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Why Albert Pujols is Over-the-Top's New Best Friend
When baseball great Albert Pujols signed a staggering 10-year, $254 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last week, he became
over-the-top's (OTT) new best friend. That's right, everyone including Netflix, Hulu, YouTube and Amazon, plus countless online-only content producers, should have been celebrating Pujols's new riches. Why? Because the Pujols deal is the latest example of how pay-TV seems determined to price itself out of reach for certain segments of the population, opening up a huge window for OTT to succeed.
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Indie Video, Satellite, Sports, Telcos
Topics: Albert Pujols, Angels, ESPN, FOX, Liberty Global, TNT
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So Far Fox is Alone Among Networks With Authenticated Pay-TV Window
With the fall TV season upon us, Fox is alone among broadcast networks in deciding to create an 8-day authentication window for pay-TV subscribers. In fact, NBC appears to be taking the opposite posture, announcing last Friday
that its iPad app would now include all the same episodes that it makes available online (and I've confirmed they'll all be available in the iPad next day as well). CBS hasn't announced any plans to change its distribution through its web site or TV.com. And despite some vague signals to the contrary by Disney CEO Bob Iger, ABC, which has been the leader among broadcast networks in embracing online/mobile distribution, hasn't announced any changes either.
Categories: Broadcasters
Topics: ABC, CBS, Comcast, FOX, NBC
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Fox's New 8-Day Window Obsoletes Hulu's Simple User Experience
If one of the things you liked most about Hulu has been its simple, straightforward user experience - where TV programs could be quickly found and viewed - then Fox's new 8-day authenticated pay-TV window is going to feel like a big hassle. And if ABC and NBC, Hulu's other broadcast content partners and owners, adopt a similar approach to Fox, then it's really going to feel like going back to the dark ages of user experience.
Fox's authentication window means that during the first 8 days after an episode's air date only current subscribers of certain pay-TV services (DISH Network for now) or Hulu Plus can watch that episode. That in turn means that when searching for a new episode on Hulu, the resulting experience will be quite different than it has been.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #106 - Fox's 8-Day Pay Window and Netflix's Q3 Churn - July 29, 2011
Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 106th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for July 29, 2011.
In this week's podcast, Daisy and I dive into two topics - Fox's new exclusive 8-day authentication window, and Netflix's Q3 '11 subscriber churn. Regarding Fox, this week the network announced that it would limit online access to programs in the first 8 days following their airing to viewers who are authenticated as pay-TV subscribers (or are Hulu Plus subscribers). As I wrote, I think the move has significant implications for Hulu, and the broader online video landscape. We discuss Fox's motivations, the role of retransmission consent fee payments and what might be coming next.
We then shift to discuss estimates of Netflix's Q3 '11 subscriber churn, due to its recent price change. By my calculations, Netflix itself is estimating it could lose approximately 6.5 million subscribers in the U.S. in Q3, which would be a record for the company. The amount attributable solely to the price change could be in the 2.5 - 3 million subscriber range. In the wake of all the speculation about how subscribers will react, Daisy discloses the surprising decision she and her family have made with regard to their Netflix subscription. Listen in to find out!
Click here to listen to the podcast (14 minutes, 34 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Podcasts
Topics: FOX, Hulu, Netflix, Podcast
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Fox Unveils Exclusive 8-Day Authenticated Window For Online Shows: Major Ouch For Hulu
Assuming Fox, one of Hulu's owners, was hoping to sell the site for top dollar, then you have to wonder about the consequences of a new plan it has announced to create an exclusive 8-day online viewing window solely for paying
subscribers of authorized distributors. The new plan is a major endorsement of pay-TV operators' TV Everywhere approach and could be the first salvo by broadcast TV networks in curtailing free online access to their programs. DISH Network is the first pay-TV operator to sign up for the new Fox plan.
For Hulu, the move would appear to be a double whammy. A key part of Hulu.com's value proposition and its ability to drive huge traffic was offering next-day access to select programs from its parent broadcast networks. Under the new plan, users would lose coveted free next-day access (plus a week) unless they were authenticated. Less traffic of course means less advertising revenue.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
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4. Comcast Gets Hit Shows from FOX and ABC for Xfinity TV
This week brought yet another twist in the intriguing relationships between pay-TV operators and broadcast TV networks, as Comcast announced deals with both FOX and ABC to add recent episodes of over 20 hit shows from the networks to its Xfinity TV video-on-demand line-up. The move is a solid step forward for Comcast, giving it access to all 4 major broadcast networks' programs, a first. This is also content that isn't available on Netflix, providing another good differentiator.
Categories: Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, Video On Demand
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Premium VOD is a Train Wreck Though It Just Doesn't Matter
Yesterday marked the official launch of "Premium VOD" by DirecTV, a plan under which movies will be released just 60 days after their theatrical opening (half the usual time) for 48-hour rental by subscribers for $30. The first movie being offered this way, which DirecTV dubs "Home Premiere," was Sony Pictures' "Just Go With It" starring Adam Sandler. Three other studios, Warner Bros., Universal Pictures and Fox have already signaled their intent to release movies on Premium VOD with DirecTV and other pay-TV operators who have expressed interest.
Theater owners and the Hollywood creative community are livid about Premium VOD, which they perceive as paving the road to cannibalizing theatrical attendance which would in turn harm a movie's overall economics, creating a dangerous downward spiral. In addition, there's concern that if consumers switch to watching movies on the small screen then the creative license implicit in a big screen emphasis will get squeezed. While their concerns are completely justified, the good news for them is that Premium VOD will be lucky to achieve even minimal success. Instead it will more than likely end up being a short-lived experiment that will have virtually no impact on larger Hollywood dynamics. Here's why:
Categories: FIlms, Studios, Video On Demand
Topics: DirecTV, FOX, Sony Pictures, Universal, Warner Bros.
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Hulu Also Making Move Into Original Video Production
While Netflix got a lot of attention this week for possibly moving to distribute an original TV series, "House of Cards," an interesting scoop in Adweek notesthat Hulu may also be looking to ramp up its original production efforts. According to the article, Hulu has been building two content groups, one focused on branded entertainment and the other on niche comedy and documentaries.
Categories: Aggregators, Branded Entertainment, Indie Video
Topics: ABC, FOX, Hulu, NBC, Netflix
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No Surprise, Ivi is Shut Down
Broadcasters got a win this week as a U.S. District Court judge issued a preliminary injunction against Ivi, requiring the service be shut down. The decision comes as little surprise, as Ivi's claim to being a cable system, and therefore entitled to a compulsory license to rebroadcast TV networks, seemed specious from the start. Though Ivi vows to appeal the decision, casting itself as consumers' savior, there's little reason to believe we'll see Ivi - at least in its current form - back any time soon. Moral here: just because the Internet makes it possible to rebroadcast networks, that still doesn't make it legal.
Categories: Broadcasters, Regulation
Topics: CBS, Cox, Disney, FOX, Ivi, MLB, NBC, PBS, WPIX
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Hulu Pulls IPO Due to Lack of Long-Term Content Rights
The WSJ is reporting that Hulu has pulled its widely-rumored plan for an initial public offering next year due to lack of long-term rights to distribute its three broadcast TV network owners' content. The WSJ says the company may look at other options to raise capital. Hulu's exclusive short-term distribution deals with owners ABC, FOX and NBC are the company's primary asset, and no doubt banks and other would-be investors closely scrutinized whether the rights would be extended.
As I wrote last April, from a content rights perspective, Hulu is getting squeezed from all sides. Pay-TV providers are ramping up their TV Everywhere rollouts and are trying to lock down online distribution rights themselves, sometimes as part of retransmission consent deals. The NBC rights in particular are subject to extra uncertainty longer-term as Comcast takes over the network. As the biggest subscription TV provider, which is rolling out its own online capabilities, Comcast has little incentive to support an online competitor.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: ABC, Comcast, FOX, Hulu, NBC, Netflix
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #80 - Nov. 19, 2010
Daisy Whitney and I are back this week for the 80th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for November 19, 2010. Before getting started, congratulations to Daisy on the release of "The Mockingbirds," her first fiction book, for young adult readers. It debuted 2 weeks ago and is published by Little Brown. In addition to writing the book, Daisy has put together a clever social media campaign which has lifted the book's visibility. Congrats Daisy!
This week Daisy and I discuss my post from yesterday, "Broadcast TV Networks Are Wrong to Block Google TV - Part 2" in which I laid out the case for why the networks are using a backwards-looking strategy in their decision to block their programs from access by Google TV and other browser-based connected devices.
To their credit, the networks have actually been quite forward-looking in releasing many of their programs for free viewing on their web sites and on Hulu. But now, by creating an artificial distinction between computer-based and TV-based viewing of online-delivered content, they are violating one of the most basic rules of the Internet era: don't create friction between the product and the customer. While that may help them win retransmission consent deals in the short term, I believe that in the long term it will hurt them. Listen in to learn more.
Click here to listen to the podcast (11 minutes, 43 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Broadcasters, Devices, Podcasts
Topics: ABC, CBS, FOX, Google TV, Hulu, NBC, Podcast
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Broadcast TV Networks Are Wrong to Block Google TV - Part 2
When Fox decided last week to block access to its programs by Google TV, it was no big surprise since its broadcast brethren ABC, CBS, NBC and Hulu had already done so. By speaking in a unanimous voice, the broadcasters have sent a clear signal that viewing their programs on TV, for free, via online delivery, is not to be. While they're happy to make Hulu Plus subscriptions available via connected devices, if you want to watch for free, you'll be restricted to computer, or limited mobile device-based, viewing.
A few weeks ago in the first part of "Broadcast Networks Are Wrong to Block Google TV," I speculated on what was motivating the broadcasters to block Google TV, boxee and other browser-based connected devices. In the case of Google TV, it's tempting to believe they are looking to extract payments from Google to distribute their programs. Another possible explanation is that programs aren't monetized as well in online as they are on-air (the "swapping analog dollars for digital pennies" argument). Yet another explanation is that measurement of online viewing is not yet fully mature, so they're worried that if their audience shifts to connected device-based viewing, it would hurt their ratings points, and consequently their ad revenues. But none of these are broadcasters' main motivation.
Categories: Broadcasters, Devices
Topics: ABC, CBS, FOX, Google TV, Hulu, NBC, Netflix
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As DVD Sales Wane, Experiments With Movies' Digital Delivery Windows Rise
Yesterday brought more evidence of how digital distribution release windows and promotions are rising as DVD sales wane. First there was news that Disney had teamed up with Wal-mart to allow buyers of the Toy Story 3 DVD to get a bonus digital version of the film playable through the company's recently acquired Vudu digital outlet. That offer was quickly one-upped by Amazon which announced an increase from 300 to 10,000 movies in its "Disc+" program, which provides a digital copy to the user's Amazon VOD account when they purchase a qualifying DVD.
Meanwhile at the Blu-con conference in Beverly Hills, studio executives debated how to best calibrate digital, VOD and DVD distribution. Even emerging practices come with exceptions and debates about results. For example, while VOD has largely gained day-and-date release with DVD, exceptions are still made on a case-by-case basis, such as with Universal's "Despicable Me" which will have its DVD go on sale on Dec 14, but its VOD release not until after Christmas.
Topics: Amazon, Apple, Best Buy, Disney, EPIX, FOX, Netflix, Sony, Starz, Universal, VUDU, Wal-Mart, Warner Bros.
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Cablevision is Now Offering to Reimburse Subscribers To Watch World Series on MLB.com
The Cablevision-Fox retransmission fight just took another ugly turn, as Cablevision is now emailing subscribers an offer (see below) to reimburse them $10 if they subscribe to the MLB.com's "Postseason.TV" package which includes the World Series starting tonight.
The gloves are clearly off in this fight, and Cablevision is obviously not hesitating to introduce its subscribers to the virtues of over-the-top streaming, which could have longer-term negative consequences. What comes next in this battle?
What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).Categories: Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, Sports
Topics: Cablevision, FOX, World Series
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Sept. 27th
It's Friday and that means that once again VideoNuze is featuring 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry stories that we weren't able to cover this week. Have a look at them now, or take them with you for weekend reading!
Nielsen Unveils New Online Advertising Measurement
comScore Introduces Digital GRP `Overnights` in AdEffx Campaign Essential
Dueling initiatives from Nielsen and comScore were announced on Monday, aimed at translating online usage into comparable TV ratings information, including reach, frequency and Gross Ratings Points (GRPs). While online video ad buying is ramping up, the tools to measure viewership in a comprehensive way have been lacking. This is one of the main issues holding back content providers from participating in TV Everywhere.
Analyst: Cord-cutting fears overblown
New research shared this week by BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield concludes that less than 8% of the market is actually interested in cord-cutting. The big impediment: losing access to sports and cable programming, which is unlikely to migrate to free over-the-top alternatives. Greenfield's conclusion is that cord-cutting isn't a major threat to pay-TV operators over the next 3-5 years. Notwithstanding the research, another factor I'd point to that could tip cord-cutting the other way is consumers' belt-tightening. Much as nobody wants to lose access to programming, if the price is perceived as too high, they'll make compromises.
Why YouTube Viewers Have ADD and How to Stop It
Abandonment rates for online video have always been a concern, and using new research, Visible Measures CMO Matt Cutler now quantifies the behavior. Expect 20% of the audience to drop out within 10 seconds of hitting play, 33% by the 30 second mark and 44% by 60 seconds in. Pretty sobering data but incredibly important in thinking about content creation and monetization.
Networks Have Sharing Issues With Hulu
Hulu's New Hoop
On the one hand, Hulu's network partners, ABC, NBC and Fox are reportedly pulling back ad inventory that Hulu is allowed to sell, yet on the other, Hulu is reportedly out aggressively selling ads in Hulu Plus, its subscription service. Meanwhile this week Hulu also announced that Hulu Plus will be accessible on both Roku devices and TiVo Premiere, as it continues chasing Netflix in the subscription game.
The New Apple TV Reviewed: It`s All About the Video
Apple TV devices started shipping this week, and reviews began popping up all over the web. This mostly positive review indicates that the user experience is solid, but that content selection is still skimpy. That's no surprise given how few deals Apple has struck to date. Yet to be seen is how Apple TV performs when it can access other iOS apps.Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Analytics, Broadcasters, Devices
Topics: ABC, Apple TV, comScore, FOX, Hulu, NBC, Nielsen, Visible Measures, YouTube
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Over 88% of Hulu Plus Content is Already Available for Free on Hulu.com
A new analysis of all the content available on Hulu Plus reveals that over 88% of all the full-length TV program episodes available in the $10/mo subscription service are already freely accessible on Hulu.com. For clips, it's almost 98%. Research firm One Touch Intelligence found that out of 28K+ episodes on Hulu Plus, just 3,345 of them can't also found on Hulu.com. Two-thirds of these incremental program episodes are sourced from Hulu's broadcast TV network partners/owners, ABC, Fox and NBC.
In fairness, Hulu Plus has been live for less than 60 days and will no doubt will be adding more content down the road. But for now the high proportion of free availability diminishes the Hulu Plus value proposition for Hulu.com
users considering an upgrade. In addition, the relatively small amount of incremental episodes risks inducing churn, particularly for heavy users most familiar with the service, as they come to realize much of what they've paid to watch is actually available for free. Compounding the problem, Hulu Plus viewers see the same quantity of ads as do free Hulu.com users, so there's no ad-avoidance benefit to subscribing either.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
Topics: ABC, FOX, Hulu, Hulu Plus, NBC, Netflix
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Is Apple Planning to Pair 99-Cent TV Show Rentals With Its $99 iTV?
Bloomberg is reporting that Apple is in "advanced talks" with CBS, Disney and Fox about making available TV programs for 99-cent rental. The programs would be offered within 24 hours of when they aired and once rented, the viewing window would be just 48 hours. It's not clear whether the iTunes rental model would be targeted only to Apple's "i" devices, or if it would be more widely available. If the program deals happen, could it be that Apple is planning to pair availability of 99-cent rentals with the unveiling of its $99 iTV device at its rumored Sept. 7th keynote event?
In my earlier post, "Pondering the (Potential) Impact of Apple's New iTV Device," I speculated that the iTV device would have little impact on the pay-TV ecosystem, since major cable TV networks and pay-TV providers will resist Apple's attempts to reinvent their business models. However, I suggested that Steve Jobs could have a trick or two up his sleeve for the iTV's launch. Sure enough, 99-cent broadcast TV rentals, announced just weeks prior to the Fall TV season kickoff, would be a very good trick indeed.
Categories: Broadcasters, Devices
Topics: Apple, CBS, Disney, FOX
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For Broadcast TV Networks, Google TV is Friend, Not Foe
Reading this morning's WSJ story, "Google TV Is a Tough Sell Among Would-Be Partners," you get the impression that broadcast TV networks are viewing Google TV as a potential disruptor of their business models. While the networks should take time to fully understand Google's new product, plus
assess additional work being asked of them (e.g. enhanced metadata) and how their programs will be incorporated in Google TV's UI, on the whole, broadcast TV networks should view Google TV as beneficial, not disruptive, to their digital distribution efforts.
Broadcast networks are right to be concerned about what effect viewing on any new digital device will have on their on-air business models. I've written often about my concern that the networks' web sites and Hulu's "ad-lite" approach was threatening to their on-air economics. However, more recently the networks (and likely Hulu) have been increasing their digital ad loads. ABC for one has said that digital delivery profitability is already on a par with "DVR economics" (accounting for ad-skipping by DVR households), and more ads will only further enhance digital's ROI. Certainly ABC's decision to make its programs available on the iPad is evidence that proper monetization, along with a coherent windowing approach, can yield incremental views and profits from distribution to new devices.
Categories: Broadcasters, Devices
Topics: ABC, CBS, FOX, Google TV, NBC
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7 Quick Reactions to Hulu Plus
Hulu unveiled its much-rumored subscription service this afternoon, dubbed "Hulu Plus." I haven't used the new service, but based on the explanation and the teaser video, here are 7 quick reactions:
1. Is there consumer demand for Hulu Plus? - This looms as the fundamental question that will be answered as Hulu Plus rolls out. From CEO Jason Kilar's blog post, it appears that, at least initially, Hulu Plus is a bet on consumers having an appetite for a library of broadcast network programs since that's all that's been highlighted so far. Hulu identifies about 2,000 library episodes in addition to current seasons. Unless Hulu Plus really beefs up its catalog, it won't be long before the library holds few surprises for returning visitors.
2. Hulu Plus lacks many of Netflix's advantages - It's tempting to think of Hulu Plus competing directly with Netflix, and to an extent of course they're after the same general target consumer. But Netflix has several very significant advantages: a brand that's identified with subscriptions and 14 million+ currently paying subscribers, a deep DVD library of 100,000+ titles (which has every single episode Hulu Plus will be offering), a streaming library of 17,000+ titles (offered at no extra cost to subscribers) and integrations with all the same devices Hulu Plus is touting (except the iPhone, which is coming soon). Further, Netflix has far deeper resources; it is a public company with a $6 billion market cap that spends $250 million/year on marketing and has publicly-stated commitment to obtain more streaming rights from Hollywood. With Netflix on one side and cable on another, it's unclear how Hulu Plus will expand its menu. I don't see Hulu Plus diminishing Netflix's rapid growth.
3. Ads in Hulu Plus would be a big-time buzz-kill - I did a double-take when I first read this line in Jason's post: "Hulu Plus is a new revolutionary, ad-supported subscription product that is incremental and complementary to the existing Hulu service." Whoa - are there going to be ads in Hulu Plus? That will be a flat-out non-starter for many prospective subscribers. Yes, I know about ad-supported cable networks, but that's for first-run programming, not for library or catch-up fare. Hulu Plus must be an ad-free zone. Meanwhile, it's important that Hulu still prove the 100% ad-supported business model for its existing experience. With much in flux regarding ad loads there's new messaging Hulu will likely be rolling there too.
4. Why wasn't Android or Google TV mentioned? - Is it a little weird that there was no mention of Android or Google TV in today's unveiling? I think so. Android is fast-gaining on the iPhone (surpassed by some metrics) and Google TV is poised to make a big splash in the fall. Why no mention? Is there an anti-Google bias at work?
5. Hulu Plus adds more support for HTML5 - Hulu Plus is another boost for HTML5 and another small dent for Flash. By making Hulu Plus available on non-Flash supported Apple devices, the it seems the Hulu team has been willing to make the investment to diversify beyond Flash, which it has used since launch.
6. Comcast must already be considering how it exits the Hulu joint venture - When the Comcast-NBCU deal clears, Comcast will inherit NBCU's ownership stake in Hulu. With Hulu Plus it's hard to see why Comcast will want to retain that stake. There's no discernible benefit to Comcast owning a minority position in a new over-the-top subscription service that whets the appetite of potential cord-cutters. It's one thing for selective NBC programs to be freely available for catch-up on Hulu.com, but a deeper library in a paid subscription service? No way, especially not as Comcast is trying to build value in its own TV Everywhere service.
7. Hulu gets credit for a well-executed launch - Stepping back, the Hulu team deserves credit for keeping its subscription under tight wraps and executing a solid launch. There have been no shortage of rumors, but to my knowledge there haven't been any specifically identifiable leaks in the Hulu ship. That's a big accomplishment, especially when you consider how many people must have had knowledge of the plans. The launch includes a well-articulated CEO message, a nicely-done sizzle reel (that is in Flash, which makes it not viewable on the iPad or iPhone!), several device integrations and a roadmap of add-ons, and a slow-rollout plan that will generate excitement among early adopters.
There are still many unknowns about Hulu Plus, but for now this is plenty to chew on.
What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
Topics: ABC, Android, CBS, FOX, Google, Hulu, NBC
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Here's What Fox, NBC and Hulu are Doing with Increased Online Ad Loads
Get ready to see more ads in TV programs viewed online. Following my exclusive 2 weeks ago about ABC doubling the number of ads in its iPad app, and soon on ABC.com, the same increased ad load is happening with Fox's and NBC's online programs, and in my opinion, likely with Hulu as well. Here's what I've learned:
Categories: Advertising, Broadcasters
Topics: ABC, CBS, FOX, Hulu, NBC
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