seems grossly out of step with current market realities and it will only lead Showtime toward an even more uncertain future.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable Networks
Topics: HBO, Netflix, Showtime
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