Podcasts

I’m pleased to present the 394th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Pay-TV operators are likely to have lost around a million video subscribers in Q3, while skinny bundles (or virtual MVPDs as Colin likes to call them) may have gained around 900K. In this week’s podcast Colin and I talk about these dynamics and what kinds of consumer behaviors are driving these changes.

For the skinny bundles, a big part of the growth is AT&T’s deep discounting of DirecTV Now to support its wireless service. Among others, YouTube TV, with its widespread broadcast coverage and major World Series promotion, is also poised to grow strongly.

But how much of skinny bundles’ gain is coming at pay-TV’s loss is still murky. No doubt some people are swapping, but I question how much they’re actually saving per month, and whether churn will ultimately be high as they realize certain networks aren’t included. Conversely, Colin sees these as “good enough” solutions when combined with SVOD services.

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I’m pleased to present the 393rd edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

It’s been a big week for executive changes in the SVOD world. Hulu’s CEO Mike Hopkins is departing to become chairman of Sony Pictures Television. Randy Freer, president and COO of Fox Networks will take over as Hulu’s new CEO. Colin and I both think Hopkins accomplished a lot in his four years at Hulu and we review the company’s progress. Still, the SVOD space is more competitive than ever and Hulu has a range of challenges ahead of it.

Speaking of executive changes, Amazon Studios is undergoing a brain drain, with its head Roy Price leaving due to sexual harassment charges followed by 3 other senior executives. Amazon Studios was already under pressure to create blockbuster programming and these management changes would seem to only increase the pressure. We dig into what’s happening at Amazon.

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I’m pleased to present the 392nd edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Netflix reported another strong quarter earlier this week, adding 5.3 million subscribers, and also forecasting an increase in its content spend in 2018 to $7-8 billion. On today’s podcast we discuss the results and what’s ahead.

Despite Netflix’s successful quarter, Colin and I both observed some ambiguity on the part of its executives in explaining what actually drove the subscriber additions. Overall industry momentum, original content, or both? It’s not clear.

What is clear however is that with Netflix now up to 109 million global subscribers, we’ve moved into a phase where there’s Netflix and there’s everyone else. No other company has close to Netflix’s global footprint or content budget. To put the content budget alone in context, in 2018 it will likely be 3-4x of what mighty HBO spends. Size clearly has its advantages.

Colin and I explore what this all means for the industry going forward.

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I’m pleased to present the 391st edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia (apologies in advance, my audio quality is low).

We cover 4 different items this week starting with the news that 4 major studios have joined with Disney’s cloud-based venture, now renamed “Movies Anywhere.” The move validates Disney’s prior decision not to join UltraViolet and presents an exciting consumer value proposition incorporating multiple online stores and spanning key devices.

Colin then shares highlights of new global research from Ericsson Consumer Labs. No surprise, the report showed a big shift in viewing from linear to on-demand and also much higher satisfaction scores for on demand video services vs. traditional TV.  The report comes just ahead of the Q3 earnings season which is likely to show an uptick in cord-cutting.

We then turn to a report from CNBC that Amazon is making moves in video advertising. Colin and I believe this would make a ton of sense from multiple perspectives.

Reminder that next Thursday, October 19th we’ll be hosting a webinar on streaming sports, hosted by Akamai. Join us!

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I’m pleased to present the 390th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

First up this week, we discuss the impact of the “Star Trek: Discovery” launch on CBS All Access. CBS has said that All Access daily subscriber growth is up 200% over last year since the show’s launch. As Colin notes though, it’s hard to draw conclusions yet about how sustainable the additions will be or whether churn will spike. More originals are clearly needed to broaden the service’s appeal.

We then turn to the surprising news this week that YouTube TV will be the presenting sponsor of the 2017 World Series. Colin and I agree it’s really a sign of the times when a skinny bundle has stepped up this way. However, since Fox, the network broadcasting the games, isn’t even available yet on YouTube TV in half the top 50 U.S. markets, the sponsorship carries risks. Colin also notes that given YouTube TV’s programming costs, it is likely losing money for each new subscriber.

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I’m pleased to present the 389th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

On today’s podcast, David Tice, SVP, Consulting at GfK, a global market research company, joins us to discuss factors Disney should be considering about how to price its OTT service that will launch in 2019.

David has researched for several years the maximum perceived value that subscribers of Netflix, Amazon and Hulu place on these services, finding that there’s a “natural limit” of around $11 per month per service. Value perceptions have increased a bit over the past 3 years but have stayed in a relatively tight range between approximately $8-$11 per month.

The research highlights the tight spot that Disney is in, because given the extensive content CEO Bob Iger has indicated will be included and the need to protect existing pay-TV relationships, the company will be very tempted to price higher than $11 per month, just as HBO Now has done. However, such a decision could significantly limit demand as occurred with HBO Now.

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I’m pleased to present the 388th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Colin was at the International Broadcasting Convention (IBC) in Amsterdam for much of the past week and on today’s podcast he shares some of his top observations. These include how TV networks are moving online, how blended subscription/ad-supported business models are being used, and the role of artificial intelligence, among others.

We then shift to review recent research I’ve written about (here and here) from Adobe, Limelight and Pew quantifying how younger viewers are embracing streaming services at the expense of pay-TV. Of course this isn’t a new trend, but it is clearly accelerating.

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I’m pleased to present the 387th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Earlier this week Apple introduced Apple TV 4K, but as Colin notes, it’s really a catch-up product, as Roku, for example has had this capability in its top of the line Ultra since last year. More important to Colin is that Apple’s decision to raise the price of the Apple TV 4K to $179 for the 32GB version means its $80 more than the Ultra and $120 more than the Roku Premiere, which also delivers 4K, but not HDR.

All of this has Colin wondering whether Apple’s strategy is really just to target its loyalists with the Apple TV 4K, rather than aggressively seeking market share, as Roku, Amazon and Google have all done with their devices. Widespread adoption has clear advantages as we discuss.

Staying with the connected TV theme, we then transition to other news this week that Comcast has added YouTube to its X1 set-top box as it continues its “aggregator of aggregators” strategy. I’ve given it a spin and share a quick review of how it adds value to the X1 experience.

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I’m pleased to present the 386th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

After taking a couple weeks off from the podcast, Colin and I are back, and today we discuss 4 different industry stories that have caught our attention. First up, just before Labor Day, Roku filed its S-1 IPO document, sharing financial details for the first time. Colin and I are both struck by the strength of Roku’s “platform revenues” and believe the company’s strategy of innovating with low-priced streaming devices to gain market share has opened up many revenue options (though Colin’s a bit worried about Roku losing its valuable neutrality position in the wake of launching the Roku Channel this week).

We then move on to T-Mobile’s plan to give away Netflix to its unlimited family plan subscribers. It’s the latest “video as bait” play by a wireless carrier, and we both see this trend accelerating. Another interesting bundle play this week was the $5/mo promotion from Hulu and Spotify. We discuss its potential to extend beyond the initial college student target.

Finally, Colin and I were both intrigued by a plan unveiled by Newsy, a popular millennial-focused news app, to create a linear TV channel by taking over Retirement Living TV’s pay-TV subscribers. It’s a relatively unusual move given most TV networks are launching OTT apps these days.

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I’m pleased to present the 385th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

On today’s podcast, Colin and I discuss the role of advertising and subscriptions for premium video. I wrote about this topic earlier this week, observing that video providers today are experimenting with all models to see what succeeds. The urgency to find the successor to the lucrative multichannel bundle approach is becoming more urgent as cord-cutting increases.

Colin and I both believe the picture is currently quite murky. We contrast the success Netflix, for example has had with ad-free viewing while subscribers to both CBS All Access and Hulu still appear to prefer to pay less and get a full ad load.

I think there’s real power in a brand’s original identity and it’s quite hard to transition from one model to another. Colin sees more upside from “freemium” approaches that introduce viewers to content with ads but then try to upsell them to subscriptions.

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I’m pleased to present the 384th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

On today’s podcast, Colin and I first discuss Q2 ’17 pay-TV video subscriber results. Skinny bundles played a big part in offsetting accelerating losses in traditional multichannel services. Will this continue and if so what are the implications?

We then dig into the DVD market’s decline which was further accelerated this week when Amazon decided to close down its LOVEFiLM DVD-by-mail business in several European countries. Colin notes that Netflix’s DVD business has had a huge drop-off also and he speculates whether it too might get cut loose. On the bright side, Redbox re-upped its deal with Lionsgate, showing that DVDs still have a bit of life left.

Finally, Apple was back in the news this week, reportedly allocating $1 billion for original TV shows. We speculate on whether this will be successful and what challenges Apple will face.

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I’m pleased to present the 383rd edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

On today’s podcast, Colin and I discuss how Disney’s blundered 2012 content deal with Netflix has now come home to roost. Even though Disney’s content was only activated on Netflix last year, this week Disney announced it won’t renew the Netflix deal and will instead launch its own entertainment-focused SVOD service - but not until it’s able to in 2019.

Colin and I agree that 2019 is a lifetime away given how fast the video world is moving. Importantly, the competitive environment for kids programming is already very crowded and will only intensify over the next 2 years as others’ investments accelerate. While Disney’s content is the gold standard, for many reasons we discuss, the company success in SVOD is far from assured.

Disney painting itself into a corner is a textbook example of the consequences of prioritizing short-term gains over long-term strategic flexibility. Though the original Netflix deal was done in 2012, its ramifications will reverberate for years to come.

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I’m pleased to present the 382nd edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

It’s been a little while since Colin and I last discussed CBS All Access, which now has approximately 1.5 million subscribers. But with the launch of “Star Trek: Discovery” coming on September 24th (first episode on-air, then exclusively on All Access), the timing is good to dig into its place in the market and the role of originals.

Interestingly, Colin and I have differing views on almost everything related to CBS All Access; he sees their progress to date as modest (whereas I’m more impressed), but he thinks Star Trek alone could boost subscribers all the way to the 4 million point, which is the 2020 goal (whereas I’m much more cautious), and he sees All Access as threatening to CBS’s local affiliates (whereas I think they’ve largely been brought under the tent).

Most of all, Colin believes Star Trek is a relatively risky move by the company, while I see it as taking a page from a playbook well-established by Netflix and others who have used originals to methodically build their businesses.

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I’m pleased to present the 381st edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

This week we discuss both Comcast’s and AT&T’s Q2 ’17 video subscriber results, which were dramatically different, and what we see as the implications.

First, Comcast, lost 34K residential video subs in Q2 ’17, as compared with losing just 4K in Q2 ’16.  Colin and I differ in our interpretation, with him more concerned that Comcast’s streak with X1 has likely run its course. I’m more sanguine because as I look more broadly, over the past 4 quarters, Comcast has managed to turn in exceptional performance in the face of massive cord-cutting headwinds.

By contrast, AT&T’s core video businesses - Uverse and DirecTV - have been hemorrhaging subscribers over the past year, and Q2 highlights how deeply discounted and bundled DirecTV Now is the only bright spot in video for AT&T.  But as I explain, the company’s willingness to all but give away its skinny bundle to preserve its wireless business has potentially profound long-term consequences for the entire pay-TV industry, with Amazon increasingly well-positioned to be a big winner.

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I’m pleased to present the 380th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

Earlier this week Netflix reported its Q2 ’17 results, with domestic and international subscriber additions exceeding even the most optimistic Wall St. forecasts. But as Colin and I discuss, it is extremely murky what actually drove the strong performance. In fact, Netflix’s Q2 ’17 varied dramatically from prior years, creating a roller-coaster feel that makes it almost impossible to predict where Netflix is heading next.

Highlighting the confusion is that Netflix management again emphasized the role of its original content in driving the Q2 numbers. Yet independent research just a couple months ago indicated that in Q1 ’17, 85% of Netflix’s U.S. streams were actually licensed content, despite the many billions the company has invested in originals. To top it off, Colin reports that he repeatedly hears industry friends say “there’s nothing on Netflix to watch.”

There’s no question Q2 reinvigorated the Netflix growth story. But what’s behind that story feels harder to understand than ever.

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I’m pleased to present the 379th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

On this week’s podcast Colin and I discuss recently released data from Nielsen, Parks Associates and Roku, which all underscore the growing momentum of connected TVs.

Colin’s analysis of Nielsen’s data shows that across all viewers, connected TV device viewing has increased from .4 hours per week in Q1 ’14 to 2 hours 30 minutes per week in Q1 ’17. Zeroing in specifically on users with connected TVs, the view time nearly quadruples.

The Parks data reinforces these trends, finding that 50% of U.S. broadband users are watching video on TV, using their connected TV devices (separate industry data has indicated over 70% of U.S. homes actually have at least one connected TV). The big 3 services (Netflix, Amazon and Hulu) continue to dominate, but Parks noted that certain niche SVOD services are gaining real traction.

Finally, Colin shares his analysis of Roku’s new data on times spent with the device. Roku’s numbers are noteworthy because they’re the only connected TV device that self-reports any usage data.

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I’m pleased to present the 378th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

First up this week, Colin shares reactions to a presentation he attended by Jennifer Dorian, GM of Turner Classic Movies and FilmStruck about how TCM is focusing on its core fans to build community and strengthen its brand. Colin was very impressed with the range of initiatives TCM is taking as examples of how a traditional cable TV network can deepen its relationships with viewers.  

We then transition to discuss AMC Premiere, the new $4.99 per month service recently launched by AMC and Comcast allowing ad-free viewing of current season programs. I really like the fact that the companies are experimenting with a new business model, but as I wrote, based on other similar services, I’m not super-confident that there is huge pent-up demand to pay extra to avoid ads, especially since the programming available is limited.

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I’m pleased to present the 377th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

This week we start by discussing NBC Sports’ new “Premier League Pass,” which I wrote about a couple days ago. Colin and I agree that Premier League Pass is a clever way for NBC Sports to provide access to cord-cutters and cord-nevers. Going forward, we both like the idea of an “Olympics Pass” as well. Combined with AMC Premiere, which Comcast and AMC announced yesterday, it’s clear established media companies are innovating to offer more flexible access to viewers.

Colin then shares his reactions to an interesting presentation by Chris Ripley, President and CEO of Sinclair Broadcast Group, on the company’s ATSC 3.0 vision. I’ll admit this is not a topic I’ve followed too closely, but as Colin explains, Sinclair sees ATSC 3.0 as an entirely new delivery infrastructure it can use to deliver all kinds of services. Important to keep in mind, all of this is still very long-term.

(Note, the audio quality is a bit low this week with Colin being out of office when we recorded)

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I’m pleased to present the 376th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

This week we start by discussing research Akamai released this week with Sensum, proving in how streaming video delivered in high quality results in improved satisfaction. Colin and I wrote about it here and here. It’s further evidence of how viewers’ expectations have been set by TV’s quality. Viewers clearly react to quality deficiencies.

Then we transition to talking about Apple and its hiring late last week of 2 producers who were formerly presidents of Sony Pictures Television. On Monday I wrote how this is a positive step, but still missing was any sense of Apple’s overall video strategy or business model. We debate what Apple might do, and also wonder about what private assurance may have been given to the producers to induce them to move to Apple.

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I’m pleased to present the 375th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

This week we’re excited to have Mike Lawlor, FreeWheel’s SVP of Client Services, join us to dig into the company’s Q1 ’17 Video Monetization Report, which it released on Wednesday at the VideoNuze Ad Summit.

First up, we talk about the meteoric growth in OTT devices, which when coupled with set-top box video, means nearly half of all ad views in premium video now occur on TVs. FreeWheel calls this the “new living room” and Mike describes the drivers of this growth and what it means for programmers and advertisers.

Overall, it was the 25th straight quarter of double digit percentage growth for online video, and we discuss whether this amazing streak will continue. We cover a lot of other ground, including what types of programming viewers are watching, what role programmatic is playing for premium video, the importance of improving the viewers’ ad experiences and much more.

FreeWheel’s VMR continues to be an incredibly valuable piece of research, helping industry analysts and executives better understand how disruption is playing out. The VMR is available as a complimentary download.

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