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VideoNuze Report Podcast #86 - Feb. 4, 2011
Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 86th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for February 4, 2011.
In today's podcast we discuss the content deal announced this week between Comcast and Time Warner that allows delivery to VOD, Xfinity TV online and iOS/Android tablets and smartphones. As I wrote in "Comcast-Time Warner Deal Shows Promise and Challenges of TV Everywhere," while the deal should be a template for others between pay-TV operators and cable TV networks, it also highlights many challenges that remain in realizing the companies' TV Everywhere vision.
Click here to listen to the podcast (12 minutes, 17 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Podcasts
Topics: Comcast, Time Warner
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Comcast-Time Warner Deal Shows Promise and Challenges of TV Everywhere
If you're looking for a template of how pay-TV operators and cable networks need to be working together if they want to successfully combat the rise of Netflix and other over-the-top entrants, yesterday's long-term agreement between Comcast and Time Warner is a great example. Under the agreement, Comcast digital subscribers will gain access to popular programs and movies
from Turner Broadcasting networks like TNT, TBS, CNN, Cartoon Network and others, across multiple platforms, including Comcast's On Demand service, Xfinity TV online web site and companion iPad/iPhone and Android apps (which just last night began streaming full episodes). Importantly, Turner networks' viewers will also be able to view the same programs/movies on Turner web sites and online/mobile platforms. No extra charges to the consumer are planned.
The deal is a solid step forward in realizing the vision of TV Everywhere that both companies' CEOs laid out back in July, 2009 (see this video for more). And no doubt both companies want to make similar deals with others in the industry; Comcast with other cable TV network groups, and Time Warner with other pay-TV operators. Still, the fact that the two foremost proponents of TV Everywhere took a year-and-a-half to go from laying out their vision to actually announcing a deal underscores how arduous the full realization of the TV Everywhere model will be.
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Charter, Comcast, Netflix, Nielsen, Time Warner
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TiVo Links Up With Charter
TiVo scored a big deal this week, as Charter Communications, the fourth-largest U.S. cable operator, announced that it would be offering TiVo's interface and its
latest Premiere boxes to its subscribers. Because TiVo has integrations with lots of online video sources (including Netflix, Amazon, etc.), the deal is significant because it blends the traditional cable experience with the new over-the-top competitors. The deal also suggests what I pointed out in my review of Cisco's "Videoscape " - that beyond the very largest pay-TV operators, partnerships are going to be the way to go for them to deliver competitive experiences. For TiVo, the Charter win follows recent deals with both DirecTV and Cox. No doubt more will follow. Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices
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In Approving Comcast-NBCU, the FCC Blesses the Cable Model
Reading yesterday's FCC press release approving the Comcast-NBCU transaction, my main reaction was that rather than using the opportunity to try to force fundamental changes in the core cable business model, the FCC, through its key conditions, instead essentially blessed it.
Comcast - and by extension other pay-TV operators - must be delighted that their core packaging and pricing philosophies were basically untouched. Cable networks and studios should also be happy that their ability to monetize
through the monthly affiliate model remained intact as was their flexibility to monetize online (mostly). As a result, the large ecosystem of participants in the video ecosystem (e.g. talent, production personnel, etc.) should also be happy that their economic well-being won't be disrupted. Lastly, investors in the pay-TV ecosystem should also be happy; it's always a good day when the government chooses not to meddle in markets that are working pretty nicely from investors' perspective.
To get more specific, in the press release there are 7 key conditions under the heading, "Protecting the Development of Online Competition" that Comcast and/or Comcast/NBCU are required to follow. These relate to online video and I have listed them out below. After each one I have added my analysis/reactions.
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Deals & Financings, Regulation
Topics: Comcast, FCC, NBCU, Netflix
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Jan. 10th
Even though I was very focused this week on the CES "takeaways" series, there was still plenty of news happening in the online and mobile video industries. So as in the past, I'm pleased to offer VideoNuze's end-of-week feature highlighting 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week. Enjoy!
Level 3 fights on in Comcast traffic dispute
Level 3 is showing no signs of relenting on its accusations that Comcast is unfairly trying to charge the CDN for Internet traffic it delivers to Comcast's network. In an interview this week, Level 3 said it may use the "Open Internet" provisions of the FCC's new network neutrality rules to press its case. Level 3's challenge is coming at the 11th hour of the FCC's approval process of the Comcast-NBCU deal; it's not really clear if Level 3 is having any impact on slowing the approval, which appears imminent.
Comcast-NBCU deal challenged over online video proposal
Speaking of challenges to the Comcast-NBCU deal, word emerged this week that Disney is voicing concern over the FCC's proposed deal condition that would force Comcast to offer NBC programming to any party that had concluded a deal with one of NBC's competitors for online distribution. The Disney concern appears to be that the condition would have an undue influence on how the online video market evolves and how Disney's own deals would be impacted. While the FCC should be setting conditions to the deal, the Disney concerns highlights how, in a nascent, fast-moving market like online video, government intervention can cause unintended side effects.
YouTube is notching 200 million mobile video views/day
As if on cue with my CES takeaway #3, that mobility is video's next frontier, YouTube revealed this week that it is now delivering 200 million mobile views per day, tripling its volume in 2010. That would equal about 6 billion views per month, which is remarkable. And that amount is poised to increase, as YouTube launched music video site VEVO for Android devices. YouTube clearly sees the revenue potential in all this mobile video activity; it also said that it would append a pre-roll ad in Android views for tens of thousands of content partners.
Google creates video codec dust-up
Google stirred up a hornet's nest this week by announcing that it was dropping support for the widely popular H.264 video codec in its Chrome browser, in favor of its own WebM codec, in an attempt to drive open standards. Though Chrome only represents about 10% market share among browsers (doubling in 2010 though), for these users, it means they'll need to use Flash to view non-WebM ended video. There are a lot of downstream implications of Google's move, but for space reasons, rather than enumerating them here, check out some of the great in-depth coverage the issue has received this week (here, here, here, here).
Netflix usage drives up Canadian broadband bills
An interesting test of Canadian Netflix streaming showed that a user there might have to pay an incremental $12/month under one ISP's consumption cap. That would be more than the $7.99/mo that the Netflix subscription itself costs, leading to potential cord-shaving behavior. This type of upcharge hasn't become an issue here in the U.S. because even ISPs that have caps have set them high relative to most users' current consumption. But if streaming skyrockets as many think it will, and the FCC allows usage-based billing, this could fast become a reality in the U.S. as well.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, CDNs, Deals & Financings, International, Mobile Video, Regulation, Technology
Topics: Comcast, Disney, FCC, Google, Level 3, NBCU, Netflix, WebM, YouTube
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CES Takeaway #2: Don't Count Out the Pay-TV Operators
(Note: Each day this week I'll be writing about one key takeaway from CES 2011.)
If you've been thinking that pay-TV operators were imminent roadkill due to burgeoning "over-the-top" consumption and imminent cord-cutting mania, then important news from CES 2011 should cause you to reassess your assumptions. Instead of new technology undermining pay-TV businesses (which is too often how media characterizes things), the largest operators are starting to show how technology can be used to create compelling new value for their subscribers and enhance their competitiveness even as they relinquish a little control.
At CES, pay-TV announcements focused primarily on 2 areas: extending viewing to tablet computers and eliminating the set-top box by delivering full channel line-ups over broadband to connected TVs. Comcast, the largest U.S. pay-TV operator, made announcements spanning both: live, in-home access on iPads, with on-demand access outside the home, plus Xfinity TV access on certain Samsung connected TVs and on its new Galaxy Tab tablet. Time Warner Cable announced deals with both Samsung and Sony to deliver its line-up to certain connected TVs as well. Dish Network also unveiled its "Remote Access" service for Android tablets, allowing both live and on-demand viewing using the Sling Adapter (it had announced this for iPads in December). Last fall, Dish was also the first pay-TV operator to integrate with Google TV.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: AT&T, Comcast, Netflix, Samsung, Sony, Time Warner Cable, Verizon
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #83 - Jan. 7, 2011
Daisy Whitney and I are back this week for the 83rd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for January 7, 2011, the first of this new year.
Today we discuss 3 news items from CES this week: Netflix gaining a dedicated remote control button on 11 different CE companies' connected devices, Comcast launching live and on-demand TV on tablet computers and Cisco's new "Videoscape" TV platform. Enjoy!
Click here to listen to the podcast (13 minutes, 43 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!
Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators, Podcasts, Technology
Topics: CES, Cisco, Comcast, Netflix
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Comcast To Offer Live, VOD Access on Tablets
Comcast is announcing this morning that it will allow subscribers to stream live programs to their iPads or Android tablets later this year (no definite time disclosed). While the caveat is that only in-home usage will only be permitted, the benefits are still meaningful. For instance, subscribers who were paying for (or considering paying for) additional outlets in 2nd and 3rd rooms, which are only casually used, could now save money by not taking service in those rooms and using their iPads instead.
Further, subscribers can now watch in rooms that possibly didn't even have a TV. I'm familiar with this example, as I've used my iPad to watch Netflix content in various areas of my house that don't have TVs or cable service. Presumably the roadmap calls for out-of-home viewing as well, giving it full Sling-like benefits (at no additional cost). That would provide even more value to tablet owners.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices, Mobile Video, Video On Demand
Topics: Android, Comcast, iPad, Xfinity
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Online/Mobile Video's Top 10 of 2010
2010 was another spectacular year of growth and innovation in online and mobile video, so it's no easy feat to choose the 10 most significant things that happened during the year. However, I've taken my best shot below, and offered explanations. No doubt I've forgotten a few things, but I think it's a pretty solid list. As much as happened in 2010 though, I expect even more next year, with plenty of surprises.
My top 10 are as follows:
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Broadcasters, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Deals & Financings, Devices, Mobile Video, Regulation, Satellite, Technology, Telcos
Topics: 4G, Android, Apple, Google TV, iPad, Net Neutrality, Netflix, YouTube
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Dec. 12th
Happy Friday. Once again I'm pleased to offer VideoNuze's end-of-week feature analyzing 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items from the week that we didn't have a chance to cover previously. This week I'm changing the format a little bit, creating an individual post for each item. I'm doing this in response to reader interest in being able to share individual items (not the whole group) more easily. Let me know what you think of the new format. Here they are:
1. Potential YouTube-Next New Networks deal is a bit of a head-scratcher
2. Here's a great example of why TV Everywhere matters so much to the pay-TV industry
3. Hulu's Kilar: "Hulu Plus now a material portion" of revenues
4. Google not ready to announce fiber winning communities
5. Tiffany shows online video works for luxury retailers
Read them now or check them out this weekend!Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Commerce, Deals & Financings, Indie Video, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: Google, Hulu Plus, Netflix, Next New Networks, Tiffany, YouTube
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Here's A Great Example of Why TV Everywhere Matters So Much To the Pay-TV Industry
Want a really tangible example of why TV Everywhere is so critical to the pay-TV industry? Then have a look at this post from industry banker Ken Sonenclar, who recounts his personal experience of trying to find an online version of the season finale of Showtime's "Dexter" on an evening when bad weather knocked out his satellite dish. Frustrated that he couldn't find the episode available anywhere, he ultimately stumbled upon a pirate site and happily watched the episode, albeit at somewhat lower quality.
Experiences like these no doubt play out daily as pay-TV subscribers seek convenient, on-demand access to their favorite programs. The TV Everywhere model works because it still requires a valid paid subscription, so the current monetization model is unharmed. But the incremental value to viewers is substantial. With services like Netflix and Hulu Plus increasingly available on every conceivable online and mobile device, consumers' expectations are being raised. If the pay-TV industry (both operators and networks) can't meet or exceed the experiences that a sub $10/mo service can deliver, then they shouldn't be surprised when subscribers begin dropping their expensive pay-TV services.Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: TV Everywhere
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6 Key 2011 Trends in Online and Mobile Video
Yesterday Colin Dixon from The Diffusion Group and I presented a webinar describing our 6 key trends for 2011 in online and mobile video. Colin is one of the sharpest analysts of the pay-TV and online/mobile video industries and we had no shortage of ideas to sort through. Our list is a joint effort, and during the webinar we each presented the 3 trends we felt the strongest about. In today's post I share and explain each one. At the end of the webinar we conducted a poll asking attendees whether they agreed or disagreed with our predictions. I've noted those results in bold font. If you want to download the slides and/or hear more of our detailed discussion, just register for the on-demand version of the webinar and you'll be emailed a link.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable TV Operators, Mobile Video, Predictions, Regulation, Satellite, Technology, Telcos
Topics: FCC, Google, Net Neutrality, Netflix, TV Everywhere
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Comcast Testing Connected Set-top Box; Would Netflix Be Included?
The WSJ is reporting that Comcast is testing a new connected set-top box that offers a selection of online video alongside traditional linear, VOD and DVR programming. The project is part of Comcast's "Xcalibur" initiativeheaded up by Sam Schwartz and would follow other connected set-tops already in the market from competitors like Verizon, AT&T, DirecTV and others. It's a smart move by Comcast; many of its subscribers have been buying inexpensive broadband set-top boxes so why shouldn't Comcast just offer the online services itself and simplify its subscribers' lives?
While it's not clear what online video would be offered, if it's a "closed" model, where only certain apps/sites are available, then it would be akin to boxes like Roku, Apple TV and the connected Blu-ray players, among others. This approach would contrast with "open" boxes that allow full Internet browsing such as Google TV and boxee's new box from D-Link. My hunch is that Comcast would focus on a closed box to start. That would also reduce the complexity of delivering online video in a consistent, high-quality manner, especially given the numerous formats, encoding levels, etc. It's also not clear that consumers yet want a full Internet experience on their TVs and Comcast more than likely would look to be a fast follower rather than a pioneer.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Dec. 5th
Once again I'm pleased to offer VideoNuze's end-of-week feature highlighting and discussing 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week. Read them now or take them with you this weekend!
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, Mobile Video, Telcos
Topics: ABC, Disney, eMarketer, Hulu Plus, Netflix, Nielsen, TV Everywhere, Verizon Wireless
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Comcast Launches First Android Xfinity Mobile App
Three weeks after launching its free Xfinity mobile app for Apple iOS devices, today Comcast introduced the Android version of the app. From a video features perspective, the iOS and Android versions line up pretty closely, including search and browse of the On Demand catalog, remote DVR programming and a searchable guide to local listings. All of these are handy, but as I wrote a few weeks ago, the big win for Comcast and its customers will happen when it's possible to actually watch a TV show or movie selected using the app (that capability is coming soon and is part of the larger TV Everywhere strategy).
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices
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Is Microsoft Planning to Join the Pay-TV Party?
Reuters is reporting this morning that Microsoft is exploring a range of options to get into the pay-TV business through a new over-the-top service. The article points to a potential "virtual cable provider" model whereby Microsoft would license multiple networks, which would be delivered to Xbox gaming consoles and other devices. Also under consideration are creating "content silos" to sell specific premium channels.
If Microsoft were to join the pay-TV business aggressively it would further alter industry dynamics. The number one issue in play right now is whether consumers are forsaking traditionally packaged pay-TV services and instead opting for some mix of free and paid online-delivered alternatives. Yet while Internet options are gaining in popularity (with Netflix's explosive growth to nearly 17 million subscribers at the end of Q3 the primary beneficiary), hard data supporting cord-cutting is still scarce.
Categories: Broadcasters, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Devices
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Are Live Sports Pay-TV's Firewall or Its Albatross?
I've long assumed that live sports carried on cable TV networks (e.g. ESPN, Fox Sports, TNT, TBS, NFL Network, regional sports networks, etc.) would be a key firewall against cord-cutting since the games they air are unavailable online. In other words, if you're a sports fan, dropping your pay-TV subscription would be unthinkable. While I still believe that's mostly true, recently I've started wondering if it's possible that sports actually may also be an albatross for pay-TV operators, limiting their ability to effectively compete with online-only alternatives.
I use the word albatross because pay-TV providers actually have very little flexibility to offer non-sports fans lower-priced packages that don't include sports-oriented channels. In fact, the most surprising aspect of last week's announcement by Time Warner Cable of a new lower-priced tier called "TV Essentials" it's testing is that it will exclude ESPN, which is virtually unheard-of in pay-TV packaging. Because the underlying deals that cable networks have with sports leagues and rights-holders are so expensive, the networks try to get carried on the most popular pay-TV service tiers, thereby ensuring the highest number of subscriber homes (basic cable networks are paid by distributors on a per subscriber basis, so the more subscriber homes, the higher their revenue).
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Sports, Telcos
Topics: ESPN, Fox Sports, NFL Network, TBS, Time Warner Cable, TNT
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Nov. 15th
After a short break, VideoNuze's Friday feature of curating 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week, returns today. Read them now or take them with you this weekend!
Time Warner Cable Experiments With Lower Tier Video Package
It's a rare day when a cable operator announces a lower-priced offering, but that's what Time Warner Cable did yesterday, unveiling a test of what it's calling "TV Essentials." The new tier, priced between $30-$40, will most notably exclude ESPN, the most expensive channel in the cable universe, meaning right away TV Essentials isn't targeted to sports fans. I've argued for a while now that pay-TV operators have ceded the low-priced/value-oriented end of the video market to Netflix (and others), which given the ongoing recession is a mistake. It will be interesting to see how the new bargain service fares; 2 things that will limit its appeal though are that no channels will be offered in HD, and that it appears those with broadband Internet and telephone services won't benefit from typical package discounts.
Nielsen study: We're still a nation of couch pumpkins
More evidence this week that despite all the deserved enthusiasm over online and mobile delivery, good old-fashioned TV viewing still rules in terms of hours of consumption. Nielsen said that the average person watched 143 hours of TV per month in Q2, essentially flat vs. a year ago. For homes with DVRs, hours of time watched on them nudged up a bit to about 24 1/2 hours. On a related note, this week comScore released its online video viewing data for October, which showed average viewing of 15.1 hours per person. While online video has made huge progress in the last few years, it still has a ton of room to grow to catch up with TV.
More Videos Ads, More User Acceptance
Speaking of the comparison between online video and TV, this week brought some interesting new data on monetization patterns for premium online video. Online video ad manager FreeWheel released data that showed mid-roll ads are the fastest-growing category of ads (up 693% since Q1), and now represent 8% of its ad volume. Completion rates have increased for pre, mid and post-roll ads this year, but notably mid-rolls have the highest completion rate, at 90%. FreeWheel's conclusion is that monetization of premium online video is starting to look a lot like TV, with ad pods inserted throughout. Going a step further, if viewer acceptance of mid-rolls stays high, then this represents a valuable opportunity for TV networks in particular to combat DVR-based ad-skipping.
Startup Claims To Have Set-Top Hulu Can't Block
It was inevitable that Hulu's decision to block access to its programs would set off a game of whack-a-mole, with various devices springing up to do end-arounds. Sure enough, the $99 Orb TV debuted this week, prominently positioning itself as the device that can bring Hulu (among other content) to your TV. One catch is that Orb streams video from your computer and only does so in standard definition. It addresses the "keyboard in the living room" challenge by also including a smartphone app to control the device. It's not a perfect solution, but it does provide a glimpse into the PR-unfriendly dynamic that Hulu, and the broadcast networks, have created for themselves by blocking access to their content by Google TV and others. No doubt there will be plenty more Orb-like devices to come to market in the months ahead, all positioning themselves as solving the blocking problem.
Comcast's Top Digital Exec Amy Banse to Open New Silicon Valley Equity Fund for Cable Giant and NBC
As Comcast enters the final stages of approval for its NBCU deal, the company this week announced a new NBCU management structure. One item that wasn't formally announced yet, but was reported by AllThingsD earlier this week was that Amy Banse, formerly head of Comcast Interactive Media (now headed by Matt Strauss), will be heading to Silicon Valley to run the combined operations of Comcast's current Comcast Interactive Capital venture arm, and NBCU's current Peacock Equity (a JV with GE). With all the distribution, technology and content assets that will be under the Comcast roof, the fund will be at the top of any online/mobile video startup's list of strategic investors. I've known Amy for a while and have enjoyed having her on industry panels; she'll be a huge asset to Comcast in the Valley venture world.Categories: Advertising, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Deals & Financings, Devices
Topics: Comcast, comScore, ESPN, FreeWheel, Hulu, NBCU, Nielsen, Orb, Time Warner Cable
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How About Some Actual Data in the Cord-Cutting Debate?
No sooner did SNL Kagan's press release, announcing that the U.S. pay-TV industry had lost 119K subscribers in Q3 '10, following a loss of 216K subscribers in Q2, hit the wire today, than the blogosphere was alight with a fresh round of posts that cord-cutting was to blame. This chorus was surely egged on by Kagan senior analyst Ian Olgeirson's remark in the press release that "it is becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss the impact of over-the-top substitution on video subscriber performance." That remark was a notable change of tone from Kagan's Q2 release which ascribed subscriber losses solely to the country's ongoing economic woes.
Note however that Olgeirson only offered his opinion, rather than any actual, hard data from Kagan about cord-cutting's impact. That is characteristic of both sides of the current cord-cutting debate - lots of opining, but little-to-no reliable data. In my own Q3 analysis - in which I suggested that the pay-TV as a whole likely lost around 97K subscribers in Q3 (though the group of 8 of the top 9 pay-TV operators actually gained subscribers) - I noted that nobody truly knows the impact of cord-cutting, yet anyway.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: SNL Kagan
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Comcast's New Xfinity TV App: Nice Start, Lots More To Do
Comcast unveiled its new Xfinity TV app today for iOS devices, and after downloading and playing around with it a bit, I'd say it's a nice start, though there is a lot more to do. The free app is ultimately meant to allow Comcast digital video subscribers to use it as a guide, program their DVRs, search for shows in the On Demand catalog, view streaming content, create watch lists and access social networking sites to share the viewing experience.
In the press release Comcast noted that the last 3 features will be coming soon. Of these, the viewing feature on the iOS devices is the most interesting, as it will allow authenticated subscribers to view available content wherever they may be. That's the vision of TV Everywhere, and it's good to see Comcast bridging its content to non-Comcast set-top boxes (which is actually quite a rarity in the cable TV business). It's also an example of how Comcast will, in a sense, be going over the top of other pay-TV operators, when its subscribers watch video outside of Comcast territories.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices, Mobile Video
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