Posts for 'FIlms'

I've become a bigger fan of Flixster since downloading its Android app a couple of weeks ago to my new Droid X. It offers basically everything you need to know about movies already released and those upcoming. So I welcomed the news late yesterday that Flixster had launched a free channel to watch movie trailers on Roku.

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Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 52nd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for March 5, 2010.

First up this week I discuss my post from this past Monday, "ABC.com is Now Achieving 'DVR Economics' for Its Programs," in which I described how ABC is now generating roughly the same revenue per program per viewer in online as it is when its programs are watched in DVR playback mode. Albert Cheng, EVP of Digital Media at Disney-ABC had explained to me last week that ABC recently concluded that since online and DVR are both "catch-up" opportunities, it was more appropriate to compare them to each other than to on-air.

Key to this logic is that ABC maintains a release window for its programs, with them being posted on the site 4-6 hours after broadcast. As a result, people who really want to see the program when it's first available still watch on-air (and may in fact re-watch online or via DVR). As long as there's an audience for broadcast, and online doesn't cannibalize it, the logic makes sense to me. Albert also explained that there's further upside in online through increasing the ad load, which is something ABC has experimented with.

Daisy picks up on that point, noting that CBS's Anthony Soohoo told her in an interview for Beet.tv that CBS is considering moving to a full ad load online because the online and on-air experience are converging, which suggests to them that viewers would tolerate more ads. We dig into the interplay between online and DVR usage, which I think is increasingly going to be a key focus for networks in how they choose to monetize online viewing.

Wrapping up, we review what some of the social media "listening" sites that are tracking the Oscar predictions are saying. Daisy appears officially addicted to following the online chatter.

Click here to listen to the podcast (14 minutes, 41 seconds)

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The brinksmanship between Disney and the 3 largest U.K. theater chains over whether they would show Tim Burton's new "Alice in Wonderland" film is officially done, with all 3 chains now signed on. As I described last week in "In Trying to Preserve DVD Sales, Studios Are in a Tight Spot," in a bid to boost DVD sales, Disney was looking to trim the DVD release of "Alice" to just 12 1/2 weeks after its opening, from the customary 16 1/2. British and other European theaters revolted, angry that the move would diminish their box-office take, a particular hot-button in light of significant investments they've recently made in digital technologies.

Specific details of the Disney-U.K. deals aren't known, but as the Guardian reported, it appears that Disney has agreed to cap the number of movies that will get earlier-than-usual DVD releases and provided some improved financial terms. Despite the U.K. resolution, some other European chains are still holding out, as is the AMC chain in the U.S. Regardless of the final outcome of the "Alice" situation, early DVD releases are going to remain a priority for Hollywood studios who are desperate to stanch the fall-off in DVD sales brought about by the recession and the shift by consumers to rental, subscription and online viewing options. There are many more chapters to be written in this saga.

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Yesterday's announcement by retailing giant Wal-Mart that it was acquiring Vudu, the on-demand movie service, generated a flurry of reactions from industry commentators. Some think it gives Wal-Mart the juice it needs to finally be a major digital media player. Others believe that Wal-Mart's miserable record in digital media suggests that the deal will be much ado about nothing. I'm in the latter camp, but not because of Wal-Mart's track record, but rather because of Vudu's own shortcomings.

Vudu's problem is that its value proposition is hamstrung by both the deals the Hollywood studios insist on to give Vudu access to their titles and by the current state of technology. Each of Vudu's 2 movie delivery models - rental and download-to-own - has its own problems that severely curtail its consumer appeal. No matter how slick the service looks or how many CE devices it's embedded in, consumers will readily see these drawbacks and resist embracing Vudu.

The rental model is primarily handicapped by the ongoing provision that the rental period "expires" 24 hours after the movie was started. That means that if real life (e.g. a crying child, a call from an old friend, a household emergency) interrupts the Vudu's users' planned viewing window, they're out of luck. It's an absurd restriction, but all online movie rentals are laboring under it. Then there's the provision that most new releases aren't available for rental until 30 days after they debut on DVD. This kind of delay doesn't mean as much for a subscription service like Netflix (which of course just agreed to a new 28-day "DVD sales window" with Warner Bros.), because it has a huge back catalog to offer. But for Vudu (and Redbox) these delays are very noticeable to users.

The download-to-own model is even more challenged. First off, tech-savvy and value-conscious consumers are increasingly focused on cost-effective rentals or subscriptions, not purchasing films. The demise of DVD sales is ample evidence of this. The idea of creating a movie "collection" in a fully on-demand world is already on the verge of seeming as archaic as creating a CD collection has been for a while. And with download-to-own prices of approximately $20, which are more than a DVD costs, consumers will be even more hesitant.

But the real killer for download-to-own is the technology limitations, more specifically the lack of portability and interoperability. Say you're actually inclined to own movies using Vudu. What do you do, download them to an external hard drive? And when you travel, do you lug that thing around with you? When you get to your destination, what device will actually let you play back your movie from your hard drive? The issues go on. The reality is that ubiquitous, cheap DVD players and the compact size of the discs themselves have created a very high bar for digital delivery to exceed. "Digital locker" concepts like DECE and Disney's KeyChest are desperately needed to move digital downloads along, but even they are just a part of a larger CE puzzle.

So, although the Vudu service is very impressive, with a slick user experience and really nice quality video, the reality is that unless Wal-Mart is able to break through these challenges, the Vudu service is going to be marginally attractive to consumers at best. That means the Wal-Mart acquisition, in fact, makes little difference.

Maybe Wal-Mart has the clout to move the studios, but given mighty Apple's own difficulties doing so, I'm skeptical that Wal-Mart will have better luck. I continue to believe that Netflix's model - which combines the full selection of DVDs with the convenience and growing selection of online delivery (including TV shows by the way) - is a far better approach. Netflix may not have all the HD and user interface bells and whistles that Vudu has, but it's a far better value proposition for consumers. This is partly why Netflix has doubled in size, to 12.3 million subscribers, in the last 3 years.

What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).

Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 50th (woohoo!) edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for February 19, 2010.

This week Daisy first walks us through a piece she's writing for AdAge focused on viral video. In reviewing data on which videos have broken out online, Daisy concludes that invariably they are also supported by related advertising. In other words, viral video isn't accidental any more (if it ever was) - now it must be stoked by paid support. An example Daisy provides is for Evian's "Live Young" babies ad which has been seen online 76 million times. Evian initially promoted the ad with YouTube takeover ads. Daisy also discusses the online performance of Super Bowl ads based on Visible Measures' new Trends application, which shows a big disparity between ads that were viewed heavily online vs. rated highly when seen on TV.

Then we discuss my post, "In Trying to Preserve DVD Sales, Studios are in a Tight Spot," in which I described the lengths to which Hollywood studios are going to squeeze out the last remaining profits from DVD sales. As I explain, while the recession has had a dampening effect on DVD sales, the larger problem is that rather than buying them, increasingly consumers are expecting films to be available for rental or subscription or even for free, with ad support. A number of moves from Disney, Sony and Warner Bros. in the last week underscore the consequences studios face as they try to shore up DVD sales.

Click here to listen to the podcast (14 minutes, 8 seconds)

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The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!

It's not news that DVD sales - the lifeblood of Hollywood studios' P&Ls - are in a freefall. In response, the studios are doing all sorts of things to eke out just a little more profitability from the sales of the shiny discs. But as several news items over the last week underscore, the studios have little wiggle room before their efforts to shore up DVD sales have real or perceived consequences for key business partners.

Exhibit A is the brouhaha over Disney's new plan to release Johnny Depp's "Alice in Wonderland" on DVD 12 1/2 weeks after its theatrical opening, instead of the usual 16 1/2 weeks, regardless of whether it's still playing in theaters. In the past, when a film's "release windows" were distinct and well-separated, everyone in the distribution chain knew they'd have their separate bite of the apple. With collapsing windows, those bites are converging, leaving some feeling they're not going to get their fair share. In the U.S. there has mostly been just grousing about Disney's plan among theater owners, but in Europe there are threats by large theater chains of an all-out boycott of the film.

It's hard not to feel some sympathy for the theater owners as the "Alice" plan isn't a random event. Sony recently ran a misguided promotional campaign giving away "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs" DVDs to certain Bravia buyers while the film was still playing in theaters. And it attempted to accelerate the release of the Michael Jackson "This Is It" DVD until theater owners drew the line. No doubt there are plenty of other examples being floated privately in Hollywood.

Meanwhile, news also broke this week that Redbox, the $1 a day rental kiosk chain had acceded to Warner Bros.' demand that it not rent any films until 28 days after their DVD release, in order to help preserve initial sales. As part of the deal Warner dropped its lawsuit against Redbox. In return, Redbox got lower pricing on its Warner DVD purchases. The deal mirrors the 28-day deal Netflix did with Warner last month, which I thought was a win for everyone. But the key difference in that deal vs. Redbox's is that Netflix has a huge rental catalog available for its subscribers to choose from, meaning new releases are far less important (Netflix says only 23% of rental requests are for new releases). On the other hand, Redbox's whole value proposition rests on low prices and selection of new releases. What is Redbox's fate if it does similar deals with other studios?

Putting the squeeze on Redbox and its kiosks seems like a dubious strategy by studios. In an age where piracy looms large, studios should be focused on enhancing, not diminishing the accessibility of their product (as a Coke executive once famously explained the company's marketing goal: "always within an arm's length of desire"). While Hollywood doesn't like Redbox's lower margins, focusing on that issue excessively when the product is clearly in decline is missing the forest for the trees.

Studios' desire to preserve DVD sales is going to further intensify, but defending them is only going to get harder. Certainly part of the reason is that the ongoing recession is forcing many consumers to cut back on their discretionary purchases. But the larger issue is that there's huge momentum behind the shift to online subscription/rental and even free models. The data shows that online viewing hit an inflection point in 2009, with free premium sites like Hulu experiencing extraordinary growth.

And the data showing online's appeal pours in almost daily; yesterday it was The Diffusion Group reporting results of a study of Netflix users showing that two-thirds of them that have a broadband connection are now using the "Watch Instantly" streaming feature. This week's launch of HBO Go, the premium channel's site for its subscribers, and its distribution deal with Verizon, are evidence that even the mighty HBO can't resist online's allure. Last but not least, in 2010 TV Everywhere rollouts will gain steam.

There's no denying the truth that DVD sales are under assault from all sides. Studios, desperate to hold on to DVDs' precious profits, are increasingly contorting themselves to keep the DVD cash cow alive a little longer. No surprise though, their efforts are not without consequences. At what point do the studios capitulate and throw DVD sales under the bus? We'll have to wait and see.

What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).

Visible Measures, the third-party measurement firm for online video, is taking the wraps off its new "Trends" web-based application this morning. I've been playing around with it for the last couple of days with a courtesy login and not only does it pack a ton of value, it's also really addictive.

Trends offers access to videos in 3 different data sets, or "collections": Social Video (currently 165 online ad campaigns that have gone viral), Film Trailers (currently 115, and growing by 3-4 per week), and all the recent 2010 Super Bowl ads. The results table for a query displays the campaign's thumbnail image and its name, along with its views or "reach" based on Visible Measures' "True Reach" data (either incremental or cumulative) plus the number of comments, ratings and points of distribution. The table also displays each ad's industry categorization, ad agency, brand name and type of creative type (humor, contest, product demo, etc.). Viewing any particular ad is also just one click away.

Users can take advantage of Trends in any number of ways, depending on their particular interest. As one example, I started by choosing the Social Video collection and "Cumulative Reach" for the current time period. I was interested to see just campaigns for beverages, so I chose that category, but allowed all agencies, brands and creative types to be displayed. In an instant I was presented with a table of 20 results on 2 pages, starting with Evian's hilarious "Live Young" campaign featuring the dancing babies that has garnered almost 74 million views to date. After looking it over, I also reviewed the other campaigns in the top 5, from Pepsi, AMP and Anheuser-Busch. Click on the image below if you'd like to see a 4 minute video demo.

In the social and online video-dominated world we now live in, Trends data is invaluable for brand advertisers and their agencies. It allows them to customize their views of the database, compare different campaigns and analyze what worked online and what didn't. Online distribution is now a key part of calculating the ROI on a campaign, so being able to benchmark the performance of past campaigns provides insight not normally available in traditional TV advertising.

For example, say an agency is formulating a plan for its client's new shampoo - Trends lets its creative executives understand whether prior campaigns featuring product demos, humor or celebrities worked best online. A few quick queries will yield data that can be exported to create charts and graphs for everyone on the team to review. Of course past experience can perfectly predict the future, but Trends provides hard data that lets the creative discussion quickly move beyond gut instinct.

The Visible Measures team told me last week that they've been gradually exposing more and more of their data, through top 10 lists with media partners like AdAge, Variety, Mashable and Motor Trend. With Trends, the data is even more accessible. Visible Measure is also making a public beta of Trends available, though just for the Social Video collection. It's free and it's fun - I recommend giving it a try.

What do you think? Post a comment now (now sign-in required).

Note - Visible Measures is a VideoNuze sponsor.

This week brought news that YouTube's recent foray into rentals netted the company a whopping $10,709.16. I wasn't surprised by the results, as YouTube only made 5 Sundance films available for 10 days. As I suggested 2 weeks ago, even with YouTube's massive audience, it would be unreasonable to expect too much. Still, it was great promotion for the indie film producers and no doubt a learning experience for YouTube.

I'm not religiously opposed to YouTube broadening its model beyond free and ad-supported video, but I do think YouTube needs to be wary of spending a lot of time trying to secure me-too rights for distribution of Hollywood's prime TV and movie output. That's highly competitive ground, and Netflix for one, has enormous advantages given its robust subscription model. YouTube is in the pole position when it comes to the ad-supported online video model and it needs to be relentlessly focused on proving it can make the model profitable.

What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).

Last fall, when the WSJ first broke the news that YouTube was negotiating with a number of Hollywood studios about launching a full-blown rental store, I thought the plan was intriguing, but dubious. I argued that YouTube needed to stay focused on getting its ad model right, that it would be hard to differentiate its film rentals from those of myriad competitors and that the revenue upside for YouTube was relatively small.

I continue to believe those things and hope YouTube isn't still pursuing Hollywood dreams. That said, I do like the idea of it offering a paid option for indie and other hard-to-find video. YouTube's massive audience brings real promotional value to these often-obscure, yet high-quality titles, potentially significant revenue to their producers and for YouTube, another meaningful step away from pure UGC content. Rentals won't generate significant revenue for YouTube, but with Google executives on the company's earnings call yesterday saying that "YouTube is monetizing well," so long as it doesn't divert too many resources away from advertising, that's ok.

2. Revenue models matter, just ask the newspaper industry - This week brought news that MediaNews Group, publisher of 54 U.S. newspapers, including the Denver Post and San Jose Mercury News, will file for bankruptcy. For those keeping count, it's at least the 13th bankruptcy filing by a major U.S. newspaper publisher in the last year.

While the newspaper industry has been racked by the recession and ad-spending slowdown, the larger issue is that 15 years since the Internet's popularity took off, newspapers still have not been able to define a sustainable online business model. Many simply lunged headlong into providing their full print editions online, only to find out that online advertising wasn't sufficient to support their overhead and that Google commoditized their headlines. Others, like the NYTimes tried (and will continue to try) to find a balance between advertising and reader payments.

I've touched on this before, but the havoc being wreaked in the newspaper is a red-letter warning to video industry participants to cautiously guard existing revenue models while transitioning to digital delivery. Some consumers and techies may consider a deliberate pace to be bureaucratic foot-dragging, but for video content producers and distributors to remain viable, a deliberate ready-aim-fire approach to digital delivery is essential.

I'm not a Prada patron, and I found the film dreary and odd, nonetheless, what intrigued me was how online video has given Prada a whole new outlet to build its brand's aura, a key to success for all luxury brands. Buying TV ads would be incredibly inefficient for Prada, and magazine spreads only go so far. With a short online film, Prada can target its audience well and engage them as long as it pleases. For creative and advertising types alike, that's a compelling opportunity.

4. Get ready for the week of the Apple tablet - In case you missed it, this week Apple sent invites to the press for a Jan. 27th event to "come see our latest creation" - widely believed to be the company's new tablet computer. The buzz behind the product, thought to be called the "iSlate," has been steadily building for weeks now. Next week it will reach a crescendo. We can expect Steve Jobs to bring his A game to the mother of all product demos as the stakes are high for Apple to deliver major wows.

Amid all of the attention Netflix has been receiving for embedding its streaming software in one consumer electronics device after another (the Wii just yesterday) and its recent Warner Bros. deal, it's been easy to overlook the fact that Blockbuster has been getting some online traction itself. One announcement at CES last week, by ActiveVideo Networks, caught my attention as it has the potential to leapfrog Blockbuster On Demand's user experience past Netflix's Watch Instantly.

Much as I'm a big fan of Netflix's Watch Instantly streaming feature, one of its limitations is that the user experience is very segregated between computer and TV. You browse and search online for titles - just as you would for DVDs - and then when you've made your choices, they show up in your Instant Queue online and on your connected TV (via Roku, Blu-ray, Xbox or other device). While it's a perfectly functional approach, wouldn't it be nice if you could do the entire process of search, discovery, previewing, selection and viewing on the TV itself?

That's the experience that ActiveVideo Networks' CloudTV will be helping Blockbuster on Demand deliver to its users. As ActiveVideo's CEO Jeff Miller explained to me yesterday, when deployed, the Blockbuster on Demand app (developed using ActiveVideo's JavaScript/HTML authoring kit), will give Blockbuster's users a web-like experience of search, discovery and previewing on their TVs, via connected devices. In addition, it will present viewing options - streaming, download-to-own and in-store rental (via an API it will even show current availability in selected stores).

The requirements are that ActiveVideo's thin client has been integrated with the device, and that Blockbuster has its own deal with to distribute through the specific device manufacturer. Navigation is via the remote control using an on-screen keypad (see example screen shots below from last week's CES demos).

Similarly, ActiveVideo is also focused both on CE (currently through a partnership with middleware provider Videon Central) and on cable. It has deployed on set-top boxes with Cablevision and Oceanic Time Warner Cable in Hawaii, reaching an audience of 5 million homes. Content providers that have developed apps include Showtime, HSN and Fox, among others. No doubt ActiveVideo and Blockbuster will synch up their biz dev activities to proliferate the Blockbuster on Demand app as widely as possible.

I have to admit that I haven't been paying too much attention to Blockbuster, as it has worked to re-position itself, aiming to close another 1,000 stores by the end of the year and installing more kiosks to compete with Redbox. Of course, it can ill afford to allow Netflix to get too far out in front of it in digital delivery as DVD rentals are poised to be supplanted by streaming down the road.

But Blockbuster has an ubiquitous, if somewhat dated, brand that could be skillfully leveraged into the digital era, provided it has the right services in its arsenal. In this respect, the potential to bring a converged user experience between online and connected TVs is a meaningful differentiator. No initial joint customers have yet been announced by Blockbuster and ActiveVideo, though I expect that soon. And, as online video and TV continue to converge, ActiveVideo is likely to find itself in the middle of a lot of action. All of this is worth keeping an eye on.

(Note - ActiveVideo Networks is a VideoNuze sponsor)

The 2010 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is now behind us. There were tons of announcements to come out of this year's show, including many in the online and mobile video areas. Increasingly a core focus of new devices is how to playback online and mobile-delivered video, how to move it around the consumer's house and how to make it portable. Following is a filtered list of the product announcements (or pertinent media coverage if no release was available) that I found noteworthy. They are listed in no particular order and I'm sure I've missed some important ones - if so, please add a comment with the relevant link.

DISH Network Partners with NeuLion to Distribute Live International TV Channels Through IPTV Platform

Boxee box internals revealed. NVIDIA Tegra 2 FTW

Netgear Collaborates with Intel to Launch TV Adapter for Intel Wireless Display, an Intuitive and Easy Way to View Entire Laptop Screen on HDTV Wirelessly

Syabas Announces Popbox for Big Screen Everything

Sling Media Announces Support for Adobe Flash Platform in Hardware and Software Products

LG Electronics Expands Access to Content-on-Demand with New High-Performance Blu-ray Disc Players

ESPN 3D to show soccer, football, more

Discovery Communications, Sony and IMAX Announce Plan to Launch First 24/7 Dedicated 3D Television Network in the U.S.

TV Makers ready to test depths of market for 3D

DirecTV is the First TV Provider to Launch 3D

DISH Network Introduces TV Everywhere

Microsoft Unites Software and Cloud Services to Power New TV Experiences

FLO TV and mophie to Bring Live Mobile TV to the Apple iPhone and iPod Touch

Broadcom Drives the Transition to Connected Consumer Electronics at 2010 International CES

New NVIDIA Tegra Processor Powers the Tablet Revolution

Digital Entertainment Content Ecosystem (DECE) Announces Key Milestones

Disney offers KeyChest, but where is the KeyMaster?

DivX Launches New Internet TV Platform to Redefine the Future of Entertainment

Cisco Eos Social Entertainment Platform Expands Footprint with New Customers, Feature; Introduces Partner Ecosystem

Blockbuster, ActiveVideo Announce Agreement for Cloud-based Online Navigation

Brightcove Expands Online Video Distribution to Millions of Internet-Connected Televisions with Yahoo TV Widgets

Skype Ushers in New Era in Face-to-Face Online Video Communication

Rovi Grows Content Providers List to Include More Movies and TV Shows in its Next-Generation Media Guide