Posts for 'Indie Video'

Disney/ABC Television Group's official announcement this morning of Stage 9 Digital Media, an experimental new media content studio, is another key milestone in the fast-moving broadband video industry.

I got a short briefing about Stage 9 late yesterday from Disney/ABC because it asked me to provide some analyst context to the LA Times' Dawn Chmielewski, who's done a great piece here. Stage 9 is Disney/ABC's key initiative to reach the coveted 18-34 audience in synch with this audience's unique media consumption patterns. Programming will be short, funny, well-produced, episodic, and widely distributed through popular broadband sites, social networks, mobile and download services.

I interpret Disney/ABC's move, when coupled with recent initiatives by other big media companies into original broadband video production, as further evidence of two key trends: that broadband video has come of age as a key priority for the largest media companies and that it is impossible to appeal to today's younger audiences simply by hewing to the traditional rules of the media game.

Also of significance is that Disney/ABC announced that "Squeegees," which is Stage 9's first release, will be co-exclusively premiered on ABC.com and YouTube starting today and sponsored by Toyota. Yes, you read that right. YouTube! The scruffy user-generated phenom that big media was threatening to sue out existence not so long ago, and which of course is now owned by Google, big media's most anxiety-inducing "frenemy," has been elevated to launch partner status for Stage 9's first program.

The "Squeegees" co-premiere is quite an accomplishment for YouTube. It shows that YouTube's methodical efforts to gain legitimacy (and a business model!) by establishing partner channels with media companies are beginning to pay off. David Eun, Google's VP of Content Partnerships has repeatedly explained this game plan to me, and others over the last year. The Stage 9 launch partnership should certainly be regarded as a major win for the young company. It is also another data point I'd use to support my contention that in the broadband age, traditional conceptions about copyright monetization need to be radically re-thought (Viacom, are you listening?).

I'm enthusiastic about the Stage 9 initiative, as I believe it holds lots of potential for Disney/ABC. It gives the company inroads to the elusive 18-34 set, offers the prospect of innumerable and invaluable insights about how to effectively program in the broadband age, provides a whole new internal breeding ground for developing new on-air programming (a possible double win, as this might help fix the broken and expensive traditional pilot process, though my enthusiasm on this point is tempered by news today of Quarterlife's NBC ratings fiasco) and creates new and exciting multi-platform sponsorship opportunities.

Chances are you've never heard of Jake Sasseville. He's looking to change that, and in a hurry.

I caught up with Jake, who is the host of "The Edge with Jake Sasseville," a late-night show that premieres tomorrow night on 40 ABC affiliates around the country. His model offers an interesting case study in how the worlds of TV and broadband are merging. This is opening up lots of new opportunities for talent with the creativity, moxie and financial backing to take advantage.

By way of quick background, Jake is a 22 year-old from Maine who moved to New York and has basically made it his mission to become a big-time multi-platform entertainment personality. He laid the groundwork for The Edge by focusing on YouTube, Facebook, MySpace and the like to begin getting his name out and generate a following. The Edge is part-Letterman, part reality, combining plenty of goofy man-on-the-street interviews with outrageous stunts like taking on a female boxer and stripping down with a nude model. The target audience is clearly 20-somethings looking for a peer to reflect their lifestyles and sensibilities.

Jake would be just another broadband personality except that now he's self-syndicating The Edge to 40 local ABC stations, paying them somewhere between $150-5,000 per half hour to get his show on the air. He's also been able to convince these stations to give him some on-air promotion and not to list him as paid programming.

Trying to respect his audience's distaste for advertising, he's cut the number of minutes of ads time from 8 to 4 and tried to find sponsors who really want to reach this audience and are willing to be a part of The Edge journey. On board so far are Ford and Overstock, with others in the pipeline. Jake insists that he's not going to get caught in selling on CPMs, but instead is trying to offer sponsors new and creative ways of getting their brands noticed, through additional product placement and multi-platform insertions.

Though he concedes to being short on the specifics of how programming will now flow between on-air and broadband, he's committed to experimenting to figure out what works. For now he understands that TV is better suited to full-length while broadband is better for clips. He has commitments from the 40 stations to do two 13 week series, so the show should be on through the fall. For the first year he doesn't see any big financial gains, rather, it's all about building his brand's awareness with every tool at his disposal.

There has been much speculation about how broadband and TV will merge, yet precious few examples of tight programming integration. Jake is pioneering some interesting terrain with The Edge, which will no doubt yield some key lessons for the rest of the market about how to build an entertainment brand in the broadband era.

The Internet's low entry barriers are again at work, this time in the video-based "how-to" category, which has recently attracted a rush of well-funded new competitors. It's no surprise: how many of us would rather watch a video of someone explaining how to do something vs. reading a lengthy and often poorly-written guide?

Like many things in the broadband video world, the players' strategies, content approaches and business models are all over the board. In the ad-supported category, the earliest entrants (and their funding) are ExpertVillage (now owned by Demand Media) and VideoJug ($30M from last May), with HowCast ($8M from Tudor/others), 5Min.com ($5M from Spark Capital) and WonderHowTo.com (undisclosed amount from General Catalyst) launching more recently. Of course there's also YouTube and DIYNetwork from Scripps, with its sister cable channel, and scores of other sites that offer free instructional video. Then in the paid download category there is Zipidee (angel round), which recently acquired TotalVid and iAmplify ($6M from Kodiak). plus countless other video download sites.

One of the lines of demarcation for the ad-supported sites is how they acquire content. Does the video come solely from "experts" or also from the community? For now, it appears that ExpertVillage and VideoJug rely on experts while the other ad-supported upstarts rely on the community as well. I spoke with Ran Harnevo, CEO of 5Min.com, who believes its highly community-oriented focus is a real differentiator. In fact, 5Min bills itself as a "Life Videopedia", a spin on the hugely popular Wikipedia, which demonstrates the power of user contributions.

The whole notion that a top-down editorially-driven approach will ever be sufficiently comprehensive seems unlikely, so my guess is that some UGC augment eventually will be required by all players. That means these sites will compete with each other for the best contributors, in the same way that video sharing sites like Metacafe, Veoh, Revver and others compete with each other in general video.

To succeed in this horse race, 5Min's focus is to offer the best overall platform, including a focus on technology. So 5Min provides strong branding opportunities, a revenue share, tools and features and of course, traffic. On the technology side, one differentiator is its "SmartPlayer", which allows zooming, super slow-motion, frame-by-frame and storyboard playback.

One of the main reasons there's so much activity on the ad-supported side is that how-to videos provide highly-targeted and engaged audiences that sponsors crave. At a minimum, marrying these how-to videos to Google AdSense provides a baseline revenue model. But the real opportunity is to aggregate enough traffic in a category to land sponsors who will be prominently featured. So for example, while 5Min already does an impressive 5M views/mo, it will likely need to be in that range per category to appeal to big-name sponsors. The company will begin running ads in Q2, and is focused on display ads and overlays, not pre-rolls, which Ran thinks are too disruptive. To build its traffic it will pursue widgetization, 3rd party distribution and SEO.

All of this how-to activity is clearly going to be a boon for users. Just as the Internet has provided an explosion of information, these video how-to sites will now make doing things a whole lot easier. How to break out of the growing pack will continue to be each how-to site's challenge for the foreseeable future.

If you had any doubts that brand marketing and entertainment programming are converging, an hour spent listening to a presentation at the NATPE conference yesterday by Shelly Lazarus, Chairman and CEO of Oglivy & Mather Worldwide would have quashed them in a hurry.

This new reality is a direct result of the audience-fractured, advertising-averse world in which we now live. Ms. Lazarus believes that for agencies, "the challenge as stewards of brands is to help them tell a better story." In fact, telling a better story (the traditional agency imperative, I would argue) is no longer sufficient, as Ms. Lazarus continued: "Now brands need to be a part of the content story."

As such, she envisions far tighter links between ad agencies and the Hollywood creative community. Drawing a meaningful distinction about these industries' respective roles, she explained to the audience of content types: "We need all of you desperately...we can come up with a brand idea, but we can't do programming."

She emphasized repeatedly that to optimize the branded entertainment relationship, agencies and the advertisers they represent should not be called upon to "write a check" when production is virtually wrapped up. Rather, they should be brought in as early in the creative process as possible, and be provided an opportunity to help shape the story narrative and become a vital part of it.

Even while recognizing the role that brands have played since the early TV days of sponsored "soap operas", this proposed tight intertwining of advertising and programming will no doubt strike creative purists as heretical, while sending consumer protection advocates to DEFCON 5.

Regardless, the branded entertainment initiatives Oglivy is now encouraging its clients to selectively pursue reflects nothing more than the hard realities of today's complex and brutally competitive marketplace. Empowered by ever-stronger technologies - broadband chief among them - consumers are getting choosier in their media consumption habits, with advertisers and their messages getting the short end of the stick. With technology increasingly defining young people's lifestyles, this is a trend that will only intensify.

Faced with this daunting prospect, leaders in the agency world like Ms. Lazarus have astutely recognized that by carefully placing their clients' brands within the story line itself, they are creating a much-needed firewall, not to mention a breakthrough new consumer engagement opportunity. To be sure, branded entertainment is not a willy-nilly pursuit, at least not at Oglivy. The agency has set up a unit solely to create, execute and manage these opportunities. Listening to Ms. Lazarus, it was apparent that for all her enthusiasm for branded entertainment, she knows it's neither universally appropriate for all brands nor a catch-all cure to all that ails the industry.

Branded entertainment and broadband video are a perfect match in many respects. Broadband video's nascent development, combined with its still unclear monetization mechanisms and flexible/interactive capabilities make it fertile ground for agencies such as Oglivy to experiment.

So where specifically does all this lead? Three things I would bet on: more product-centric viral video initiatives like Dove's Evolution (presenting an opportunity for Dove - an Oglivy client - to "have a point of view about beauty," as Ms. Lazarus put it), more product sponsored and conceived programming (e.g. Hellmann's "In Search of Real Food" on Yahoo; Hellman's is another Oglivy client) and more user-generated video contests around products (e.g. Frito-Lay, Heinz, etc.).

Broadband video is flowering just as traditional advertising and entertainment forms are under increasing duress. As such, it will be an enormous sandbox for agencies, brands, content creators and their audiences to all play in.

Among the many partnership announcements at CES this week, there are a number worth highlighting. Today I focus on the following three:

Viacom syndication - Viacom announced syndication deals for MTV Networks' stable of content with five leading broadband video sites: Dailymotion, GoFish, Imeem, MeeVee and Veoh. As those of you who have been following my previous posts know, I believe syndication is a critical engine in driving the advertising business model, which itself is the key to broadband video succeeding. As a result, I follow these syndication deals closely.

I've previously been critical of MTVN which appeared reluctant about syndicating its content when it launched its DailyShow.com destination site. However, with its recent deal with AOL, and now these five deals, it appears that MTVN does in fact believe syndication is the way to go. As one of the biggest cable network groups, MTVN is a key barometer for other networks' moves, so I view this as a real positive for the market.

Panasonic/Google - In this deal, Google and Matsushita announced that YouTube videos and Picasa photos would be directly accessible on new model Panasonic HDTVs launching in Q2 '08. Ordinarily I wouldn't be too excited about a deal like this, a permutation of which we've seen with other TV makers such as Sony.

Yet this one rises in potential importance because YouTube is not just the most popular video site - with 40% of all video traffic - but because Google is determined to turn YouTube into a platform for legitimate content distribution. This was underscored by the Sony mini-sode deal also announced this week, and the many partnerships YouTube has already struck with premium content providers. If successful (and there are many if's to be sure), YouTube would be far more than a scraggly collection of UGC. So, marry a broad-based premium video aggregator to HDTVs and you could see a new device/content model emerge.

BitTorrent device deals Netgear and D-Link - In a less publicized move, BitTorrent announced expanded deals with Netgear and D-Link covering a range of home networking products, with an emphasis on HD distribution. BitTorrent, which has been steadily legitimizing itself from its P2P file-sharing roots, has launched an aggressive SDK program called BitTorrent Device Partners, intended to permeate the market with its client software. BitTorrent also integrates easy access to its digital download store with these partners as well.

While I'm not very bullish about the market potential of bridge devices from companies like Netgear and D-Link, I do believe that P2P distribution has a real role to play in content distribution, especially for heavy HD files. I continue to see P2P as more of a "peer assist" play. To the extent that BitTorrent can continue getting its software into multiple devices, it gains validation and strengthens its potential to be a meaningful partner in the larger content distribution ecosystem.

Share your thoughts on these deals, and suggest others you think are noteworthy from CES!

With 2007 wrapping up, it's time to look ahead to the new year and make 6 predictions about what's ahead for broadband video in 2008. In general, I'm extremely optimistic about broadband's potential in the new year. To be sure, there are lots of challenges ahead, but much to look forward to.

Here's what my crystal ball is telling me:

1. Advertising business model gains further momentum.

Many of you have been hearing me beat this drum for a long time now; I'm just going to go right on beating it in 2008. Advertising is the primary business model for broadband video and this will only continue to grow in importance as the year goes along.

All the elements are falling in place for the ad model's momentum. In '08 we'll see more video consumption, especially of high-quality video, and more syndication, all of which will lead to more ad inventory. But 2008 is about more than just a quality and volume; it's also about better targeting, better formats, more sophisticated sales processes and more interactivity/community building around video. I'm impressed with the range of companies pursuing each of these areas and expect them to gain lots of traction.

2. Brand marketers jump on broadband bandwagon.

2007 marked the continuation of brand marketers creating their own broadband video-centric destinations, wrapped in increasingly clever campaigns. I track these initiatives very closely and wrote about many of them (Dell and Gap, Frito-Lay, Neiman-Marcus, Smirnoff, Dove, CIT, Campari, Universal Pictures, Showtime, etc.).

In 2008, we're going to see a proliferation of these direct-to-consumer broadband-centric marketing campaigns. Marketers and agencies across the board are coming to recognize how important broadband is for engaging their audiences in a way that TV spots simply can't match. Then factor in the high cost of TV and the rampant use of DVRs to ad-skip. I'm expecting lots of creativity from brand marketers in '08 as they push deeper into broadband, further pressuring the traditional TV ad business.

3. Beijing Summer Olympics is a broadband blowout.

NBC plans to stream an unprecedented 2,200 hours of live Olympics coverage at NBCOlympics.com. All of this is going to completely redefine how broadband adds new value to live sporting events. In particular, NBC's coverage is going to shine a very bright light on the appeal of broadband to deliver multiple simultaneous events in their entirety as they occur, instead of the usual chockablock, tape-delayed coverage. It's also going to demonstrate how well-suited broadband delivery is for niche but passionate audiences.

If NBC executes well, I think it has the potential to open up a whole new horizon in how broadband can augment (and in some cases, maybe even replace) broadcast coverage of sports events. For example, golf is a sport that cries out for improved coverage that broadband can offer. Instead of cutting back and forth to players' key shots, broadband would allow for cameras to stream all players' full rounds simultaneously, with fans able to watch just their favorite player, while also keeping an eye on the main feed. Bottom line, the '08 Olympics is going to show sports and live events producers everywhere what broadband can offer them too.

4. 2008 is the "Year of the broadband presidential election."

What TV was to the 1960 presidential campaign is what broadband is going to be to the '08 campaign. Broadband's impact has already been felt. Virginia Gov. George Allen's campaign was aborted after he was caught uttering a racial slur in his classic "YouTube moment." CNN has already hosted joint debates with YouTube. Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy in a video posted on her web site and also just launched TheHillaryIKnow.com with a passel of video testimonials about her softer side. Barack Obama's web site brims with video from the trail.

In '08 broadband video will be interweaved into the fabric of the major candidates' campaigns. It won't be an augment, it will be a central feature for reaching voters, particularly young ones. Broadband offers an unprecedented inexpensive way to convey the candidates' emotions and connect with voters. Presidential campaigning will never be the same again.

5. WGA strike fuels broadband video proliferation.

As the writers' strike slogs on, it is inevitable that many writers and producers (especially below the top tier) are going to look upon broadband as an attractive new medium to ply their trade. The signs are already there. It will be an ironic twist that the strike, which is centered on reallocating "new media" revenues, is going to stoke more interest in broadband productions, but outside the traditional apparatus.

I can't put my finger on exactly how this is going to unfold, but I think I can say with confidence that there is a lot of smart money eager to place bets on broadband video content. Writers and producers with track records and plausible plans will get funded. Quarterlife, Next New Networks, FunnyOrDie are all pre-strike examples of this. The strike only accelerates things.

6. Broadband consumption remains on computers, but HD delivery proliferates.

I wrote about this in detail just last week: regrettably broadband video is NOT coming to the masses' TVs any time soon. My guess is that 99.9% of users who start the year watching broadband video on their computers (or mobile devices in some cases) will end the year no closer to watching broadband on their TVs. Some initiatives will gain some ground, but on the whole, don't expect any mass adoption of devices or mechanisms to converge broadband with TVs in '08.

Nonetheless, do expect that HD or near HD-quality broadband video is going to proliferate in '08. A survey I worked on with a client, whose results will be shared in early '08, will attest to strong content provider interest in HD broadband video. That means that viewer experiences are only going to improve, and for those with big monitors and/or easy chairs, it may actually start to feel like this whole connect-the-computer-to-the-TV is unnecessary anyway.

So there you have it. Post a comment and let me know if you agree or disagree!

Driving home yesterday I caught a pretty interesting interview on NPR with Quarterlife's co-creator Marshall Herskovitz. It's only about 15 minutes, but the last 1/3 is quite insightful as Herskovitz expounds on the problems with today's Hollywood system and what he and partner Edward Zwick are doing with Quarterlife and NBC. You can listen to it here.

Metacafe continues to march to the beat of its own drummer and with around 30 million unique visitors/month, do quite well at it. It steadfastly refuses to be lumped in as yet another "UGC/video-sharing" site, instead considering itself an online entertainment destination that is focused on short-form programming largely selected by an elaborate community-based selection process.

Last week I caught up with CEO Erick Hachenburg to get an update on the business and more particulars about how the community acts as the site's content curator. Erick asserts that no other site does community curation as deeply as Metacafe and I'm inclined to agree with him. With this community emphasis and short-form focus, Metacafe presents yet another example of how broadband is re-shaping consumers' video choices and expectations.

Metacafe maintains a volunteer panel of about 80,000 users, a small subset of which receives alerts to review each new video submission to the site. Their opinions and behavior determine which ones make it onto the site, and get elevated to prominent positions. Metacafe's "VideoRank" algorithm takes account not only of the panel's ratings for each video, but also the specifics of each panelist's behavior with the video. This includes things like: how often was the video watched and forwarded to friends, each session's length and other factors that proxy for the video's quality.

The result of this process is that only a very small percentage of video submissions actually make it onto the site, dramatically enhancing the quality. The community is also very adept at weeding out pirated material. These two features alone distinguish Metacafe from sites in the UGC/video sharing space.

Erick believes a key driver of all behavior is the "cultural difference in the ecosystem" of Metacafe's users and producers. Since Metacafe offers payments for top producers and the process for getting approved is well-understood, there is a strong incentive for producers to put their best material forward. Between Metacafe's community-based editorial process and policy not to fund any content development, it's really a sink-or-swim environment for producers looking to succeed.

True to its short-form orientation, the average video length is just 90 seconds, and the top producers have come to understand which categories or genres perform best. For example, the top producer focuses exclusively on "entertaining how-to" videos.

Erick believes that Metacafe's combined focus on video and social media/interactivity makes it a very appealing environment for brand advertisers who have largely stayed away from sponsoring the UGC sites. While it's still testing formats, the company is heavily focused on overlays, with very short pre-roll introductory ads used sporadically. Proving that its programming model can be monetized will be a key focus for '08.

If successful, I'd bet on Metacafe becoming a certain acquisition target for a traditional media company looking to sink its roots further into the broadband video space.

I'm very jazzed about an initiative being announced this morning by XONtv.tv and Gotuit Media Corp available at http://www.xontv.tv/(Xtreme Outdoor Network, a broadband programmer).

If you're sitting on a video archive and looking to monetize it more fully with an immersive broadband user experience, it's well worth checking out.

I have been very bullish on broadband's ability to create libraries of searchable segments carved out of longer-form programming. That's one of the reasons I was excited about Comedy Central's recent launch of TheDailyShow.com, which is packed with 19,000 clips from all of the show's episodes. However, Comedy Central 'fessed up that it took a team of 16 working double shifts over many months to create the site's clip library. This labor intensity shows that monetizing an archive has been a non-trivial pursuit.

And that's where Gotuit's solution comes in. Yesterday I got an update from Patrick Donovan, their VP of Marketing, about the XONtv deal.

First, to understand Gotuit (to which I am a minor advisor), the company has created an indexing work flow platform that allows entry-level staffers to quickly churn out clips using metadata guidelines developed by the specific content provider. Each segment has a title, a text description, a series of customizable preset attributes (or tags), thumbnails and time-code start/stop points.

One thing that's critical to understand is that Gotuit-powered clips are really "virtual clips." When a user accesses a clip, the Gotuit platform is making an XML call to the CDN to begin streaming from the original video file at the time-code starting point. So no new tangible clip asset has actually been created in the Gotuit workflow. That means that unlike TheDailyShow.com, which now has 19,000 new assets to manage (likely created using standard video editing software), with Gotuit, there are new no "assets", just files with metadata descriptors. Needless to say, this approach drastically simplifies ongoing management, especially for content providers with vast libraries. By following the metadata guidelines, playlists can be created which allow multiple entry points into each video segment.

XOXtv partnered with Gotuit as a service provider, shipping Gotuit 300+ hours of XONtv's video programming. Gotuit took about 1 1/2 weeks to crank out all the clips. At the XONtv site you'll see 13 "channels", each of which is then sub-divided into programs, "episodes" and the segments themselves. All content is in the clear right now, soon XONtv will be pursuing a subscription-based business model.

Other benefits of the Gotuit approach include no buffering, full-screen option, embedding, bandwidth detection and sequential play-out. All of this means a more immersive experience, driving more viewership and value. On the monetization side, Gotuit has integrated with a number of broadband ad management/servers, and obviously offers rich targeting against specific segments otherwise unavailable. Alternatively, as XONtv intends, paid models are also supported.

Gotuit can work as a service bureau for the content provider or license the platform and let the content provider use their own resources to index their video. (I happen to believe this would be a perfect off-shore project, with the right training). In either service bureau or license model Gouit charges an ongoing platform fee plus usage fees tied usually tied to video consumption. Beyond XONtv, Gotuit has announced deals with Fox Reality, SI.com, NHL.com and others.

The XONtv implementation is a great reminder of how broadband enables deeper user engagement, business model flexibility and re-use opportunities never before possible. Wrap a robust social/community-building suite around this and the value proposition for content providers becomes even stronger.

Does TV programming beget broadband video programming or is it the other way around?

If you were expecting a simple answer, recent evidence suggests that none will be forthcoming. Step away from the relatively straightforward model of streamed or downloaded TV episodes, and the question of how original video content will be produced and distributed between broadband and TV is whole lot more complicated. Layer on the writers' strike and the world only fogs up further.

For those who see broadband as a pathway to TV, Quarterlife's deal announced last Friday with NBC to bring their new Quarterlife series to the network following its run on MySpace offers encouragement that Internet programming can move to the TV (bear in mind that Quarterlife was originally pitched as a TV series however).

Another example is TMZ.com, which has been successfully syndicated as TMZ TV this fall by Warner Bros. TMZ shows us that a brand that was created and built solely online can make the leap to TV. And just last week TV Week reported that Twentieth Television and Yahoo were close to a deal to create a new syndicated series based on popular broadband videos that they've collected.

On the flip side, there is plenty of evidence of opportunities for TV programs spinning off broadband programming, or existing TV producers with assets and skills pushing into broadband as a first outlet for their work.

Consider Sony's Minisode Network, with distribution on MySpace, Joost, AOL and Crackle. In an effort to squeeze more life out of its library of classics, in June Sony launched abbreviated versions, for broadband "snacking". This initiative is being closely watched as a model for how to repurpose existing assets to make them more palatable for attention-challenged online audiences.

And Endemol's recent deal with Bebo to produce "The Gap Year" series for exclusively for Bebo's audience shows that a successful TV producer is turning its sites on broadband as a first outlet.

All of these deals underscore broadband's disruptive nature - its ability to create new opportunities for incumbent players, and also for new entrants. My read is that most (though not all) broadband producers would love to make the leap to the TV. In the mean time, broadband offers a low-cost, interactive distribution path to experiment with more engaged audiences.

One of the things I really enjoy about being an analyst in the burgeoning broadband video industry is getting first-hand exposure to all the clever innovation that's going on. I find it endlessly fascinating to hear directly from entrepreneurs on the front lines where the kernel of their idea came from which led to their business plan. A user experience issue? A technology deficiency? A business model flaw? Over the years I've heard many stories. Some kernels have real weight, while some don't quite resonate for me.

Magnify.net falls into the former category. My read is that this is a company trying to solve a real problem with a very clever solution and the right "corporate attitude" to make it a likely winner.

Magnify is actually solving a number of real problems, many of which relate to the highly distributed or "Long Tail" nature of the Internet and broadband video. First is that while consumers love broadband video, finding what they want is problematic. Novelty quickly turns to frustration when rummaging through big video sharing sites to find something relevant. No matter how much users want choice, some level of editorial or "curation" is essential to optimize their experience.

Magnify enables existing enthusiast or vertical web sites (whether independent or major media) to obtain video from the best video sharing sites (YouTube, Metacafe, etc.) and coherently present a screened assortment to their users. The sites' use their editorial skills to sort the wheat from the chafe, with easy-to-use admin tools ensuring that no offending video slips through the cracks.

So the second problem Magnify solves is enabling thousands (17,500 and counting to be exact) of sites to provide quality video to their users without the hassle and expense of creating it themselves (the "matchmaker" role). These sites get 50% of the revenue from the ads Magnify sells around the video (or they can keep up to 50% of the inventory to sell themselves), leveraging their audience and subject matter expertise. Incorporating video into web sites is becoming online table stakes. I agree with Steve, in the years ahead, sites without video are going to look "charming".

The only real hole I can find in Magnify's model is that it doesn't currently compensate the content creators themselves (a la Revver for example). However I'd expect that to change as creators upload directly to Magnify and the company's network and traffic builds out over time.

Lastly, I like Steve's attitude. He views the market as an incredibly expanding pie, and not "winner take all." As a result, while there are others who touch on Magnify's space (Brightcove, ROO, VideoEgg, Ning, KickApps, etc.), he's less concerned about competition per se and matching feature-for-feature, but rather on responding to the needs and wants expressed directly by their own user base. Companies that do this ultimately win, regardless of competition.

The Magnify story plays into a number of areas I follow closely - the changing role and power of video distributors, the continued "nichification" of video, the challenge of video discovery and the reliance on ads, not subscription fees. To the extent that their approach succeeds it will further morph traditional video models. For a 10 person company that's only done an angel round, they've accomplished a lot in addressing genuine Long Tail issues in the broadband video industry. (Btw, TechCrunch has 2 great reviews, here and here).

Herb Scannell, who was on my CTAM panel yesterday pointed me to "Internet People" part of his firm's Channel Federator "Meth Minute 39" series (side note, it's actually quite clunky to try to adapt traditional TV lingo to describe broadband video properties...). If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend. It's like a stroll down the Internet's memory lane. All the famous and infamous characters over the years.

What's impressive about Internet People how it shows how fluid creative development and partnerships around broadband video (especially animation) is. Herb said that his partner at NNN was exposed to Dan Meth's "Hebrew Crunk" animation and that spurred them to work together. They had a similar philosophy and were able to figure out a relationship quickly. Also, I asked Herb how long he estimated it took to create Internet People..he thought less than 100 hours probably. And NNN coordinated to premier Internet People on YouTube, helping drive 800K views in the first week.

Pretty impressive, see for yourself.

Today I moderated a spirited discussion panel at CTAM NY’s annual Blue Ribbon Breakfast at Gotham Hall in NYC. The title was "Over the Top TV....Can Broadband Video Be Cable's Newest Opportunity?" We had an amazing group of panelists (click here to see list and listen to podcast) and with 450+ attendees a packed house as well.

A key question we dug into was whether and to what extent cable’s traditional (and highly successful) paid subscription model will be impaired by the rise of broadband video usage. Try as I did to see if any of the panelists believe that it will, none would admit to it. The reasons given included, "some form of a paid model will always exist but will never succumb entirely to a free, ad-supported model" to "cable networks won’t push broadband video distribution of their programs so hard as to upset the current model of receiving affiliate fees from cable operators", to "the low probability that inexpensive PC-to-TV bridge devices will proliferate any time soon" to "viewers have shown that they want a selection of channels to browse."

While I think each of these answers is quite legitimate, my point of view is that we are in the early days of an fundamental transformation in the video (and indeed the media more generally) business that will eventually (though of course who knows when and to what eventual degree) see most, if not all programming get unbundled into a fully on-demand paradigm.

I believe the ultimate answer to how cannibalistic broadband is toward cable ultimately turns on whether consumers believe it’s a "zero sum" game, meaning they choose between EITHER accessing programs via a VOD or DVR offering only available if they’ve bought into a monthly multi-channel video subscription (that’s to say the way the world works today) OR if they opt out of that subscription offering and INSTEAD choose to buy these programs a la carte, or receive them free, courtesy of a highly targeted ad model. The opt out option would of course be available through open broadband video distribution.

All trends point to the latter ultimately prevailing. While cable operators are well-positioned to shift their models to exploit this behavior if they act aggressively, they are also vulnerable to it if they don’t. The most important driver of the "opt out" scenario is that for an increasingly larger portion of our society, their behavior and expectations are formed by the Internet. And the ‘net is a completely personalizable and on demand medium. Especially for most online media, it is also mainly free, or paid on a fully a la carte basis (e.g. iTunes). Users’ expectations are through the roof and only getting higher. As broadband proliferates they will bring these same expectations to their decision-making.

Is it really realistic to believe that in 5 years when today’s MySpace/Facebook/YouTube/iTunes crazed 16 year old kid goes to set up his/her first apartment, s/he is going to embrace the notion of subscribing to a hundred channel package just so s/he can watch a handful of programs on demand? And of course, the ‘net’s behavior change isn’t confined to kids, it’s pervasive across all age groups.

Cable operators have an outstanding opportunity to capitalize on these macro behavioral trends. But doing so will require cable operators to make a significant and risky departure from their traditional subscription-based business models. It’s a classic incumbent’s dilemma. It will be interesting to see if they can do so.

Well, it seems to me that the same type of vast selection is coming to the world of video. For example, a number of recent broadband video-related announcements have further convinced me that we are on the cusp of experiencing an explosion in the quantity of high-quality video available and choices we’re all offered.