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Netflix CEO Hastings Defends Company's Lofty Stock Price in 2,000 Word Post
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings isn't being shy about his company's soaring valuation, posting a 2,000 word defense on the Seeking Alpha blog. The relatively unusual move comes in response to an earlier post by investor
Whitney Tilson explaining why the stock is due for a decline in 2011. The two men are friends and joint backers of charter schools. Hastings says somewhat tongue in cheek up front that his "desire is to increase (Tilson's) odds of making money next year so he can donate even more to the charter public schools that we both think are important to our country's future."
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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Hulu Pulls IPO Due to Lack of Long-Term Content Rights
The WSJ is reporting that Hulu has pulled its widely-rumored plan for an initial public offering next year due to lack of long-term rights to distribute its three broadcast TV network owners' content. The WSJ says the company may
look at other options to raise capital. Hulu's exclusive short-term distribution deals with owners ABC, FOX and NBC are the company's primary asset, and no doubt banks and other would-be investors closely scrutinized whether the rights would be extended.
As I wrote last April, from a content rights perspective, Hulu is getting squeezed from all sides. Pay-TV providers are ramping up their TV Everywhere rollouts and are trying to lock down online distribution rights themselves, sometimes as part of retransmission consent deals. The NBC rights in particular are subject to extra uncertainty longer-term as Comcast takes over the network. As the biggest subscription TV provider, which is rolling out its own online capabilities, Comcast has little incentive to support an online competitor.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: ABC, Comcast, FOX, Hulu, NBC, Netflix
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Sezmi Drops "Select Plus" Tier, Shifts Away From Digital Broadcast Delivery
Sezmi, the next-generation subscription TV provider, is discontinuing as of December 28th its "Select Plus" $19.95/mo tier of service which launched in the LA market last February, with distribution from Best Buy. Going forward, Sezmi will focus its U.S. efforts on enhancing its lower-end, $4.95/mo
"Select" tier. In addition, the company has decided to shift away from licensing digital spectrum from local broadcast stations for content delivery, and instead will use an all-broadband delivery model. Dave Allred, Sezmi's Chief Marketing Officer walked me through the changes.
Dave explained that Sezmi received positive feedback from its Select Plus subscribers in LA, but that the big challenge to rolling it out aggressively was securing the local broadcast bandwidth. Sezmi had actually signed broadcast deals to expand to 4-5 key markets, but the deals were expensive, and with the FCC's efforts to reclaim unused broadcast spectrum, Dave said negotiations had slowed as broadcasters became more cautious. Though Sezmi has always touted the multi-network delivery model, it needed to make a decision whether to stay the course, and follow a slow, market-by-market rollout, or just shift to broadband-only, which it did.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: SezMi
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Dec. 12th
Happy Friday. Once again I'm pleased to offer VideoNuze's end-of-week feature analyzing 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items from the week that we didn't have a chance to cover previously. This week I'm changing the format a little bit, creating an individual post for each item. I'm doing this in response to reader interest in being able to share individual items (not the whole group) more easily. Let me know what you think of the new format. Here they are:
1. Potential YouTube-Next New Networks deal is a bit of a head-scratcher
2. Here's a great example of why TV Everywhere matters so much to the pay-TV industry
3. Hulu's Kilar: "Hulu Plus now a material portion" of revenues
4. Google not ready to announce fiber winning communities
5. Tiffany shows online video works for luxury retailers
Read them now or check them out this weekend!Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Commerce, Deals & Financings, Indie Video, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: Google, Hulu Plus, Netflix, Next New Networks, Tiffany, YouTube
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Potential YouTube-Next New Networks Deal is a Bit of a Head-Scratcher
I'm still scratching my head a little over this week's report that YouTube may be looking to acquire independent video network/developer Next New Networks. An acquisition of Next New Networks would mean that YouTube would no longer be solely a platform for indie video, but a producer as well. So the first question is why, after so many assertions by Google executives that it is "not a media company" has it decided that in fact it now wants to be a media company? Does Google feel that indie content is underfunded and developing too slowly, hence the need to bring its massive resources to bear? Maybe so.
But data just this week from the company, disclosing its 2010 top videos viewed seems to suggest that indie creativity is bubbling along just fine. The top two videos were actually Next New productions, and the company blogged a must-read post about how it achieved this success. Maybe YouTube feels it can turbo-charge indie content, and this is strategic to help support its Google TV efforts since it's getting stiff-armed by major broadcasters. If the deal is done (and doesn't end up as another Groupon non-deal) it will be interesting to learn how Google/YouTube explains it.Categories: Aggregators, Deals & Financings, Indie Video
Topics: Google, Next New Networks, YouTube
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Hulu's Kilar: "Hulu Plus now a material portion" of Revenues
I was surprised to hear Hulu CEO Jason Kilar say in this short CNBC interview that while advertising accounts for the bulk of its revenues, Hulu Plus is "already accounting for a material portion" of its revenues. In the interview, Kilar had previously mentioned that in 2010 Hulu would generate $260 million in revenues, compared to $108 million in 2009, an impressive jump that beat its internal target of $190 million.
However, it's hard to see how, just a month after its formal launch, Hulu Plus could already be material to Hulu's performance. Even if it had 500,000 subscribers (which feels optimistic), that would be $4 million/mo (at its $8/mo rate) in subscription revenue, whereas Hulu may well be generating $25-30 million/mo in ad revenue to get to the $260M figure. Maybe it's just a definition of what's "material." As I've said before though, the bigger question is how Hulu Plus competes on the content acquisition front. With the recent Disney-ABC and NBCU content deals, Netflix is undermining Hulu Plus' core broadcast TV value proposition and people who subscribe to both Netflix and Hulu Plus will quickly see this.Categories: Aggregators
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #82 - Dec. 17, 2010
Daisy Whitney and I are back this week for the 82nd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for December 17, 2010. This will be the final podcast of 2010 and we both want to wish our listeners happy holidays. Daisy and I have have had lots of fun cranking out 32 podcasts this year on all the most important industry topics. We're looking forward to continuing on in 2011.
And speaking of 2011, in this final podcast of the year we turn our sights ahead and discuss the 6 key online/mobile video trends that The Diffusion Group's Colin Dixon and I outlined during Wednesday's webinar (replay and slides available here). Daisy and I focus the bulk of the podcast on two of these predictions: how Netflix will strain under its spectacular growth, and how pay-TV subscriber losses will mount and cord-cutting perceptions could become reality.
Click here to listen to the podcast (13 minutes, 16 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Aggregators, Podcasts, Predictions
Topics: Netflix, Podcast, Predictions
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6 Key 2011 Trends in Online and Mobile Video
Yesterday Colin Dixon from The Diffusion Group and I presented a webinar describing our 6 key trends for 2011 in online and mobile video. Colin is one of the sharpest analysts of the pay-TV and online/mobile video industries and we had no shortage of ideas to sort through. Our list is a joint effort, and during the webinar we each presented the 3 trends we felt the strongest about. In today's post I share and explain each one. At the end of the webinar we conducted a poll asking attendees whether they agreed or disagreed with our predictions. I've noted those results in bold font. If you want to download the slides and/or hear more of our detailed discussion, just register for the on-demand version of the webinar and you'll be emailed a link.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable TV Operators, Mobile Video, Predictions, Regulation, Satellite, Technology, Telcos
Topics: FCC, Google, Net Neutrality, Netflix, TV Everywhere
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Comcast Testing Connected Set-top Box; Would Netflix Be Included?
The WSJ is reporting that Comcast is testing a new connected set-top box that offers a selection of online video alongside traditional linear, VOD and DVR programming. The project is part of Comcast's "Xcalibur" initiative
headed up by Sam Schwartz and would follow other connected set-tops already in the market from competitors like Verizon, AT&T, DirecTV and others. It's a smart move by Comcast; many of its subscribers have been buying inexpensive broadband set-top boxes so why shouldn't Comcast just offer the online services itself and simplify its subscribers' lives?
While it's not clear what online video would be offered, if it's a "closed" model, where only certain apps/sites are available, then it would be akin to boxes like Roku, Apple TV and the connected Blu-ray players, among others. This approach would contrast with "open" boxes that allow full Internet browsing such as Google TV and boxee's new box from D-Link. My hunch is that Comcast would focus on a closed box to start. That would also reduce the complexity of delivering online video in a consistent, high-quality manner, especially given the numerous formats, encoding levels, etc. It's also not clear that consumers yet want a full Internet experience on their TVs and Comcast more than likely would look to be a fast follower rather than a pioneer.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators
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The World According to Time Warner's Jeff Bewkes, Pay-TV's Staunchest Defender
I finally got an hour over the weekend to listen to the replay of last week's UBS media conference keynote discussion with Time Warner's CEO Jeff Bewkes. His comments strongly reinforced my perception of him as the pay-TV (cable/satellite/telco) industry's staunchest defender as well as the leading Netflix
skeptic. Bewkes is worth paying attention to not just because Time Warner owns the Warner Bros. studio and several leading cable networks, but because his approach is a barometer for many other content providers as well.
In Bewkes' world view, the majority of consumers are willing to pay a premium price to get the best, most comprehensive experience of the highest-quality, current content, and distributors are willing/able to pay content creators top dollar for it - in short, a snapshot of the way the pay-TV world has worked for a long while. To Bewkes, digital distribution represents "more opportunity than challenge" in its ability to drive new business models and windows, enhance existing distributor relationships and deliver more value to consumers. To be clear, Bewkes isn't a Luddite, he doesn't oppose digital innovation, he just wants to see the benefits of it accrue to incumbents, not upstarts.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable Networks
Topics: Netflix, Time Warner
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Dec. 5th
Once again I'm pleased to offer VideoNuze's end-of-week feature highlighting and discussing 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week. Read them now or take them with you this weekend!
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, Mobile Video, Telcos
Topics: ABC, Disney, eMarketer, Hulu Plus, Netflix, Nielsen, TV Everywhere, Verizon Wireless
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Will China's Successful Youku IPO Spark US Online Video Offerings in '11?
Yesterday, China's Youku, which started as a YouTube-style user-uploaded video site, but has evolved to a Hulu-style distributor of professional video, went public on the New York Stock Exchange. It offered 15.85 million American Depositary Receipts, or "ADRs," which represent ownership shares
in non-U.S. companies, at $12.80 apiece, raising over $200 million. When the market closed, the ADRs stood at $33.44, up 161%, the best one-day performance for a U.S. IPO in the last 5 years (they're up another $5 today as well). Youku, which recorded $35 million in revenue for the first nine months of this year (and a $25 million loss), had an end of day valuation of $3 billion+.
Yes, I know what you're thinking - this is crazy, the bubble days have returned and there's a huge "China factor" multiplier at work for Youku. All of that is no doubt true. But here's something else that's true - while the global economy and stock markets have undergone wrenching change and volatility over the last 2+ years, the online video market has boomed. For certain kinds of investors (both professional and non-professional) who value growth over everything else, there are few sectors which have more appealing characteristics. As tens of millions of people have adopted online and mobile video, devices for viewing online video on TVs have proliferated, premium content has become available and business models have firmed, investors have taken notice.
Categories: Aggregators, Deals & Financings, International
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Nov. 29th
Following the Thanksgiving break last Friday, VideoNuze's end-of-week feature of curating 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week, is back. Read them now or take them with you this weekend!
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Devices, Mobile Video, Regulation, Telcos, UGC
Topics: Comcast, FCC, IDC, Level 3, Magid, Net Neutrality, Nielsen, Verizon Wireless, Viacom, YouTube
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6 Thoughts on Netflix's New Streaming-Only Plan and DVD Plan Price Hikes
In rolling out a streaming-only service tier this morning, priced at $7.99/mo, Netflix made good on what it has said it would do for months. It's also a logical step given the streaming-only service it introduced 2 months ago in Canada. What was more surprising in today's announcement was the price hikes Netflix is implementing on all of its DVD rental plans, which of course include unlimited streaming. Here are 6 thoughts on today's news:
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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Report: 4% of Hulu Users Subscribe to Hulu Plus; Of Them 88% Also Subscribe to Netflix
A new report being released today by One Touch Intelligence has found that 4% of surveyed Hulu.com users are subscribing to Hulu Plus and that of them, 88% of them are also Netflix subscribers. The survey included 970
individuals who subscribe to both a pay-TV service and a broadband Internet service, and have streamed or downloaded at least one TV show or movie in the past month. Of the 970 individuals, 612 of them said they use the free Hulu.com service at least weekly, with 25 of them subscribing to Hulu Plus. Of the 25, 22 of them also subscribe to Netflix.
On the one hand, the 4% penetration is noteworthy, since Hulu has yet to advertise the Hulu Plus service beyond its own site. That was reflected in the relatively narrow awareness of the service, with 68% of Hulu.com users who are not subscribing to Hulu Plus saying they are either "barely" familiar with Hulu Plus or not familiar with it at all.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Hulu Plus, Netflix, One Touch Intelligence
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Listening To Hulu's Jason Kilar: Motherhood, Apple Pie - And Reality
Listening to Hulu's CEO Jason Kilar today at NewTeeVee Live, it's hard not to admire what he and the Hulu team have accomplished. For the first time,Jason disclosed 2010 projected revenues of $240 million, up 10-fold from $24 million in '08 and $108 million in '09, which is pretty impressive growth. As always, Jason's message is extremely user-centric and forward-looking. Hearing him speak, you definitely get a sense of the positive, relentless efforts he's led to improve the service.
A key part of Jason's message is that premium video should, and will be available anytime, anyplace and on any device in the future. It's a wonderful "motherhood and apple pie" message that's hard to argue with as a viewer. Unfortunately it's also a message that's bumping up against some hard realities in the TV business that Hulu is going to have to surmount to ultimately succeed. Here are at least a few of them:
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Broadcasters
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Netflix Has Added 8 Times As Many Subscribers in 2010 As Top Pay-TV Operators, Combined
Here's a pretty amazing factoid to end your week: in 2010 Netflix has added nearly 8 times as many subscribers as 8 of the top 9 pay-TV operators have, combined (#3 cable operator Cox is private and doesn't report). In the first 3 quarters of 2010, Netflix has added nearly 4.7 million subscribers while the top pay-TV operators have gained 609K.
Breaking down the pay-TV industry net gain further, the 2 main telcos (Verizon and AT&T) have added over 1.2 million subscribers and the 2 main satellite providers (DirecTV and DISH) have added 563K, while the top 4 reporting cable operators (Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Charter and Cablevision) have lost over 1.1 million.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: AT&T, Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Cox, DirecTV, DISH, Netflix, Time Warner Cable, Verizon
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Netflix's Revenue Per Subscriber is Steadily Declining While Free Subscribers Are Soaring
It isn't news that Netflix has been on a huge growth spurt; over the last 5 quarters the company has added an astounding 6.3 million subscribers, increasing its total subscribers by 60% from 10.6 million at the end of Q2 '09 to over 16.9 million at the end of Q3 '10. What's less well understood though is that as the company has shifted its focus to streaming and to adding subscribers at its entry level $8.99/mo tier, several of the company's key metrics have changed substantially. I sensed this was happening with each passing quarter, but I finally got some time to crunch the numbers and see how things have actually been playing out.
No surprise, Netflix's emphasis on the $8.99/mo entry tier is resulting in a steady quarterly decrease in its average revenue per paying subscriber, which has declined 8.9% from $13.30 in Q3 '09 to $12.12 in Q3 '10 (Note I calculated this by excluding average quarterly free subscribers, and by assuming a straight average monthly revenue per quarter. Since Netflix doesn't release monthly information, this is as close an approximation as possible). Netflix management has been candid in explaining that as $8.99/mo subscribers dominate growth (and even lower priced streaming-only Canadian subs are now added), average revenue per subscriber will trend down. At $12.12 in Q3 '10 though, and millions of $8.99/mo subs being added, further decreases should be expected.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Oct. 25th
Lots more happened this week in online/mobile video, and so to make your lives easier, VideoNuze is once again curating 5-6 interesting industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week. Read them now or take them with you this weekend!
No Longer 'Must-See TV'
The WSJ reported this week that Thursday night TV viewership (live or recorded) among 18-49 year-olds is down 4.3% this season to 48.5 million, a drop of 2.2 million viewers. For this age group, the drop across all nights (live or recorded) is 2.7%. While the decreases have immediate implications on networks' ad revenue, the bigger issue of course is what the drops say about shifting consumer preferences. For example, I continue to hear anecdotes about users with connected devices now tuning in first to their Instant Watch queues instead of channel surfing or visiting their DVR libraries or VOD. The Nielsen data corroborates other data (here, here) about the decline of TV viewing, especially among young people, and is another reason why broadcast networks in particular should be embracing connected devices like Google TV, not blocking them.
CW Says Study 'Dispels Myth' About Aversion to Ads in Online Video
Speaking of networks and their online distribution, this week CW released some interesting new data that detailed extremely low abandonment rates for its shows consumed online, even with ad loads almost equal to those on-air. While it is too early to generalize, the data provides a very encouraging sign that networks may be able to achieve parity economics with on-air, even when they window their online releases for delayed availability. It's also an important sign that online video may be a firewall against DVR-based ad-skipping.
Comcast Launches Free Streaming Video Service Xfinity for All Digital Subs
In addition to releasing stellar Q3 earnings this week (albeit with a bigger-than-expected subscriber loss), Comcast also pulled the "beta" label off its Xfinity TV service this week, and relaxed its rules about who can gain access. Now any video subscriber, regardless of who they take their broadband Internet service from, can access XFTV.
Some began to speculate that it could be a precursor for Comcast allowing non-video subs to also gain access to XFTV. This is the concept I wrote about in over a year ago, in "How TV Everywhere Could Turn Cable Operators and Telcos Into Over-the-Top's Biggest Players." The idea is that TV Everywhere services like XFTV could be offered outside of Comcast's franchise areas to allow them to poach video subscribers from other pay-TV operators. It's still a fascinating concept, but nothing about Comcast's move this week suggests it's coming soon.
Insight To Bow 50-Mbps Internet In Two Markets
If you think all that Netflix and other long-form streaming is going to strain users' bandwidth, think again, as yet another cable operator/broadband ISP, 9th-largest Insight Communications unveiled plans for a speedy 50 megabit per second broadband tier. Big players like Comcast and Time Warner Cable have been offering this for a while already. It's still very pricey, but as some viewers shift more of their consumption to online and away from conventional TV viewing (see above), more bandwidth will be worth the price. Update - I missed this item, that over in the U.K. Virgin Media began taking sign-ups for a 100 Mbps broadband service. Net, net, last-mile bandwidth will keep expanding to meet increasing demand.
Promoted Videos hit half a billion views
Fresh evidence this week that YouTube is finding innovative ways to monetize its massive audience: the company's performance-based "Promoted videos" format achieved its 500 millionth view, just 2 years after being introduced. With Promoted videos, anyone uploading a video to YouTube (brand, content provider, amateur), can buy opportunities to have that video appear alongside relevant keyword-based searches in YouTube. It's a similar format to AdWords, and of course the video provider only pays when their video is actually clicked on. As I said recently, YouTube is becoming a much more important part of Google's overall advertising mix, while for many brands, YouTube's home page is fast-becoming the most desirable piece of online real estate.
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Comcast, CW, Insight, Nielsen, YouTube
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6 Items of Interest for the Week of Oct. 18th
It was another busy week for online/mobile video, and so VideoNuze is continuing its Friday practice of curating 5-6 interesting industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week. Read them now or take them with you this weekend!
Networks block Google TV to protect themselves
Yesterday news started breaking that ABC, CBS and NBC are blocking access by Google TV. There are numerous concerns being cited - potential disruption of advertising, encouraging cord-cutting, incenting piracy, diminished branding, unsatisfactory ad splits with Google, and general worry about Google invading the living room. Each item on its own is probably not enough to motivate the blocking action, but taken together they are. Still, doesn't it feel a little foolish that broadcasters would differentiate between a computer screen and a TV screen like this? For Google, it's more evidence that nothing comes easy when trying to work with Hollywood. I'm trying to find out more about what's happening behind the scenes.
TWC Lines Up For ESPN Online Kick
An important milestone for TV Everywhere may come as early as next Monday, as #2 cable operator Time Warner is planning to make ESPN viewing available online to paying subscribers. Remote access is part of the recent and larger retransmission consent deal between Disney and TWC. TV Everywhere initiatives have been slow to roll out, amid cable programmers' reluctance. Further proving that remote authenticated access works and that it's attractive with a big name like ESPN would increase TV Everywhere's momentum.
Hulu Plus, Take Two: How's $4.95 a Month?
Rumors are swirling that Hulu may cut the price of its nascent Hulu Plus subscription service in half, to $4.95/mo. That would be a tacit recognition of Hulu Plus's minimal value proposition, largely due to its skimpy content offering. As I initially reported in August, over 88% of Hulu Plus content is available for free on Hulu.com. More important, Netflix's streaming gains have really marginalized Hulu Plus. Netflix's far greater resources and subscriber base have enabled it to spend far bigger on content acquisition. Even at $4.95, I continue to see Hulu Plus as an underwhelming proposition in an increasingly noisy landscape.
Viacom Hires Superstar Lawyer to Handle YouTube Appeal
Viacom is showing no signs of giving up on its years-long copyright infringement litigation against Google and YouTube. This week the company retained Theodore Olson, a high-profile appellate and Supreme Court specialist to handle its appeal. While most of the world has moved on and is trying to figure out how to benefit from YouTube's massive scale, Viacom charges on in court.
Verizon to sell Galaxy Tab starting November 11th for $599.99
Verizon is determined to play its part in the tablet computer craze, this week announcing with Samsung that it will sell the latter's new "Tab" tablet for $600 beginning on November 11th. The move follows last week's announcement by Verizon that it will begin selling the iPad on Oct. 28th, which was widely interpreted as the first step toward Verizon offering the iPhone early next year. Apple currently owns the tablet market, and it remains to be seen whether newcomers like the Tab can break through. For his part, Apple CEO Steve Jobs said on Apple's earnings call this week that all other tablets are "dead on arrival." Note, if you want to see the "Tab" and learn more about how connected and mobile devices are transforming the video landscape, come to the VideoSchmooze breakfast at the Samsung Experience on Wed., Dec. 1st.
One-Third of US Adults Skip Live TV: Report
A fascinating new study from Say Media (the entity formed from the recent merger of VideoEgg and Six Apart), suggesting that 56 million, or one-third of adult Internet users, have reduced their live TV viewership. The research identified 2 categories: "Opt Outs" (22 million) who don't own a TV or haven't watched TV in the last week and stream more than 4 hours/week, and "On Demanders" (34 million) who also stream more than 4 hours/week and report watching less live TV than they did a year ago. Not surprisingly, relative to Internet users as a whole, both Opt Outs and On Demanders skew younger and higher educated, though only the latter had higher income than the average Internet user. This type of research is important because the size of both the ad-supported and paid markets for live, first-run TV is far larger than catalog viewing. To the extent its appeal is diminishing as this study suggests poses big problems for everyone in the video ecosystem.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Devices, Mobile Video, Telcos
Topics: ABC, Apple, CBS, ESPN, Google TV, Hulu Plus, iPad, NBC, Samsung, Say, Time Warner Cable, TV Everywhere, Verizon, Viacom, YouTube
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