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VideoNuze-TDG Report Podcast #137 - Debating DOJ's New Cable Investigation
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 137th edition of the VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast.
First up this week, Colin and I discuss this week's news that the Department of Justice is investigating whether cable TV companies are acting to suppress online video. As I wrote on Wednesday, it's good for the government to be vigilant, but for now anyway I don't believe online video providers or consumers are being impacted (rather I suggested if the DOJ wants to address a REAL way consumers are being harmed it should look into the multi-billion dollar per year subsidy non sports fans are forced to pay for expensive sports networks).
Colin disagrees with me. As he's stated in the past, he believes the use of "private networks" to deliver video traffic to connected devices that doesn't count against data caps creates preferred broadband lanes and are inappropriate (Colin believes Comcast is doing this with its recent plan to deliver video services to the Xbox).
Wrapping up, Colin shares observations from Cisco Live a big analyst event he attended earlier this week and I do some shameless plugging for next Tuesday's VideoNuze Online Video Advertising Summit.
Click here to listen to the podcast (20 minutes, 36 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Broadband ISPs, Cable TV Operators, Podcasts, Regulation
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Here's The REAL Problem DOJ Should Be Focusing On In Its New Cable Probe
The WSJ has broken a big story this morning that the Department of Justice is apparently pursuing an antitrust investigation into whether cable TV companies are taking steps to limit the rise of online video usage. The DOJ is primarily looking into the role of data caps, the use of private networks for delivery of certain programming to connected devices, the use of TV Everywhere authentication, and even the model of most-favored nations clauses between cable TV networks and pay-TV distributors.
While it's generally a good thing for the government to keep an eye on how business is conducted (the recent financial crisis demonstrates what happens when it doesn't), to my mind none of these issues are really hurting consumers, yet anyway. Rather, if the government truly wanted to focus on an immediate, huge, and worsening consumer problem in the pay-TV business, it should be focused squarely on sports, and more specifically the multi-billion dollar annual subsidy that non-sports fans are required to pay due to current cable network bundling practices.Categories: Broadband ISPs, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Comcast, DOJ, NBC, Sanford Bernstein
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #135 - Verizon's Speedy Broadband, TiVo's Stream, Apple TV, Tom Brady
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 135th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for June 1, 2012. This week we cover 3 different topics: Verizon's announcement of ultra-fast new broadband service tiers (up to 300 mbps); TiVo's new "Stream" companion device which will allow 1-click video downloading to iOS devices and the fresh rumors around Apple introducing a television following CEO Tim Cook's interview at the D10 conference this week. We wrap up on a light-hearted note - the hilarious video from Funny or Die for Under Armour, "Tom Brady's Wicked Accent."
Click here to listen to the podcast (20 minutes, 11 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Broadband ISPs, Devices, Podcasts
Topics: Apple TV, Funny or Die, TiVo, Verizon
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Surveying the Video Landscape with BTIG's Media Analyst Rich Greenfield [VIDEO]
At last week's Cable Show, BTIG's media analyst Rich Greenfield and I sat down for a wide-ranging discussion of what's happening in the online video, broadband and pay-TV industries. If you're not familiar with Rich's work, his blog posts (note: registration required) are required reading for anyone in the business. I'm a big fan and always learn something new from them.
In our discussion we talk about a number of topics that Rich has written extensively about: why broadband ISPs should price on speed, not usage, why TV networks should get over it with Dish Network's new Auto Hop feature, why Aereo is so disruptive and yes, legal and why we'll see a "virtual" multichannel distributor emerge soon. Rich also shares thoughts on TV Everywhere's challenges, Disney/ESPN's big out-of-home opportunities, the role of escalating sports rights fees, Apple's plans for a TV, and what's ahead in the video industry. Watch the video (26 minutes, 47 seconds).Categories: Broadband ISPs
Topics: BTIG
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Comcast's CEO Roberts Downloads 23 Episodes of 30 Rock in 1.39 Minutes at 1Gbps
At the Cable Show in Chicago today, Comcast's CEO Brian Roberts showcased the company's ability to deliver 1 gigabit per second throughput by downloading a full season of 23 episodes of 30 Rock in just 1 minute, 39 seconds. Putting the 1 Gbps throughput in context, Roberts noted that back in 1996, delivering 1-2 megabits per second was state of the art, and that as recently as 2007, 100 megabits per second was the limit.
Increasing speed has been a core value proposition of cable's broadband ISP efforts for years. It has taken on even greater importance recently as consumption of high-quality video has soared. An emerging theme in the pay-TV industry is delivering not just on-demand streams, but full lineups of live TV over IP as well. All of this will drive ever-higher consumer needs for bandwidth.
Categories: Broadband ISPs, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Comcast
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Why Cord-Cutting May Actually Be Good News for Cable Operators After All
Yesterday's big headlines - that Netflix now accounts for almost 30% of all downstream Internet traffic - is further evidence of the popularity of the company's streaming service, and also a preview of the significant structural changes that lie ahead in the over-the-top (OTT), broadband ISP, and pay-TV industries. Specifically, as Netflix and other OTT providers' surging traffic compels broadband ISPs to administer strict bandwidth usage caps and adopt usage based pricing ("UBP"), the stage will be set for a new era in how tens of millions of consumers decide which in-home entertainment services they subscribe to. If you thought that would be very bad news for cable operators specifically, it might be time to think again.
Cable operators and programming networks are the focal point of upcoming change. Operators in particular, because they are both the largest providers of both subscription video services and broadband Internet services, are really at center stage. Much of the hype around "cord-cutting" over the last year has implied they are on the losing end of this potential activity. Often overlooked however, is the fact that as consumption shifts to OTT sources, consumers' bandwidth needs escalate. As such, the door opens for them to institute UBP, as AT&T has recently done.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Netflix
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Comcast Rolls Out 105 Mbps Tier; Is This a Glimpse of the Future?
Comcast is officially rolling out 105 Mbps residential broadband Internet service this morning, dubbed "Extreme 105 Xfinity Internet." The service is available to more than 40 million homes in the U.S. and also features 10
Mbps upstream speed. Initial promotional pricing is $105/mo when bundled with triple play (voice, video, Internet) or $200/mo standalone. Comcast told me that post-promotion pricing hasn't been determined yet, with various price points being tested.
With Extreme 105, Comcast becomes the latest broadband ISP to introduce speedier tiers for higher monthly fees. Although I haven't seen any research yet that breaks down how many broadband subscribers have migrated to these premium tiers, for now the amount is probably relatively small. However, that could change fast, as an extremely interesting substitution dynamic between video service and broadband service starts to take hold.
Categories: Broadband ISPs
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Ohio University Clamps Down on Students' Netflix Use
How popular is Netflix among college students? Apparently so much that Ohio University, a 32,000 student campus, this week imposed a bandwidth cap on its students of a puny 5 MB when it found that 60% of its bandwidth was being
used for entertainment purposes, 28% of which was for Netflix (I think that means that 17% of bandwidth was being used for Netflx). The situation had gotten so bad that students and faculty weren't able to access the web-based curriculum management system. Much as I'm a fan of Netflix streaming, it's good to see OU trying to get its students back to hitting the books. Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs
Topics: Netflix, Ohio University
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Still No Consensus On Broadband ISP Usage Cap Policies
AT&T made big headlines this week for unveiling a plan to cap monthly usage by its DSL subscribers at 150GB and its U-Verse subscribers at 250GB. Whereas other broadband ISPs like Comcast have long had a 250GB cap in place, what's different about AT&T's plan is that it is proactively saying it will charge $10 for every 50GB users exceed the limit. Other ISPs have tended to use the cap solely as a mechanism for throttling the tiny portion of users who exceed the cap, rather than as a way of generating extra revenue.
Categories: Broadband ISPs
Topics: AT&T, Comcast, FCC, Netflix, Verizon
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House Republicans' Assault on Net Neutrality Begins Next Week
Republicans on Capitol Hill will start their long-stated attempts to overturn the FCC's net neutrality regulations next Wednesday, with the House Communications & Technology Subcommittee planning a hearing. House Republicans have made no secret of their scorn for the FCC's net neutrality regulations and seem committed to doing whatever's necessary to block them from taking effect. While I've often said that net neutrality is a solution in search of a problem, the FCC's rules are actually not very burdensome, and to the extent that broadband ISPs abide by them, it feels unlikely that they would be expanded any time soon. Still, Republicans view this as an overreach by the government. It will be interesting to see how strongly Senate Democrats and President Obama come to net neutrality's defense, given all the other things competing for their attention.
Categories: Broadband ISPs, Regulation
Topics: FCC, Net Neutrality
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Comcast's Roberts: "What used to be called 'reruns' on television is now called Netflix."
An interview with Comcast's CEO Brian Roberts in today's WSJ has an instantly classic quote that will no doubt be making the rounds. In responseto the interview question, "Do you feel pressure from the growing number of deals Netflix Inc. is striking with content owners, including, recently, CBS?" Roberts responded, "What used to be called 'reruns' on television is now called Netflix." Ouch!
Of course, Roberts, and other pay-TV executives, have taken great pains to assert that new over-the-top services aren't competing with their core video subscription services. Those assertions came under fire last year as the pay-TV industry lost subscribers for the 2nd and 3rd quarters, leading to wildly over-hyped predictions of cord-cutting, which have abated as 4th quarter subscriber losses improved. Still, there's no denying that Netflix, which added almost 8 million subscribers in 2010 to surpass 20 million, has a lot of momentum and eventually could be viewed as part of pay-TV substitute package. Come early April, when Q1 '11 results are released and Netflix almost certainly edges out Comcast to be the largest video subscription service in the U.S., the Netflix luster will only grow further.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable TV Operators
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Jan. 10th
Even though I was very focused this week on the CES "takeaways" series, there was still plenty of news happening in the online and mobile video industries. So as in the past, I'm pleased to offer VideoNuze's end-of-week feature highlighting 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week. Enjoy!
Level 3 fights on in Comcast traffic dispute
Level 3 is showing no signs of relenting on its accusations that Comcast is unfairly trying to charge the CDN for Internet traffic it delivers to Comcast's network. In an interview this week, Level 3 said it may use the "Open Internet" provisions of the FCC's new network neutrality rules to press its case. Level 3's challenge is coming at the 11th hour of the FCC's approval process of the Comcast-NBCU deal; it's not really clear if Level 3 is having any impact on slowing the approval, which appears imminent.
Comcast-NBCU deal challenged over online video proposal
Speaking of challenges to the Comcast-NBCU deal, word emerged this week that Disney is voicing concern over the FCC's proposed deal condition that would force Comcast to offer NBC programming to any party that had concluded a deal with one of NBC's competitors for online distribution. The Disney concern appears to be that the condition would have an undue influence on how the online video market evolves and how Disney's own deals would be impacted. While the FCC should be setting conditions to the deal, the Disney concerns highlights how, in a nascent, fast-moving market like online video, government intervention can cause unintended side effects.
YouTube is notching 200 million mobile video views/day
As if on cue with my CES takeaway #3, that mobility is video's next frontier, YouTube revealed this week that it is now delivering 200 million mobile views per day, tripling its volume in 2010. That would equal about 6 billion views per month, which is remarkable. And that amount is poised to increase, as YouTube launched music video site VEVO for Android devices. YouTube clearly sees the revenue potential in all this mobile video activity; it also said that it would append a pre-roll ad in Android views for tens of thousands of content partners.
Google creates video codec dust-up
Google stirred up a hornet's nest this week by announcing that it was dropping support for the widely popular H.264 video codec in its Chrome browser, in favor of its own WebM codec, in an attempt to drive open standards. Though Chrome only represents about 10% market share among browsers (doubling in 2010 though), for these users, it means they'll need to use Flash to view non-WebM ended video. There are a lot of downstream implications of Google's move, but for space reasons, rather than enumerating them here, check out some of the great in-depth coverage the issue has received this week (here, here, here, here).
Netflix usage drives up Canadian broadband bills
An interesting test of Canadian Netflix streaming showed that a user there might have to pay an incremental $12/month under one ISP's consumption cap. That would be more than the $7.99/mo that the Netflix subscription itself costs, leading to potential cord-shaving behavior. This type of upcharge hasn't become an issue here in the U.S. because even ISPs that have caps have set them high relative to most users' current consumption. But if streaming skyrockets as many think it will, and the FCC allows usage-based billing, this could fast become a reality in the U.S. as well.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, CDNs, Deals & Financings, International, Mobile Video, Regulation, Technology
Topics: Comcast, Disney, FCC, Google, Level 3, NBCU, Netflix, WebM, YouTube
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Online/Mobile Video's Top 10 of 2010
2010 was another spectacular year of growth and innovation in online and mobile video, so it's no easy feat to choose the 10 most significant things that happened during the year. However, I've taken my best shot below, and offered explanations. No doubt I've forgotten a few things, but I think it's a pretty solid list. As much as happened in 2010 though, I expect even more next year, with plenty of surprises.
My top 10 are as follows:
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Broadcasters, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Deals & Financings, Devices, Mobile Video, Regulation, Satellite, Technology, Telcos
Topics: 4G, Android, Apple, Google TV, iPad, Net Neutrality, Netflix, YouTube
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Net Neutrality: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?
Though the FCC passed new net neutrality rules yesterday, the fight is far from over. Republicans immediately vowed to block the rules when they take over the House in January, and threats of industry lawsuits flew. Even liberal supporters of net neutrality were unhappy that the rules didn't go far enough. While the rules are here today, whether they will be tomorrow is very much an open question.
While everyone agrees that a well-functioning Internet is core to American society and the economy, net neutrality's challenge from the start has been between those who believe in pre-emptive regulations because big ISPs can't be trusted, vs. those that don't see a sustained pattern of ISP misbehavior warranting proactive FCC involvement.
Categories: Broadband ISPs, Regulation
Topics: FCC, Net Neutrality
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Dec. 12th
Happy Friday. Once again I'm pleased to offer VideoNuze's end-of-week feature analyzing 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items from the week that we didn't have a chance to cover previously. This week I'm changing the format a little bit, creating an individual post for each item. I'm doing this in response to reader interest in being able to share individual items (not the whole group) more easily. Let me know what you think of the new format. Here they are:
1. Potential YouTube-Next New Networks deal is a bit of a head-scratcher
2. Here's a great example of why TV Everywhere matters so much to the pay-TV industry
3. Hulu's Kilar: "Hulu Plus now a material portion" of revenues
4. Google not ready to announce fiber winning communities
5. Tiffany shows online video works for luxury retailers
Read them now or check them out this weekend!Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Commerce, Deals & Financings, Indie Video, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: Google, Hulu Plus, Netflix, Next New Networks, Tiffany, YouTube
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Google Not Ready To Announce Fiber Winning Communities
Google broke months of radio silence on its 1 gbps fiber to the home experiment this week just to mention that it's still not ready to announce where the next generation network will be deployed. No surprise, Google has been inundated with interest, from almost 1,100 communities around the U.S.
This week's update was penned by Milo Medin, who was a key architect of the @Home broadband network (remember them?). That's an encouraging sign that Google is adding the expertise to help make this fiber project a success. In my original reactions to the project, one of my chief concerns was that Google had bitten off more than it could chew on the network and in-home installation/customer service fronts. Google will need to add further experienced people in these areas to improve the odds of success in achieving its goals (though it's still not exactly clear what its goals are with this project).Categories: Broadband ISPs
Topics: Google
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6 Key 2011 Trends in Online and Mobile Video
Yesterday Colin Dixon from The Diffusion Group and I presented a webinar describing our 6 key trends for 2011 in online and mobile video. Colin is one of the sharpest analysts of the pay-TV and online/mobile video industries and we had no shortage of ideas to sort through. Our list is a joint effort, and during the webinar we each presented the 3 trends we felt the strongest about. In today's post I share and explain each one. At the end of the webinar we conducted a poll asking attendees whether they agreed or disagreed with our predictions. I've noted those results in bold font. If you want to download the slides and/or hear more of our detailed discussion, just register for the on-demand version of the webinar and you'll be emailed a link.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable TV Operators, Mobile Video, Predictions, Regulation, Satellite, Technology, Telcos
Topics: FCC, Google, Net Neutrality, Netflix, TV Everywhere
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Nov. 29th
Following the Thanksgiving break last Friday, VideoNuze's end-of-week feature of curating 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week, is back. Read them now or take them with you this weekend!
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Devices, Mobile Video, Regulation, Telcos, UGC
Topics: Comcast, FCC, IDC, Level 3, Magid, Net Neutrality, Nielsen, Verizon Wireless, Viacom, YouTube
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Level 3 Tries to Wrap Itself in the Cloak of Net Neutrality in Comcast Dispute
The phrase, "there's no such thing as a free lunch" is getting a new application this morning, as Netflix's massively popular streaming service and over-the-top online video delivery in general face their first big reality check in the form of the Level 3-Comcast traffic fee dispute.
In case you aren't fully up to speed yet, yesterday Level 3 issued a press release asserting that Comcast was forcing Level 3 to pay it higher rates in order for its traffic to be passed through to Comcast's network, and by extension its subscribers. On this basis alone, this would be a snoozer dispute; few of us are aware of or care about the behind the scenes Internet plumbing that enables the delivery of online content. And as long as it doesn't affect what we pay, we also generally don't care which provider gets paid what or how much.
That's why Level 3 cleverly decided not to depict this as a commercial dispute, but rather as a violation by Comcast of "net neutrality" regulations. To drive its point home further, it chose to use highly-charged language, accusing Comcast of "putting up a toll booth," "enabling it to unilaterally decide," "threatens the open Internet" and "preventing competing content" among other things. These are exactly the kinds of terms that net neutrality advocates have been using for years to justify new, stricter net neutrality regulations and Level 3's choice of words is a blatant play to transform this into a net neutrality spark. Trying to set the record straight, Comcast replied that in fact this is a commercial dispute, centered around an imbalance of traffic being exchanged (5:1 by its estimate), and that by convention a separate payment from Level 3 is warranted.
Categories: Broadband ISPs
Topics: Comcast, Level 3, Netflix
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Oct. 25th
Lots more happened this week in online/mobile video, and so to make your lives easier, VideoNuze is once again curating 5-6 interesting industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week. Read them now or take them with you this weekend!
No Longer 'Must-See TV'
The WSJ reported this week that Thursday night TV viewership (live or recorded) among 18-49 year-olds is down 4.3% this season to 48.5 million, a drop of 2.2 million viewers. For this age group, the drop across all nights (live or recorded) is 2.7%. While the decreases have immediate implications on networks' ad revenue, the bigger issue of course is what the drops say about shifting consumer preferences. For example, I continue to hear anecdotes about users with connected devices now tuning in first to their Instant Watch queues instead of channel surfing or visiting their DVR libraries or VOD. The Nielsen data corroborates other data (here, here) about the decline of TV viewing, especially among young people, and is another reason why broadcast networks in particular should be embracing connected devices like Google TV, not blocking them.
CW Says Study 'Dispels Myth' About Aversion to Ads in Online Video
Speaking of networks and their online distribution, this week CW released some interesting new data that detailed extremely low abandonment rates for its shows consumed online, even with ad loads almost equal to those on-air. While it is too early to generalize, the data provides a very encouraging sign that networks may be able to achieve parity economics with on-air, even when they window their online releases for delayed availability. It's also an important sign that online video may be a firewall against DVR-based ad-skipping.
Comcast Launches Free Streaming Video Service Xfinity for All Digital Subs
In addition to releasing stellar Q3 earnings this week (albeit with a bigger-than-expected subscriber loss), Comcast also pulled the "beta" label off its Xfinity TV service this week, and relaxed its rules about who can gain access. Now any video subscriber, regardless of who they take their broadband Internet service from, can access XFTV.
Some began to speculate that it could be a precursor for Comcast allowing non-video subs to also gain access to XFTV. This is the concept I wrote about in over a year ago, in "How TV Everywhere Could Turn Cable Operators and Telcos Into Over-the-Top's Biggest Players." The idea is that TV Everywhere services like XFTV could be offered outside of Comcast's franchise areas to allow them to poach video subscribers from other pay-TV operators. It's still a fascinating concept, but nothing about Comcast's move this week suggests it's coming soon.
Insight To Bow 50-Mbps Internet In Two Markets
If you think all that Netflix and other long-form streaming is going to strain users' bandwidth, think again, as yet another cable operator/broadband ISP, 9th-largest Insight Communications unveiled plans for a speedy 50 megabit per second broadband tier. Big players like Comcast and Time Warner Cable have been offering this for a while already. It's still very pricey, but as some viewers shift more of their consumption to online and away from conventional TV viewing (see above), more bandwidth will be worth the price. Update - I missed this item, that over in the U.K. Virgin Media began taking sign-ups for a 100 Mbps broadband service. Net, net, last-mile bandwidth will keep expanding to meet increasing demand.
Promoted Videos hit half a billion views
Fresh evidence this week that YouTube is finding innovative ways to monetize its massive audience: the company's performance-based "Promoted videos" format achieved its 500 millionth view, just 2 years after being introduced. With Promoted videos, anyone uploading a video to YouTube (brand, content provider, amateur), can buy opportunities to have that video appear alongside relevant keyword-based searches in YouTube. It's a similar format to AdWords, and of course the video provider only pays when their video is actually clicked on. As I said recently, YouTube is becoming a much more important part of Google's overall advertising mix, while for many brands, YouTube's home page is fast-becoming the most desirable piece of online real estate.
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Comcast, CW, Insight, Nielsen, YouTube
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